Despite extensive, persistent drought in the western United States, 2014 saw notably low numbers of wildfire incidents, both for total number of fires and acreage burned. According to CoreLogic, there were 63,345 wildfires in 2014, which ranks second only to 2013 as the lowest annual number of wildfires over the past 20 years. In comparison with 2013, which was the second lowest annual total acreage burned in the past 10 years, the 2014 season saw even lower numbers, with 3,587,561 acres burned by wildfires.
More intensive response to small fires and ignitions, increased overwinter snowpack and timely precipitation during wildfire season, and greater efforts to boost public awareness and homeowner mitigation efforts have all contributed to more effective control over wildfires, the company pointed out. But responding agencies, homeowners and insurers should not allow the decline to translate into a sense of security.
“Even though we haven’t seen the type of wildfire activity over the last few years that seemed to be thematic in the 2000s, there have been record setting wildfire events even during the recent periods of overall reduced wildfire numbers,” the report said.
“With continuing residential growth in the West, the opportunity for fires to find homes and businesses is going to increase as well. This is why it has never been more important to know where wildfire risk is located and understand the likelihood of it occurring.
Across the western states, the highest risk areas can be found:
Based on CoreLogic wildfire analysis, there are 897,102 residential properties in the region that are currently located in High or Very High wildfire-risk categories, with a reconstruction value of more than $237 billion. In the Very High risk category alone, there are just over 192,000 residences with a reconstruction value of more than $49 billion. “Taking into consideration the combination of risk factors both inside and outside the property boundary to assess numeric risk score, more than 1.
1 million homes in the U.S. with a total reconstruction value of more than $268 billion fall into the highest wildfire risk segment of 81-100. This total is more than five times the number of homes that fall under the Very High risk category,” CoreLogic reported.
The company also broke down the statewide totals for potential exposure to wildfire damage, in reconstruction value per risk category:
There is a 75% chance of an El Niño event in 2014, according to an early warning report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers used a new method that uses network analysis to predict weather systems up to a year ahead, instead of the usual six-month maximum of other approaches. The model successfully predicted the absence of El Niño in 2012 and 2013.
El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which results in a disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system. This can lead to warmer temperatures worldwide, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. and South America. If such an event occurred toward the end of 2014, the increased temperatures and drought conditions could persist through 2015.
The researchers suggested that their work might help farmers and government agencies by giving them more time to prepare and to consider investing in flood- or drought-resistant crops.
“Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde told Businessweek. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.”
The current highest record global temperatures date back to 1998, during the last strong El Niño. Given the continued increases in baseline temperature around the world, an El Niño event this year could lead to the record-breaking heat.
The summer of 2012 has been one a farmer would love to forget and one that weathermen never will. Daily temperature records were regularly shattered throughout the United States and historic drought conditions, which remain ongoing in many areas, caused crop yields to suffer. By July 19, after weeks of “unrelenting heat and a lack of rain continued the downward spiral of drought conditions,” according to National Climate Data Scientist Richard Heim, nearly 64% of the nation had officially entered drought, the highest percentage since 1950s.
Worst of all, some fear that this is less of an anomaly and more a sign of what’s to come in a warmer future. If that is the case, farmers, states and the nation at large will have to find new ways to ensure expected results can still be met. Regardless, the summer of 2012 will be notable, either for its harsh conditions or as the first in a line or extreme summers.
So here, we look back at a memorable season.
June 23
Wildfires burned in many areas of the western United States this summer, but a blaze in Colorado set historic state records. At least six were killed and some 600 homes were destroyed by a wildfire that devastated the Waldo section of Colorado Springs. The property damage has been estimated north of $500 million, some $350 million of which is insured, but the human toll looms even larger. A local resident, C.J. Moore told NPR that the fire was so hot her driveway exploded and, in the blaze, she lost much more than possessions. “One of the things I thought about the other day was the flag that was over my late husband’s casket,” Moore told NPR. “And I’m going, ‘I can’t replace that.’ I mean, yeah, I can get another flag, but it wouldn’t have served the same purpose. And you [think about it], and then tears well up.”
June 28
As a relentless heat wave blankets much of the country, and cities throughout the United States set temperature records, the nation’s capital sets a historic mark. June 28 to July 8 marks an 11-day stretch of 95-degree-or-hotter days in Washington, D.C., breaking the previous record set in 1930. The 105 Fahrenheit reached on July 7th becomes the second-hottest day in the city’s history. (Chart above, and data, via the Washington Post.)
July 17
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 38% of the U.S. corn crop is rated as poor to very poor. “That 38% represents the highest amount of U.S. corn rated poor to very poor since the end of the 1988 growing season,” said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We now see in 13 of the 18 major production states in the U.S., at least one quarter of the corn crop rated poor to very poor.” In Kentucky, Missouri and Indiana, more than 70% of the corn crop is rated as poor.
July 18
A Milliman report estimates that a dozen major corn and soybean-producing states could tally underwriting losses of $2.8 billion. The 12 states included were Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin, and Milliman notes that “other states, including Arkansas and many western states, are also experiencing an intense drought and could see high crop insurance indemnities as well.”
July 20
The U.S. drought monitor releases shocking findings: due to “unrelenting heat and lack of rain,” 63.5% of the United States is now officially suffering from drought. Mark Svoboda, climatologist for the U.S. drought monitor notes that the summer heat, on top of a dry winter and a warm spring, “Our soil moistures are depleted.”
July 25
In a summer full of them, the USDA extended yet another series of disaster proclamations for counties in several states, raising the number of counties where farmers were eligible for drought-related disaster assistance to 1,369. The department noted that this highlighted the need for Congressional action. “The urgency for Congress to pass a food, farm and jobs bill is greater than ever,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “The hard-working Americans who produce our food and fiber, feed for livestock, and contribute to a home-grown energy policy—they need action now.” One week later, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack would report that more than 50% of the nation’s counties were officially designated disaster zones, including more than three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage. “It’s the most severe and expensive drought in 25 years,” said USDA economist Timothy Park.
August 2
The House of Representatives passes a $383 million drought-assistance package for farmers and livestock producers. The short-term care package is generally seen as a reasonable relief effort but also highlights Congress’s failure to pass a long-term farm bill. “My priority remains to get a five-year farm bill on the books and put those policies in place,” said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) in a statement, “but the most pressing business before us is to provide disaster assistance to those producers impacted by the drought conditions who are currently exposed.”
August 5
Outspoken NASA climate scientist James Hansen writes a Washington Post op-ed proclaiming that extreme weather such as the ongoing drought and recurring heat waves this summer are the direct result of man-made climate change. “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change,” wrote Hansen. “To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”
The USDA updates its corn outlook to show that 51% of the corn in the 18 states that yield upwards of 90% of the U.S. crop yield are rated poor. 26% of that total is considered very poor. “This again shows that rains this week were too little, too late to stabilize the corn crop,” said DTN Analyst John Sanow.
