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The 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

Atlantic hurricane season officially began recently, kicking off a disaster season that will run from June 1 through November 30. According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season will consist of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. This falls into a fairly average range, but “average” is a bit unusual under the conditions currently emerging around the season.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University notably marked the opening of the season with a revised forecast. After initially predicting slightly below-average hurricane activity in 2023, the researchers increased their estimates. Now, CSU is essentially predicting an average hurricane season, but one that is above-average for what is expected to be an El Niño year.

The last three hurricane seasons have been controlled by La Niña, which typically leads to more hurricane activity. While El Niño would typically help reduce such activity, current warmer water temperatures could ultimately cancel out most of that effect.

“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” CSU researchers explained. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”

CSU anticipates 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is right in line with the NOAA forecasts. However, CSU forecasters noted that this year’s outlook includes particular uncertainty due to these conflicting factors.

As the hurricane season gets underway, the following tips can help businesses update and strengthen natural disaster recovery plans:

Review your business interruption insurance. Business interruption insurance coverage plays a critical role in helping ensure complete recovery from a storm. BI coverage relies on accurately reported business values, however, and recent changes in property values, replacement and repair costs, and inflation all impact those current values. To avoid the risk of being severely underinsured, make sure your coverage has up-to-date valuations so that claims payouts will be robust enough to rebuild your business. Check out the May/June issue of Risk Management for more information about the importance of accurate business interruption values and best practices for preparing a business interruption claim

Update your current disaster recovery plan. It is crucial to keep your natural disaster recovery plan updated. Organizations have gone through massive change over the past few years, including different work locations due to hybrid or remote work, staffing changes, and new technology that may aid in emergency response. Ensure your organization’s disaster recovery plan reflects your current personnel, equipment, insurance policies and contacts, and make sure to distribute it among all current members of any emergency response teams or other key stakeholders.

Do a dry run. The only real way to know if your disaster recovery plan works is to put it to use, and you do not want to wait until a natural disaster is at hand to find out if it works. Practice various scenarios and have key players act out their roles to gauge the effectiveness of the plan and make changes accordingly.

Take preventative measures. To weather disaster response well, disaster preparation is essential. Take steps now to ensure the organization will be able to operate as smoothly as possible during or in the immediate wake of a disaster. Back up data offsite or in the cloud, verify that multiple employees know how to handle certain tasks and ensure you have backup options to contact employees if primary communication channels are interrupted.

For more information on hurricane preparation and natural disaster recovery, check out these other pieces from Risk Management:

Recovery in the Aftermath of a Hurricane

The 2022 hurricane season may be nearing its end, but it is clearly not over just yet. With Tropical Storm Nicole approaching landfall and expected to reach the U.S. as a Category 1 hurricane, Florida residents are once again in storm preparation mode and in the coming days, they will be dealing with the storm’s impact. The aftermath of a hurricane presents many risks—while the storm may be over, the danger is not. Any storm that damages power lines, gas lines or electrical systems, puts you and your business at risk due to fire, electrocution or explosion.

Proceed With Caution

Even once we enter the recovery phase, it is important to take precautions in flooded areas. Never drive across flowing water; a few inches of water may cause you to lose control of your vehicle and as little as a foot of flowing water will carry away a small car. Similarly, avoid wading in floodwaters. They may be contaminated by agricultural or industrial chemicals, or hazardous agents. Remember that standing water can be dangerous as it may be electrically charged from underground or downed power lines.

Before entering a building that has suffered wind or flood damage, conduct a preliminary inspection to make sure it is stable. If there is extensive damage, have a professional engineer or architect certify that it is safe. A professional should also check the gas, water and electrical lines and appliances for damage.

When using a generator for building system power, be sure that the main circuit breaker is off and locked out prior to starting the generator and that there is no exposed electrical wiring or equipment. This will prevent inadvertent energizing of power lines or uninsulated circuitry and help protect utility line workers and building occupants from possible electrocution.

