Lloyd’s Finds Extreme Weather Can Be Accurately Modeled Independently

In a new report based on research from UK national weather service the Met Office, Lloyd’s has found that extreme weather events may be modeled independently. While extreme weather can be related to events within a region, these perils are not significant correlated with perils in other regions of the world.

The study’s key findings include:

  • Met Office research found that the majority of perils are not significantly correlated, but identified nine noteworthy peril-to-peril teleconnections, most of which are negatively correlated
  • Lloyds’ modeling finds that these correlations were not substantial enough to warrant changes to the amount of capital it holds to cover extreme weather claims
  • Even when there is some correlation between weather patterns, it does not necessarily follow that there will be large insurance losses. Extreme weather events may still occur simultaneously even if there is no link between them
  • An assumption of independence for capital-holding purposes is therefore appropriate for the key risks the Lloyd’s market currently insures
  • The methodology released in the report enables scenario modeling across global portfolios for appropriate region-perils

“This important finding supports the broader argument that the global reinsurance industry’s practice of pooling risks in multiple regions is capital efficient and that modeling appropriate region perils as independent is reasonable,” the report concluded.

According to Trevor Maynard, head of exposure management and reinsurance at Lloyd’s, “This challenges the increasingly held view among some regulators around the world that capital for local risks should be held in their own jurisdictions. Lloyd’s believes this approach reduces the capital efficiency of the (re)insurance market by ignoring the diversification benefits provided by writing different risks in different locations and, in so doing, needlessly increases costs, to the ultimate detriment of policyholders. Insisting on the fragmentation of capital is not in the best interests of policyholders.”

Check out the map below for further insight from the Met Office about large-scale weather perils that do demonstrate statistically significant correlation:

lloyd's extreme weather perils

Recap of 2016 Weather Events

The 2016 hurricane season, which ends today, has been the deadliest since 2005 and the most active and costliest since 2012. In all there were 15 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major hurricanes. Hurricane Matthew, a Category 5, was responsible for more than 1,600 deaths and insured loss estimates of about $7 billion.

Other major storms that hit the United States in 2016 include Winter Storm Jonas, Louisiana flooding, hailstorms, tornadoes and hurricanes. For a recap of 2016 storms check out Interstate’s year-in-review infographic:
yearinreviewinfographic

KCC Estimates $7B Insured Damages from Hurricane Matthew

Based on high-resolution storm surge, inland flooding and wind models, Karen Clark & Co. said today that it estimates insurers will pay $7 billion for damages in the United States resulting from Hurricane Matthew.

The storm weakened and stayed further off the Florida coast than was initially projected by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). While it stayed offshore, other than a brief landfall in South Carolina, Hurricane Matthew caused extensive wind, storm surge, and inland flooding damage.
kcc-totals

KCC said in a flash bulletin that it tracked the event using forecast data from the NHC and RiskInsight’s advanced module, WindfieldBuilder, which automatically creates a high-resolution wind footprint for each storm advisory so that losses and numbers of claims can be estimated for specific portfolios along with the likely locations of claims.

Hurricane-force winds of more than 74 mph were experienced along limited sections of Florida’s coastline, most notably areas between Cape Canaveral and St. Augustine, damaging residential and commercial structures including roofs, windows, awnings, and signage.

As the track of the storm veered closer to the coastline near Savannah, hurricane-force winds again impacted properties along the coast, KCC said. The most impacted coastal areas include:

  • Daytona Beach, Florida
  • Tybee Island, Georgia
  • Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

kcc-surge-map

Along the coast there were isolated pockets of significant storm surge and resulting property losses. As Matthew tracked parallel to the coastline for a distance, many other areas experienced minor storm surge damage.

The table below shows the measured precipitation for a few cities in North Carolina, where water levels are expected to exceed the 500-year flood levels for the second time in 20 years:
kcc-flood-totals

Recovering from Hurricane Matthew

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Many organizations in the southeastern United States recovering from Hurricane Matthew are still dealing with downed power lines, swollen rivers and blocked roads. As soon as they are able to, business owners should start assessing damage to their property and begin their insurance recovery process. They will need to assess not only physical damage to their property but also any income losses that may have occurred as a result of flooded and blocked roads and bridges, interrupted shipping and air transport, evacuations, and closures by civil authority.

