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Managing Sanctions Risk from Russia’s War on Ukraine

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Since Russia began attacking Ukraine on February 24, thousands of people have been killed and over a million people have had to flee their homes, presenting one of the largest refugee crises Europe has ever experienced. In addition to the tragic human losses, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered wide-ranging economic impacts. Among them, the European Union, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Japan and others have enacted sweeping financial sanctions on Russia in an effort to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict. These sanctions have targeted Russia’s financial system and its international financial connections by restricting transactions between Russian banks and those in other countries, most notably through the SWIFT global financial network.

The economic impacts of these sanctions will likely affect many industries around the world, whether organizations deal with Russia directly or indirectly through third countries. In a briefing yesterday, global risk consultancy Control Risks discussed some of the risk management considerations and steps companies need to take as the sanctions landscape continues to evolve. According to panelist Henry Smith, partner and head of business intelligence and due diligence in EMEA at Control Risks, there are five key areas risk professionals should focus on to address the risk facing their companies as a result of these sanctions:

  1. What are your nexuses to Russia (including outside Russia)? Organizations need to look at their touchpoints with Russia, including investors and shareholders, lenders and banks, direct and indirect clients, contractual counterparties, and goods and services sourced directly or indirectly from Russia.
  2. Which sanctions apply to your organization?
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    The applicability of sanctions will vary based on your sector, the nationality of the people within the organization, and the currencies you use. It is helpful to note that, currently, there is greater consensus among various sanctions regimes so you may not have to parse through conflicting degrees of severity—consistent sanctions against Russia are being imposed, at least across most Western countries.
  3. What risks are you exposed to? Conduct a risk assessment around which sanctions you are exposed to and whether there are any business activities, relationships or practices you need to end or change in some way. This involves regularly screening Russian counterparties against sanctions lists and undertaking detailed analysis of higher-risk relationships.
  4. How do you respond? Review the implications of any decisions on employees and on contractual obligations, both with direct and third-party clients. Consider any impact winding down activities in one area may have on other business areas. Be sure to engage with regulators, enforcement agencies, banks and insurers for guidance.
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  5. What do you do as sanctions regimes evolve? Sanctions will change in response to security and political developments over the coming weeks and months, so it is important to stay informed of any communications from authorities.
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    Review and read guidance from regulators, enforcement agencies, banks and insurers, and benchmark with industry peers to make sure you can still operate effectively.

Overall, when deciding whether to continue doing business with Russia, companies will need to consider both reputational and ESG-based perspectives as well as practical issues around your ability to do business, such as maintaining the working capital required to continue operations and ensuring that goods and services can still move through the supply chain.

Experts expect that the Russia-Ukraine crisis will have a long-term impact on the global economy and many effects of these sanctions may not be felt for weeks or months. Companies will need to remain vigilant in order to stay ahead of the risks.

A TechRisk/RiskTech Reading List from Risk Management Magazine

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Last week, the RIMS TechRisk/RiskTech virtual event featured two days of education content on some of the biggest challenges and opportunities in modern risk management, focusing extensively on cyberrisk as well as risktech—the latest technology tools and techniques for managing risk. As the presentations made clear, technology introduces some of the greatest risks to organizations, but also some of the most promising innovations to introduce or enhance risk management.

“We all know that, ‘As fast as a business develops a strategy to protect their organization’s digital assets, cyber predators have already figured out their next move,’” said Patrick Sterling, vice president of legendary people and risk management at Texas Roadhouse Restaurants and 2022 president of RIMS. “So, risk professionals must do what risk professionals do best: We must adapt. And we must adapt quickly.”

“We can’t forget about the risks that preceded this pandemic, and top on that list stands technology,” Sterling added in his address during the event. “Cyber gets a bad rap—when we talk about risk, we must remember risk can lead to positive outcomes. While greater dependency on technology has opened the door to more threats, it also allows us to improve processes, keep employees safe, boost efficiencies and engage our customers in a whole new way.”

As a RIMS virtual event, the content from TechRisk/RiskTech will be available for attendees or new registrants to view on-demand for the next 60 days, and you can check out the sessions here.

Following the TechRisk/RiskTech event and last Friday’s international Data Privacy Day, risk professionals who want to learn more about cyberrisk and risktech topics can also check out a wealth of related articles from Risk Management Magazine. Whether you would like to keep up the education after attending TechRisk/Risktech or just want to catch up on topics like cyberrisk, ransomware, cyber insurance, risktech, artificial intelligence, the internet of things and connected devices, and other technology that can help manage risk, here’s a roundup of recent Risk Management articles on cyberrisk and risktech:

Tech Risk (Cyberrisk):

Risktech:

What Employers Need to Know About Federal COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates

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In an effort to combat the COVID-19 virus and its subsequent variants, the Biden administration has instituted three important mandates that employers should be aware of as they may impact their business. First, the Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS), issued by the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), requires that all employers with 100+ employees mandate vaccination or weekly testing. The second mandate involves federal workers and contractors and requires them to obtain a vaccination without any option for weekly testing. The final mandate was issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and requires vaccination of all healthcare workers at CMS-covered facilities.

