On the heels of their “Top Risks for 2010” report, the Eurasia Group released its “2010 Leaders to Watch” list, highlighting the world leaders that are expected to make the biggest impact on the world this year. Not surprisingly, considering that U.S./China relations claimed the top spot in the “Top Risks” report, number one and number two on the leaders list are Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and U.S. President Barack Obama. The top five leaders are discussed below:
Wen Jiabao, China – “Having guided China through the worst of the economic crisis, Premier Wen Jiabao, the head of China’s sprawling state bureaucracies, now faces the equally difficult task of shifting Chinese policy from stimulating the economy to containing inflation and preventing asset bubbles.”
Barack Obama, United States – “This year may define the presidency of Barack Obama. He enters 2010 with diminished approval ratings, high unemployment, a massive deficit and poor prospects for the Democratic Party in mid-term elections in November.
On issues of critical importance to his agenda, he has ceded considerable responsibility to Congress to determine timelines and details—which the legislature will be reluctant to give back.
Ichiro Ozawa, Japan – “If he survives the scandal that threatens to engulf him, Ichiro Ozawa has the opportunity to maneuver the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to victory in upper-house elections in July, giving it firm control over the government. Ozawa holds no cabinet position, but he is the most powerful politician in the DPJ, controlling its finances, electoral strategy, and the candidate-selection process as its secretary-general.”
David Cameron, United Kingdom – “If, as expected, the Conservative (Tory) Party wins national parliamentary elections in May, its leader David Cameron will take over as prime minister of a troubled country. The UK is still struggling to overcome a recession, a real estate bubble, and a serious crisis in its all-important financial sector.”
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil – “As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva begins his final year in office, he looks set to go out with a bang. Brazil is quickly recovering from the global economic downturn; Lula and his relatively market-friendly economic policies are closely associated with Brazil’s economic success. Internationally, he will utilize this appeal to pursue a larger role for Brazil in developing multilateral policies—in forums like the G20 and at climate change negotiations.
Rounding out the rest of the top 10 are: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran; Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan; Vladimir Putin, Russia; Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates; and Olli Rehn, European Union.
Iceland has not had much good publicity in the past two years, and it doesn’t look like that will change any time soon.
Back in 2008, Iceland’s government and economy essentially collapsed, leaving the country’s 304,000 residents in despair after what is now called the largest banking collapse in economic history.
Now into 2010, the country is still reeling from the financial crisis that severely weakened the value of its currency, caused a 90% drop in capitalization of its stock exchange and decreased its GDP by 5.5% in the first six months of 2009.
But Iceland’s residents were not the only ones hurting.
The millions of foreign depositors who had chosen the country’s banks as a safe-haven for their savings were faced with the grim reality that every penny that had deposited there was now frozen. Though Britain and the Netherlands stepped in to refund the savers, Iceland is still in debt to those two countries.
The Icelandic banks and their online subsidiaries with their high interest rates had attracted many savers from Britain and the Netherlands. When the banks collapsed 15 months ago, the British and Dutch governments stepped in to refund their savers who lost money. Britain and the Netherlands then negotiated a deal with the Icelandic government to be reimbursed for the money they paid out, and that bill was passed by the Icelandic parliament. Last week, though, President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson refused to sign the bill.
Grimsson references the Icelandic Constitution, stating that a referendum must now happen since he has received a petition signed by a quarter of the country’s population, which urged the president to renegotiate the terms of the repayment.
The loan carries a 5.5% interest rate and some feel that the if Iceland were to repay with the current terms, it could potentially cause a national bankruptcy.
Steingrimur Sigfusson, Iceland’s finance minister, understands that the issue is extremely unpopular among residents, but that in order to move forward and continue with economic restoration, the country must meet its obligations.
Whether a referendum happens or not, Sigfusson says, there is something deeper going on in Iceland–a moving away from what he calls the culture of neo-liberal greed and a returning home to its Nordic roots.
Whether or not Iceland will be able to dig itself out of this financial, political and economic conundrum and return to its Nordic roots will remain to be seen. Taking into account the country’s recent track record and its diminutive size in both population and world power, the odds are against it.