They need to gather the information they’ll need for their insurer, and also be familiar with their policy and policy language. “In the runup to a storm, we always hear insurance executives on the news assuring the public that they will take care of things—that policyholders can rest assured,” Marshall Gilinsky, a shareholder in the insurance recovery group at Anderson Kill P.C., said in a statement. “But it’s vital for businesses not to assume everything’s going to be taken care of automatically. Storm-related claims can run into a snarl of unclear policy provisions, sublimits and exclusions, and occasionally obstreperous insurance company adjusters. A false sense of security leads easily to lost insurance proceeds.”

Businesses impacted by the storm that have flood insurance, he said, “should look for coverage not only for physical damage to their premises due to any flooding, but also business interruption and contingent business interruption coverage.” For best results, they should be sure they are up-to-date on how their insurer defines and invokes sublimits for “flood,” “storm surge” and “named storms” and how their insurer deals with claims that include damages from both wind and flood, Gilinsky said.

According to Galinsky, the following coverages (and coverage limits) will apply in a storm’s aftermath:

Business interruption or BI covers businesses for losses stemming from unavoidable interruptions in their daily operations.  BI coverage may be triggered by circumstances including a forced shut-down, a downturn in business due to damage to premises, or a substantial impairment in access to a business’s plant or premises.

Businesses that are not themselves forced to close may be able to tap contingent business interruption coverage, triggered when policyholders do not themselves suffer physical damage but still lose revenue after a property loss sidelines a major supplier or customer base.  Contingent BI is a standard provision in many property insurance policies, though many small businesses are not aware of it.

Also in play will be coverage for evacuation by order of civil authority, triggered when authorities close off access to a damaged area – and ingress egress coverage, which insures lost profits due to difficulties in accessing the insured premises due to the storm. Again, damage to the insured’s own property is not required to trigger coverage — though typically, the losses must result from property damage of a type covered by the insurance policy.

“Too many businesses do not think about insurance unless their premises are damaged—or if they do, they fail to calculate the full range of loss,” Gilinsky said. “Small businesses in particular may not even be aware of their civil authority, ingress egress and business interruption coverage, let alone their contingent business interruption coverage.”

He also noted that many commercial property insurance policies provide different sublimits for losses caused by “flood,” “storm surge” and “named storms.” How the policy defines these key terms can be critical in determining the amount recoverable for the policyholder’s loss.

The Property Casualty Insurers Association of America offered the following tips to help businesses through their recovery process.

Business Recovery Information

  • In the aftermath of natural disasters, businesses should take immediate steps to minimize damage, speed up the claims process and accelerate business recovery. Assess the damage and report all damage to your insurance company agent as soon as possible.
  • Take pictures of your building and contents to document the damage.
  • Check for safety hazards, such as downed trees, branches, downed power wires and leaking gas.
  • Keep all receipts for anything purchased for that purpose so they can be submitted to your insurance company.
  • Be prepared to list the “replacement cost” of each item and its actual cash value. Replacement cost is what it would cost today to replace an item with another one just like it. Actual cash value is what the item is really worth after deducting for depreciation and wear.
  • Restore your utilities, phone service, gas lines and other important links as soon as possible.
  • Business interruption coverage is complex and will vary by insurers. It is important to read your policy and understand what is and is not covered.
  • As you seek contractors to make repairs, deal only with reliable, licensed professionals. Get written bids from the contractor, but don’t sign any contracts or give a deposit until you have seen your insurance adjuster.
  • If you or your employees get involved in clean-up efforts, use safety items like proper eyewear, gloves, hardhats, dust masks and respirators.
  • Keep detailed records of business activity and extra expenses during the interruption period, and prepare records to show the income from the business both before and after the loss.