Rebuilding and Restoring

Damage to your business can have a dramatic and far-reaching impact, so it is best to be prepared for the worst. It is natural to want to get back to a storm-hit property as soon as possible, but a little extra caution can go a long way in these circumstances.

Once the property is deemed safe by local officials, specially trained recovery teams in appropriate personal protective equipment can help assess the damage and work with management to implement an action plan to safely get your business back up and running. It is important to photograph and document all damage and notify your insurance agent as soon as possible. Then you can proceed to make temporary repairs to protect the building and its contents.

Preparing for the Future

An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, and three become major hurricanes. Recovery is never a one-and-done proposition—there will always be other hurricanes and hurricane seasons. Regardless of whether or not you experienced damage this year, if your business is in a hurricane prone area, or has the potential for a hurricane, you need to put your hurricane preparedness plan into action by building your hurricane kits, gathering needed supplies, and training your employees in pre- and post-hurricane activities. Do not wait for the next storm to form, as, it becomes increasingly more difficult to acquire the necessary equipment and supplies for your location once a warning has been issued and a storm looming in the not-too-far distance. 

NOAA’s main function is to monitor weather and distribute alerts and warnings. Since 2019, NOAA has been utilizing models that provide a more realistic expected arrival times for storms. Having the ability to better pinpoint a storm’s arrival enables businesses to better prepare their locations and their people for the impeding storm. This technology also helps to reduce loss-of-life and injury, in addition to the potential catastrophic financial impact a hurricane can have on a business.

The recovery period that storm-impacted Florida businesses are in following this year’s storms presents a great opportunity for learning. It is essential that organizations have a process in place to assess weaknesses and strengths in their hurricane readiness plan before the next event. What went well before, during and after the storm? What can be improved or implemented to address any unexpected challenges from this event?

If history has taught us anything, it is that a common thread across the responses to all natural disasters is a lack of awareness and preparation. As one of nature’s most destructive events, hurricanes are powerful and far-reaching, often causing dangerous storm surges that can be felt hundreds of miles inland. With potential maximum wind speeds of 200 mph and the ability to drop more than 2.4 trillion gallons of water in a single day, hurricanes are not to be taken lightly. By identifying areas of vulnerability and taking actions to prepare, businesses can potentially reduce the impacts of a catastrophic hurricane.

8 Steps to Create Strong Disaster Management Plans

A core responsibility of any risk professional is planning for any possible disasters your business might face. These could be man-made, such as a data breach or accidents involving machinery, or natural, like a tornado or flood.

Disasters and crises affect different organizations in different ways—one company might consider something a catastrophe, while another may not even notice a change in its workflow. It is important to look at your own business operations and evaluate what you would consider a crisis. Generally, business crises fall into one of three categories:

  1. A danger to the physical safety of employees or customers
  2. Loss of income or means of making income
  3. Events or people negatively affecting your business reputation

In many cases, the crisis may fall into more than one of these categories. An accident in the workplace that is hazardous to employees can impact the company’s income because the factory has to shut down. This can also negatively affect the company’s reputation if it turns out that the company did not provide a safe working environment.

With even the best risk management programs, no organization can avoid all disasters completely. Risk mitigation often comes down to crafting the best plans possible for the moment disaster inevitably strikes. These eight steps can help risk professionals develop strong crisis and disaster response plans:

1. Define The Types of Crises You Could Face: There is not a one-size-fits-all approach to a crisis management plan. Working out what is likely to affect your business specifically can relate to your geography—areas that get hit by severe storms or earthquakes must include those potential disasters, and what knock-on effects they may cause. For example, storms may cause flooding, loss of power, or blocked roads that make it difficult to reach your premises. The type of crisis can also be specific to your industry. Employees in a manufacturing facility are likely at greater risk in a physical disaster than those working in a tax consultancy, for example. Security should also be a consideration. Is your business likely to get robbed of cash or equipment? Do you have high-profile proprietary information that makes you more likely to be the victims of cybercrime?