OSHA’s Emergency Temporary Standard

The mandate that has the most wide-ranging impact is Occupational Health and Safety Administration’s (OSHA) Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) that calls for employers with 100 or more employees to either require employees to obtain a COVID-19 vaccination or to prove compliance with a weekly-testing program. This ETS is expected to affect over 80 million employees. 

On December 17, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals lifted the stay placed on OSHA’s ETS issued by the Fifth Circuit in November. The court held that OSHA does have statutory authority to mandate national vaccines and/or testing for employers with more than 100 employees. Specifically, it outlined that because COVID-19 is a virus that causes bodily harm, OSHA was well within its administrative authority to regulate the health and safety of employees. 

Since the Sixth Circuit’s decision to dissolve the stay, OSHA announced that it will not be issuing citations for noncompliance with the ETS requirements until January 10 and the testing requirements will not be enforced until February 9 with the caveat that the employer must make good faith efforts to come into compliance as soon as possible.

After this ruling by the Sixth Circuit, eight groups challenged the OSHA vaccine mandate and filed emergency applications with the U.S. Supreme Court asking it to stay the mandate again until the case can be heard in the highest court. On December 20, the Supreme Court requested a response from the federal government by December 30. And, on December 22, in an almost unprecedented move, the Supreme Court ordered oral argument on these emergency applications, which will take place on January 7.

Despite the fact that the validity of the ETS is now squarely before the Supreme Court, employers should still operate as if the ETS will go into immediate effect. OSHA has implemented new deadlines to reflect the current status of the ETS.

By January 10, employers should:

  • Track employee vaccination status
  • Create a database detailing vaccination information for each employee
  • Require unvaccinated employees to wear a mask
  • Provide paid time off for employees to get vaccinated and recover

As of February 9, 2022, employers must also require unvaccinated employees must start testing for COVID weekly. Self-administered or self-read tests would not comply. Employers must observe or use a proctor and have employees tested on site, or at a recognized testing facility.

The Mandate for Federal Employees and Contractors

The second mandate stems from President Biden’s executive order that requires most federal employees or contractors to get vaccinated. This mandate does not have a testing option.

On December 7, the U.S. District Court for the Southern Section of Georgia granted a preliminary injunction to temporarily halt the enforcement of the Biden’s administration’s vaccine mandate for federal contractors.The court found that the administration had overstepped the bounds of it authority under the Federal Property and Administrative Services Act 40 U.S.C. 101 et. seq. The injunction effectively prohibits enforcement of the federal contractor vaccine mandate in all 50 states and any territory of the United States. However, on December 17, the Eleventh Circuit, denied the government’s motion to stay. This effectively upheld the injunction. The court found that the government had failed to show that it “would be irreparably harmed absent a stay.”

The CMS Mandate

The third mandate is an interim file rule of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which requires vaccination of all healthcare workers at CMS-covered facilities throughout the United States. The CMS mandate is currently enjoined by court order in 25 states and continues in full effect in 25 other states. After the ruling by the Fifth Circuit in November, however, CMS suspended implementation and enforcement of the mandate pending resolution of the challenges before the Supreme Court.

RIMS Risk Forum India 2021: Building Resilience As COVID, Cyberrisk Top Business Risks

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An increasingly key theme year over year, resilience is at the root of the latest Excellence in Risk Management India report from Marsh and RIMS—and the RIMS Risk Forum India 2021 virtual event, where the report was officially released today. In the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, risk professionals in India reported acute short- and long-term concerns about the interconnected risks of COVID-19 cases, global economic recession, and surging cyberrisks amid shifts in work arrangements.

In addition to the death of more than 5 million people in India, the pandemic has taken a considerable economic toll on the region. “According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), India’s economy contracted by close to 8% in 2020, while the world’s economy contracted by 3.5%,” the report noted. “Despite the OECD’s projections for economic expansion—both in India and globally—in 2021 and 2022, the potential for a prolonged global recession remains a concern for organizations in India.

