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Q&A: Cape Town’s ‘Day Zero’

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On March 22, annual World Water Day will be especially relevant, as the United Nations and its co-sponsors hope to raise global awareness of water risks—particularly in Cape Town, South Africa. As we previously reported, a diminishing water supply is that city’s top priority, as it is counting down to a possible “Day Zero” (which had been set for July 9, but the City has stopped providing a date), when it could effectively become the first major city to run dry.

One of World Water Day’s partners is World Wide Fund For Nature South Africa (WWF-SA), an arm of what was formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund. Christine Colvin, senior manager of Freshwater for WWF-SA, recently discussed Cape Town’s struggles and how other major cities and businesses can learn from the preparedness plan and efforts to avoid a total drought.

Risk Management Monitor: Cape Town, which has 4 million residents, has a preparedness plan in effect that includes rationing among 200 water distribution points for 25 liters per person. Do you feel this plan is sustainable?

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Christine Colvin: At this stage, the general consensus is that Day Zero is not as imminent a threat as it was earlier in the year, and in all likelihood, there will be some rain and augmentation schemes will start to come online before dams drop to the critical 13.5% (which would activate the disaster plan).

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Consequently, the major

push is to encourage citizens to stay within their current daily limit of 50 liters of water per person, per day to see us through to the rainy season and beyond. If we are able to achieve this objective, the hope is that we should push out Day Zero as far as possible, thus buying the city time to bring on augmentation schemes.

RMM: How could Cape Town officials explore nature-based solutions (this year’s World Water Day campaign) to its water challenges?

Colvin: Ecological infrastructure is the foundation of water security and the first link in the water value chain. If our catchments are healthy and functional they deliver better quality, more reliable yields of water into our dams and aquifers. If they are invaded with alien vegetation or degraded by over-grazing or over-burning then they yield less water and more silt that will eventually destroy any downstream infrastructure we build to deliver water to our homes and farms. WWF-SA actively advocates the protection of water source areas through, among other things, water stewardship and catchment clearance of alien vegetation and has actively communicated this approach to the City of Cape Town during this drought period.

In our communications to the general public, we also encourage better stewardship of existing natural water sources such as groundwater and rivers, and promoting a water-wise culture. Our stewardship work in the Western Cape, the province in which Cape Town is located, focuses strongly on the agricultural sector which is a key industry for the region.

RMM: What steps can a major city take to prepare for a drought?

Colvin: Our Wednesday Water File on international case studies highlights many pertinent actions, perhaps best summarized in the Australian example:

  • Invest in fixing leaking infrastructure—one of the most cost-effective measures to improve water supplies
  • Introduce a demand management program which includes strict new legal requirements on business and domestic water use, coupled with a major education campaign
  • Diversify water supplies so if one source fails others can be drawn on, among them: dams, desalination, recycled water, rainwater tanks, groundwater, and storm water harvesting
  • Create a water grid which links major regional water supplies so water can be moved to where it is needed 

RMM: How is World Water Day raising awareness to the situation in Cape Town?

Colvin: While water is top of mind in Cape Town, the intention is to remind all South Africans that we live in a water-stressed country and the protection of strategic Water Source Areas and their natural capital is a national project. Water source areas are particularly important—making up 8% of South Africa’s land area but delivering 50% of our river flow to the rest of the country. Good management of these high rainfall mountainous headwater areas delivers a high return on investment downstream.

World Water Day is an important time to reflect on the relationship between water and nature.

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Many, but not all, residents of Cape Town are now aware of the “new normal” in which we are likely to experience much drier periods and have to conserve water but it remains vital to reinforce the message that water does not come from a tap—it comes from nature.

California’s New Localized Water Controls a Step Forward

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With higher levels of rain and snowfall over the winter, California’s water situation has eased in some areas, prompting the state to initiate new water conservation rules, adopted on May 18 and in effect June 1 through January 2017. The regulations give control over water usage to local communities, which means more restrictions in some areas than in others. In Northern California, winter precipitation has filled some reservoirs, while drought conditions persist in Southern California.

The previous rule—enacted in April 2015 by Gov. Jerry Brown, who issued an Executive Order mandating a 25% reduction of urban water usage from 2013 levels over a nine-month period—saw a savings of about 424 billion gallons. That followed a failed year-long effort to achieve a voluntary 20% reduction in water usage, with statewide conservation results averaging between just 7% and 12%.