2. Triggering the Plan: Including levels of urgency in your plan will help people responding to the crisis pinpoint how significant the event is, and how much of the plan must be put into action. A step-by-step approach for specific scenarios can be helpful and cover dealing with man-made and natural disasters in different ways. The risk for each will be unique to the situation and knowing when and how to trigger a response is key. The plan should include how and when to escalate the response should the crisis worsen, as well as how to identify when the crisis has passed. It can be helpful to use red, yellow and green system to indicate severity and urgency, and this classification approach is easy to adapt to any scenario.

3. The Base of Operations Location: Accidents or natural disasters may cause your usual place of business to close temporarily or permanently. In your plan, designate a backup command center in an alternate location for dealing with the crisis until you can get back to work. This location can be your company’s operations hub, a point for gathering after a crisis, or where you know your sensitive and important data backs up. If a natural disaster has made travel dangerous or roads impossible to navigate, you will also need a virtual base of operations—some possibilities include message boards, chat apps or email. With so many employees working remotely because of COVID-19, this may be easier to implement now.

4. The Chain of Command: Ensuring a clear chain of command so that there is no arguing or confusion when people and the business are at risk. Wherever possible, appoint a back-up for each person in charge so if someone cannot perform their duty, it falls to the next in line.

5. Internal and External Communication: When a crisis compromises an office or business, communication can become tricky. Have a clear set of rules for how you get information to and from your employees, what information you must and must not share with those outside of the company, and how to achieve that. This part of your crisis management plan can save lives and stop rumors from spreading.

6. Necessary Resources: Though this will depend on the nature of the business, consider first aid and safety equipment if you are likely to have injuries or get cut off because of poor weather. Also, think about alternate communication methods if mobile phone towers go down or the electricity gets cut, as well as access to your sensitive data, such as employee contracts and supplier agreements.Include all necessary resources you would need to operate and highlight any alternate replacements. For example, if a storm knocks out your power, you may have a generator.

7. Training: It is no good putting a crisis management plan together and not giving the relevant people the training they need to execute it. For example, the people you name as first aid providers or unit leaders need to know what is expected of them and undergo the necessary training. If you have safety equipment on your premises, like fire extinguishers or emergency release valves for machinery, you need to educate all stakeholders how these work.

8. Testing the Plan: Finally, test that your plan actually works. Review it with staff and conduct safety drills regularly—every two months at least. Look for any weak points or flaws in the plan before an actual crisis.While it may not be possible to anticipate everything a disaster brings, you can set up several response plans and test each one individually. These plans can tie in with your standard safety drills, or stand alone, depending on the nature of the event anticipated.

A crisis management plan is integral to every business, no matter its size, scope, or sector. By preparing for various potential disasters, you can take action when needed without putting your organization, employees, or yourself at unnecessary risk. 

Hurricane Laura Leaves Destruction—and Pandemic-Related Recovery Challenges

Hurricane Laura made landfall in the United States at 1 a.m. on Thursday, hitting Louisiana and Texas as a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour and what National Hurricane Center officials called “unsurvivable” storm surge. In such ferocious wind, thousands of homes and businesses were damaged or completely destroyed, hundreds of thousands were left without power and, as of Thursday evening, at least four people had been killed.

While forecasters initially expected the storm to lose intensity before reaching land, it rapidly intensified this week, becoming one of only 10 hurricanes to make landfall in the continental U.S. with winds over 150 mph since modern recordkeeping began in 1851. After windspeeds nearly doubled on Wednesday, officials in Texas and Louisiana ordered several hundred thousand people in the storm’s path to evacuate, but many were either unable to leave or chose not to. Increasingly severe storms in the area in recent years may have left some feeling prepared or resigned to ride out the storm.