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Previously one of the top risks for India-based risk professionals before COVID-19, cyberrisk has also increased significantly with the pandemic and the shift to remote work. “The shift to a remote workforce necessitated by sweeping lockdowns to stem the spread of the pandemic is widely seen as having increased cyberrisk,” Marsh and RIMS noted. “The Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) data indicated that cyberattacks in India rose by 300% in 2020, according to news reports. And cyber risk remained elevated in 2021, with more than 600,000 cybersecurity incidents reported in the first six months of the year alone, according to CERT.”

The continuing pandemic, resulting fallout, and ever-growing cyberrisk have presented the biggest risks for organizations in India in 2021, and the survey indicates that local risk professionals expect these to dominate the agenda for businesses in the year to come.

Despite the considerable concern, few respondents said their company is fully prepared for the continued fallout from COVID-19 or future pandemics. Asked to rate their organization’s preparedness from 1 to 5 (not prepared to fully prepared, respectively), the majority of India-based risk professionals ranked their organization a 3, and only 10% said they are fully prepared. While cyberrisk has been a top threat for longer, preparation is not much better for the threat—only a quarter of Indian companies said they are fully prepared for a cyberattack. This is particularly concerning as “some extent of remote work is expected to remain, leading to concerns of increased cyberattacks due to unsecured home networks,” Marsh said in a press release.

According to the report, this underscores the imperative to develop robust risk management strategies for both current and emerging risks and to focus on building resilience. Marsh identified four “common behaviors among companies that are on the path to becoming more resilient”: anticipating risk, connecting risk management to business strategy, avoiding gaps in the perception of preparedness, and measuring relevant data. Marsh and RIMS explained these further, defining key pillars that have set successful businesses apart, and potentially also offering considerations for other organizations to develop more mature risk management programs:

  • Anticipation: Resilient companies expect the unexpected. They have crisis management plans in place, but they also dig deeper, look farther ahead. Consider that during the pandemic even organizations with thorough business continuity plans struggled. Why? Many of them didn’t fully anticipate the widespread, long-lasting damage a pandemic could create.
  • Integration: Another key behavior among resilient organizations is to fully integrate risk management with operations and strategy. Doing so increases the ability to develop effective responses. Most organizations do not connect resilience planning with their long-term investment strategy. Those that do make the connection are on the path to better mitigating financial exposure, reputational damage, business interruption, and other losses.
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  • Preparedness: On the journey to resilience, it’s important to develop an accurate perception of an organization’s preparedness. A false sense of security can halt an organization in its tracks. Companies often overestimate how quickly and effectively they will be able to respond to and recover from a given risk.
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  • Measurement: There is no shortage of data and analytics in today’s business environment. But consistently applying metrics can be a stumbling block. Many companies fail to conduct a high rate of modeling and forecasting even on risks they see as important. And among the companies that do so, most only model in select areas.

Marsh and RIMS recommended that organizations in India focus on resilience heading into 2022 and beyond. “Resilience means being able to absorb the impact from a range of emerging risks and depends in large part on having robust risk management strategies in place,” the report explained. “This includes anticipating risk, connecting risk management to business strategy, ensuring your organization’s perception of preparedness doesn’t lead to a false sense of security, and measuring relevant data.”

Respondents largely indicated that their organization planned to increase investment in risk management, with 55% saying they expect increased resources, 27% expecting investment to stay the same, and only 4% expecting a decrease. This could be a critical differentiator in navigating COVID-19 recovery and other emerging risks in 2022. Indeed, 42% cited budget at the most critical barrier to understanding the impact of emerging risks on risk management.

Among the takeaways from the report, Marsh and RIMS urged organizations to invest in preparedness. “Look beyond pandemic as you develop a risk management strategy that is prepared to respond to any number of emerging risks,” the report said. “For example, shifting work patterns have intensified an already escalating cyber risk landscape that calls for a range of responses, from scenario planning to financial quantification.”

In addition to a panel on the Excellence in Risk Management India report, the RIMS Risk Forum India 2021 virtual event includes a number of sessions that address resilience challenges and opportunities for risk professionals in India. The program includes keynote addresses by Ajay Srinivasan, chief executive officer at Aditya Birla Capital Limited (ABCL), and Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor at the State Bank of India, as well as education sessions like “Cyber Risk Management: A Priority for a Resilient Economy,” “Climate Risk and Your Path to Resilience,” “What COVID-19 Has Taught Us About ESG Risks and Why Risk Management Needs to Change,” and “Breaking the Chain: How Understanding Business Interruption Exposures Can Mean Supply Chain Resilience.”

The RIMS Risk Forum India 2021 virtual event continues tomorrow, December 4, and sessions will also be available for on-demand viewing for the next 60 days. Registration can be found here: https://www.rims.org/events/rf/india-forum-2021