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Preparing for Hurricane Season

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With less than two weeks weeks until the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, organizations and homeowners alike are hoping that this year’s season mirrors that of 2013, which was one of the quietest in 30 years. So far, most experts are predicting another relatively calm year.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project predicted below-average hurricane activity, with nine named stroms, three of which would be hurricance and only 1 would be a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). According to their research, there is only a 35% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States. the average for the last century has been 52%.

Accuweather.com predicted similar numbers with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. these number are all below normal levels as established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Of course, as Klotzbach and Gray point out, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for coastal residents.That means preparedness it vitally important. The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) recommends that property owners in at-risk regions focus on five areas to protect their property:

  1. Prepare your surroundings to reduce damage from wind-borne debris.
  2. Protect building openings.
  3. Strengthen roofs.
  4. Ensure the building is tied together (meaning that the roof is secured to the walls and the walls to the foundation).
  5. Properly elevate the building.

Business owners should also remember that sometimes risks can come from some unexpected places. In an article by Caroline McDonald in Risk Management, she spoke to Ron Hayes, who now works as a public entity commercial producer at Arthur J. Gallagher Risk Management Services. He was previously school board risk manager for the Calcasieu Parish, in Lake Charles, La., where he weathered Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and, a month later, Rita:

When law enforcement returned to police the community and prevent looting after Hurricane Rita, for example, they had 500 flat tires in the first week from running over nails and debris. “You don’t think about things like that until it happens,” he said. “Until you have the tire store up and running, what are you going to do?” The department has since made arrangements to access tires whenever needed. “Pre-storm planning is so important for post-storm recovery,” Hayes said.

The lesson, as always, is that being prepared is always a good thing. As the saying goes, it’s better to have and not need, than to need and not have.

2013 Hurricane Season: Active Storms Ahead

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Saturday, June 1, marks the beginning of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters from Colorado State University predict 18 named storms for the 2013 season, with nine of those forecasted to become hurricanes and four expected to be major hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center warns there could be even more storms to hit the Sunshine State — up to 20, in fact, compared to the average of 12. If these and other predictions are right, Florida will see its share of storms this season.

But Floridians are not oblivious to these stats. As the the June issue of Risk Management states:

Regardless of the predictions, many Floridians were already expecting to be hit. The state that is geographically most vulnerable to Atlantic storms and has the longest coastline among the lower 48 (1,350 miles) has been spared each of the past seven years. Hurricane Wilma, one of seven major hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the historic 2005 season (the year of Katrina), was the last storm to punish Florida.

With 2013’s predictions being far worse than those of 2012, businesses should begin preparing now. According to the Insurance Information Institute, 15 to 40% of businesses fail following a natural disaster.

Of those businesses that recover, on average, it takes about 11.5 days for them to become fully operational. This is a recipe for serious revenue and customer loss.

Bob Boyd, president and CEO of Agility Recovery, a provider of business continuity and disaster recovery solutions, provides the following advice for businesses in the path of hurricanes (or any natural disaster, for that matter).

Before the Storm

  • Ensure you have tested and activated your crisis communications plan prior to the storm’s approach. Even if the storm isn’t on a direct path to your location, activating this part of your plan will ensure reliable communications with your stakeholders.
  • Backup all data on servers and personal computers, and ensure you are able to remotely access and restore the data to an alternate site without delay.
  • Move vital records, equipment, supplies and inventory to a safe or fortified location.

    Postpone any future deliveries or shipments until the storm passes and transportation routes are passable.

  • Fill fuel tanks of generators and all company‐owned vehicles, and ensure employees are familiar with your emergency transportation plan for critical staff. Plan ahead for interruptions including curfews, law enforcement roadblocks, mass transit shut-downs, and impassable roads and bridges.
  • Enable remote access to your company’s website and social media channels to ensure constant communication with stakeholders. Contact the media ahead of time to make sure they know how to reach your leadership and spokespersons.

During the Storm

  • Ensure employees are away from wind and flood hazards and know the company policy regarding inclement weather. Take into account the fact that coastal flooding and storm surge are the most destructive and deadly forces during a hurricane.
  • Establish teams working on a 24-hour schedule to monitor any equipment that must consistently remain on line.
  • Preemptively shut off any unnecessary electrical switches to prevent surges or electrical shorts and accidents before the necessary checks are completed post-landfall.

After the Storm

  • Watch and listen to local news and online media channels for damage reports, transportation outages, lingering flooded areas and other potential dangers prior to assessing your facilities.
  • Establish and follow company policies for limiting access to your facilities until the area has been declared officially safe by local law enforcement, inspectors or company officials.
  • Begin contacting employees, suppliers, critical partners and other stakeholders to ensure their safety and ability to return to work.
  • Begin salvage as soon as possible to prevent further damage to facilities, inventory and assets. Begin work to restore any critical business functions that have been interrupted by the storm.

As we saw with the last two major hurricanes (Katrina and Sandy), preparation is paramount. In the New York area, Governor Cuomo marked this past week as Hurricane Preparedness Week — asking the state’s residents to review their preparations for the upcoming season. With 2013 predictions well above the seasonal average, this is advice every Atlantic coastal state should take seriously.

Another Active Hurricane Season Expected in 2013

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With the start of the Atlantic hurricane season only two weeks away, experts across the board are predicting another active season. Today, AccuWeather.com released its findings calling for 16 named tropical storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. They expect three hurricanes to make landfall in the United States. These numbers are all slight increases over the average numbers recorded by NOAA from 1981-2010 and are comparable to last year’s activity.

According to AccuWeather, the season should begin quickly after June 1, but isn’t anticipated to start as early as 2012 when two named storms appeared in May. However, 2013 could see stronger storms than last year due to the reduced amount of Saharan dust in the air, which can inhibit a storm’s severity.

In the May issue of Risk Management, Jared Wade wrote about how Floridians feel like they’re overdue for a hurricane having not experienced a landfall since Wilma in 2005. In addition to echoing that concern, AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said that one of the biggest fears regarding the upcoming hurricane season is the effect another major storm would have on the East Coast regions that still haven’t entirely recovered from Superstorm Sandy. Many areas still haven’t rebuilt the protective sand dune barriers that were washed away by Sandy, so another storm would put already reeling communities at an even higher risk for more flood damage.

Overall, AccuWeather’s numbers have been in line with forecasts by other organizations, suggesting that an active season, at least to experts, is almost certain (or at least as certain as any weather forecast can be).

For instance, the United Kingdom’s Met Office expects 14 named storms, nine hurricanes, while in April, Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, and Weather Services International forecasted 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

2011 Hurricane Predictions

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It may turn out to be a rough hurricane season ahead if forecasts from the team at Colorado State University prove true. The somewhat famous team (at least in these circles) of Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, predicted back in December that there would be 17 named storms. Late last week, that prediction was adjusted as the CSU team issued their latest hurricane predictions: 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

“We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season,” said Phil Klotzbach of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “We have reduced our forecast slightly from early December due to a combination of recent ocean warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and recent cooling in the tropical Atlantic.”

Though forecasts were adjusted downward slightly, Dr. Gray issued a warning:

“We remain – since 1995 – in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” said Gray. “Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”

The team’s probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil breaks down as follows:

  • 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
  • A 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
  • A 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
  • 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

Check out the May issue of Risk Management (available online May 1) for an article on the 2011 hurricane season and the science behind hurricane names.