The State Water Resources Control Board explained that the new approach replaces the percentage reduction-based water conservation standard with a localized approach. The emergency regulation requires that urban water suppliers ensure that at least a three year supply of water would be available to their customers in case of drought conditions. Suppliers that would face shortages under three additional dry years are now required to meet a conservation standard equal to the amount of a shortage. A water agency that projects it would have a 10% supply shortfall, for example, would have a mandatory conservation standard of 10%. The regulation also makes previously passed water-wasting rules permanent, including no hosing of sidewalks, washing cars without a hose nozzle, or watering lawns within 48 hours of measurable rainfall.

“El Nino didn’t save us, but this winter gave us some relief,” Water Board Chair Felicia Marcus said in a statement. “It’s a reprieve though, not a hall pass, for much if not all of California. We need to keep conserving, and work on more efficient practices, like keeping lawns on a water diet or transitioning away from them. We don’t want to cry wolf, but we can’t put our heads in the sand either.”

Will Sarni, director and practice leader of water strategy at Deloitte, agrees with the direction the state is taking on conservation.

While it may appear that restrictions are being eased, which could send the message that things are going back to business as usual, “It’s not business as usual, but local entities are being given more control,” Sarni said. “My view is that water is ultimately a local issue, so providing greater flexibility and decision-making at the local level that aligns with an overall strategy within the state, or nation, makes sense.”

The model of local management actions that roll up to a regional entity have successfully been adopted in other parts of the country, he said, explaining that states do work together. One example is the Delaware River Basin Commission, which is an entity that has a say in how water is managed in the Delaware River. Other examples include the Great Lakes Commission and the Colorado River Compact. “So cooperating on water is actually more common than not,” Sarni said.

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Massive Wildfires Ravage Alberta, Canada

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oil sands, Canada
Wildfires have shut down tar sand operations north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

Drought conditions in 2015 left Alberta, Canada, parched. Combined with recent winds and high temperatures, this has led to a massive, intense wildfire in the oil city of Fort McMurray, forcing evacuation of more than 80,000 people, and burning about 1,500 homes. Authorities said there have been no known casualties from the blaze, but that fatalities were reported in at least one vehicle crash along the evacuation route.

On Tuesday, the municipality of Wood Buffalo announced mandatory evacuations and closed all southbound routes. Residents fled to safer ground north of the of the area, where they spent Wednesday night in arenas, hockey rinks and oil work camps that often ran short of supplies, Reuters reports.

The fire is now five times its initial size and spreading south, taking it farther away from the massive tar sands area. Shell Nexen, Suncor and other oil sands operators have curtailed or shut down operations to protect pipelines and help evacuate employees and nearby residents, according to the Washington Post.

The wildfires in Canada illustrate a continuing trend of increasingly severe wildfires that in the United States caused a record 10.

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1 million acres to be burned in 2015, surpassing the previous high of 9.

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8 million acres in 2006, Mark Crawford reported in last month’s issue of Risk Management. It was the fourth year in the past decade in which more than nine million acres burned. According to the U.S. Forest Service, the 2015 wildfire season was the costliest on record, with more than billion spent fighting fires.

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Environmental scientists at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences said in 2013 that rising temperatures could lengthen wildfire seasons, increasing burn areas and smoke from fires.

Meanwhile, current weather reports for Alberta have raised hopes, as the forecast calls for cooler temperatures and possible rain.

Alberta hotspots

2015 Extreme Weather Events in Review

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From hurricanes to hail to droughts to tornadoes, 2015 was a busy year for extreme weather events.

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Drought in California continued to worsen, increasing the risk of wildfires.

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While record rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma alleviated drought, it caused severe flash flooding in Texas. There have been 25 Category 4-5 northern hemisphere tropical cyclones—the most on record to date, breaking the old record of 18 set in 1997 and 2004.

The Insurance Information Institute reported that insured losses from natural disasters in the United States in just the first half of 2015 totaled $12.6 billion—well above the $11.2 billion average in the first halves of 2000 to 2014.

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Interstate Restoration provides a look at 2015 weather events:

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