A group of notable industry insiders gathered Tuesday to participate in the “View From the Inside Looking Out,” the panel discussion at the 14th annual Property/Casualty Joint Industry Forum. I was lucky enough to attend this event, held at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in Midtown Manhattan. It seemed as though every major insurance/reinsurance group was represented, along with financial corporations and regulating organizations.
The topic of conversation focused mostly on the performance of the P/C market during the financial downturn and the future of industry regulation.
“The worst of the financial crisis is over, but we still need to avoid inflation,” said Jay Gelb, director of senior equity research at Barclays Capital. “I don’t think the P/C industry is going to see positive growth anytime soon, however.”
Jay added, “The U.S. P/C industry is probably overcapitalized by 20% and we see underwriting losses continuing to rise.”
Joseph Guastella, head of Deloitte’s Global Insurance Practice, agreed. “I think it will start to trend up in 2011, but still a moderate growth at that time. The industry as a whole is going to be a pretty flat market for a while.”
In terms of regulation, both for the insurance and financial industry, the panelists had much to say about the reform they see emerging.
“We need some kind of mechanism for looking cross-sectorally for systemic risk,” said Therese Vaughn, CEO of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. “What’s going on in DC is less likely to impact regulation than what’s going on globally. International standards are going to become more and more important.”
“I think a systemic risk regime is a bad idea,” said Scott Harrington, professor of health care management and insurance and risk management at Wharton School of Business. “It’s probably the single most destructive idea.”
“What we think will actually evolve is probably less sweeping than we thought six months ago,” said Joseph Guastella.
Though many of the panelists agreed that the P/C sector performed relatively well in the midst of an economic downturn, they all agreed that they should not be overly confident and that the future of the industry requires cautious optimism.
“No one knows with precision, no one can confirm a figure,” Victor Jackson, an assistant national coordinator with Haiti’s Red Cross, told Reuters news service when giving the estimated death toll. “We also think there are 3 million people affected throughout the country, either injured or homeless.”
President Obama has pledged an initial $100 million towards recovery efforts, which come in addition to the on-the-ground efforts that Washington is contributing, which Hillary Clinton spoke about on the Today Show this morning in the video below (via The Lede).
“We are doing all we can to can to figure out how to best attack the devastation all around. This is going to be a long-term effort. We have the immediate crisis of trying to save those lives that can be saved, to deal with the injured and the dead, to try to provide some food, water, medical supplies, some semblence of shelter. And then [we have] to work with our Haitian partners, the government of Haiti, NGOs, others to begin the rebuilding process.”
The Secretary’s added these thoughts on the communications challenge:
The President thankfully is safe — he has nowhere to live, his home was in the palace. He is working closely with those members of his government that can be located and communicated with. We have brought in communications systems to try to create some means for the government to function.
She also announced that the TEXT “HAITI” TO 90999 campaign has raised $3 million so far through the Red Cross and that anyone looking for information about loved ones who may have been affected by the disaster can call 1-888-407-4747 to contact the State Department Operations Center.
President Obama promised an all-out rescue and humanitarian effort including military and civilian emergency teams from across the U.S. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson was expected to arrive off the coast Thursday, and the Navy said the amphibious assault ship USS Bataan had been ordered to sail as soon as possible with a 2,000-member Marine unit. An advance group of more than 100 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division will leave Fort Bragg in North Carolina on Thursday to prepare for the arrival of several hundred more from the division on Friday.
The Pentagon’s Southern Command dispatched a 30-member assessment team to work out of the U.S. Embassy, the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson toward the coast, a reconnaissance plane to survey the damage and Coast Guard aircraft to evacuate some of the 45,000 Americans in Haiti.
Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, the Southcom chief, also said the Pentagon might deploy an amphibious Navy ship with a Marine expeditionary unit and possibly thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. They could help distribute relief supplies and keep the peace.
The Pentagon’s Southern Command dispatched a 30-member assessment team to work out of the U.S. Embassy, the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson toward the coast, a reconnaissance plane to survey the damage and Coast Guard aircraft to evacuate some of the 45,000 Americans in Haiti.
Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, the Southcom chief, also said the Pentagon might deploy an amphibious Navy ship with a Marine expeditionary unit and possibly thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. They could help distribute relief supplies and keep the peace.