Others faced difficulties related to the pandemic. As Risk Management recently reported, many experts have expressed concern that the COVID-19 pandemic could significantly complicate hurricane season this year, increasing the risk to individuals and businesses and making disaster recovery more difficult. Ahead of Laura, NPR reported that emergency shelters had a hard time safely accommodating evacuees without overcrowding and had to direct many to hotels. Pandemic-related job losses may have ruled that option out for some. Mayor Nic Hunter of Lake Charles, which was particularly devastated in the storm, told NPR that he “suspects the coronavirus pandemic and economic hardship are leading many people to take pause.” The outlet also reported that experts are concerned that mass evacuations from the hurricane could lead to new outbreaks in the region.

Now, the recovery process will undoubtedly be impacted by the pandemic as well.

“The global health crisis is going to have a major impact on recovery from any major storm, including Hurricane Laura—the stress of natural disaster becomes more intense when it unfolds against the backdrop of a highly contagious viral outbreak,” John Dickson, president and CEO of flood insurance provider Aon Edge, told Risk Management in the wake of the storm on Thursday.

For example, he said, “If you think back to hurricanes like Katrina (which hit about 15 years ago almost to date) and create a mental image, you see the community banding together to respond in close physical proximity. Similar images emerged from last year’s prolonged flooding along the Missouri River. In those and other events, assembly lines formed to fill and deploy sandbags—a task impossible to do six feet apart.”

Dickson noted that technology increasingly used by insurers (also known as risktech) would be more important than ever in responding to natural disasters this year as emergency response must be balanced with safe social distancing practices.

“Smart phones and basic technology can help homeowners achieve the recommended preparation steps and stay safe during a storm,” he advised. “For example, taking pictures and videos with date and time stamps could minimize the need for on-site inspections and physical proximity to claims adjusters.”

For insurance professionals, he noted, “The insurance industry is thinking through very tactical steps to ensure policies and procedures are in place to protect those who are on the frontlines when a hurricane hits. Drone technology offers the opportunity to take photos remotely, and computer models help better quantify risk and manage work forces.”

For more insight and actionable guidance on risk management for hurricanes and other natural catastrophes, including disaster preparedness, recovery and insurance, check out the following pieces from Risk Management:

Before Disaster Strikes: How to Prepare for Natural Catastrophes
How does an organization ensure it is prepared to minimize losses and recover quickly following a natural disaster? Long before a disaster strikes and property damage occurs, the best response plans begin with careful negotiation and placement of well-defined property coverage. Read more

Key Considerations for Disaster Planning
Meticulous disaster response planning has never been more critical. When developing a plan, it is important to involve key stakeholders and review every step that your business, your network and your vendors must take if a natural catastrophe impedes operations. A strong plan should address these key questions. Read more

Weathering Hurricane Season During the Pandemic
Pandemic-related social distancing guidelines and supply shortages could make it harder for business owners to protect their properties should a storm happen, making it even more important to have an action plan in place. These key considerations can help businesses owners mitigate potential storm risks amid COVID-19. Read more

Understanding Post-Storm Business Interruption Coverage
Whether in the impacted area or beyond, businesses suffering from supply chain disruptions after hurricanes and other storms should look to their property insurance policies for contingent business interruption coverage. Read more

Natural Disaster Planning During COVID-19
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, government authorities and disaster-response entities are over-extended and may not be able to provide assistance as readily this year. It is more important than ever that companies make backup plans and assess the potential impact of shortfalls in their disaster response protocols. Read more

The Human Element of Disaster Recovery
Crisis and disaster recovery plans offer a critical advantage when catastrophe strikes, helping mitigate the impact on facilities, information systems and equipment. Just as important, however, is considering how a disaster can affect the company’s workforce. Read more

Ensuring Insurance Recovery After a Hurricane Loss
These seven tips can help policyholders resolve disaster insurance claims in the wake of hurricanes and other natural catastrophes. Read more