The global relief effort did pick up steam Thursday with the arrival of an Air China flight carrying search-and-rescue teams, medics, trained search dogs and aid supplies. A British flight with a government assessment team and 71 rescue specialists along with heavy equipment arrived in the neighboring Dominican Republic. The crew prepared to head to Haiti. A Los Angeles County Fire Department 72-member search team left for the Caribbean island nation late Wednesday.
The United Nations released $10 million from its emergency funds, even as U.N. forces in Haiti struggled with their own losses. The U.N. headquarters building collapsed in Port-au-Prince, and at least 16 personnel are confirmed dead, with up to 150 still missing, including mission director Hedi Annabi of Tunisia and his chief deputy, Luis Carlos da Costa.
“We’ll be using whatever roads are passable to get aid to Port-au-Prince, and if possible we’ll bring helicopters in,” said Emilia Casella, a spokeswoman for the U.N. food agency in Geneva.The global relief effort did pick up steam Thursday with the arrival of an Air China flight carrying search-and-rescue teams, medics, trained search dogs and aid supplies. A British flight with a government assessment team and 71 rescue specialists along with heavy equipment arrived in the neighboring Dominican Republic. The crew prepared to head to Haiti. A Los Angeles County Fire Department 72-member search team left for the Caribbean island nation late Wednesday.
As most in the disaster recovery business know, we are now moving past the 36-hour mark, beyond which a lot of noble rescue efforts start to prove ineffectual. The next 12-24 hours will be vital in trying to rescue as many survivors as possible and getting people the basic water, food, medical care and shelter they need.
You can see more on the unimaginable difficulties that the authorities are facing in the (graphic) video below. (via CNN.com)
Godspeed.
Bill Clinton has also articulated exactly “What Haiti Needs” in a piece he wrote for Time.
We need to get as much equipment as we can into Haiti. The military is sending in helicopters, and there will probably be a need for it to supply some logistics and communications support. The U.S. is going to have to carry a lot of the load there early on. But it’s very important that the U.S., which is so pivotal to this emergency period, work very closely with the U.N. peacekeeping mission stationed in Haiti, which is very well organized and is operating well. In fact, the U.N. system has already swung into action: it has offered $10 million in immediate emergency relief and organized food relief through the World Food Programme. There are hundreds of thousands of people that are going to be coming out of there alive that have to be cared for; the World Health Organization is trying to meet the health care needs.
The international relief effort that followed the Asian tsunami of 2004 offers some lessons that can be applied in Haiti. First of all, there has to be national buy-in by the U.S. There has to be a national vision, and I think we have that. Secondly, coordination is really important both within the U.N. and among all the donor countries and nongovernmental groups. There are 10,000 nongovernmental organizations working in Haiti, the highest number per capita in the world except for India. We’ve got to all work together toward a common goal. We have to relentlessly focus on trying to build a model that will be sustainable, so we don’t plant a bunch of trees and then revert to deforestation, or adopt a program to bring power to the country that can’t be sustained, or adopt an economic strategy that is going to wither away in two years.
I’m trying now to get organized to make sure not only that we get the emergency aid that Haiti needs but also that donors come through on their pre-existing commitments. We need to keep the private sector involved. Once we deal with the immediate crisis, the development plans the world was already pursuing have to be implemented more quickly and on a broader scale. I’m interested in just pressing ahead with it.
Thankfully, he also offers something we can all use right now: Hope.
Haiti isn’t doomed. Let’s not forget, the damage from the earthquake is largely concentrated in the Port-au-Prince area. That has meant a tragic loss of life, but it also means there are opportunities to rebuild in other parts of the island. So all the development projects, the agriculture, the reforestation, the tourism, the airport that needs to be built in the northern part of Haiti — everything else should stay on schedule. Then we should simply redouble our efforts once the emergency passes to do the right sort of construction in Port-au-Prince and use it to continue to build back better.
Before this disaster, Haiti had the best chance in my lifetime to fulfill its potential as a country, to basically escape the chains of the past 200 years. I still believe that if we rally around them now and support them in the right way, the Haitian people can reclaim their destiny.
