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The Greatest Risks of the Greek Debt Crisis

The ongoing debt crisis in Greece continues to spur unrest, move markets and threaten the very fabric that connects the eurozone. Exactly how much effect a Greek default — and the domino effect in lending costs it would have throughout Europe — would have on the U.S. business world remains unclear.

But a good rundown from CNN Money offers a list of the three biggest risks Greek default presents for the United States: (1) U.S. bank exposure to sovereign debt, (2) a pullback in U.S. exports, and (3) U.S. business slow down.

To me, the last one seems the most threatening. Only now is the U.S. economy beginning to make any headway on replacing the jobs lost after the 2008 meltdown — and even this “recovery” remains mild, at best.

Here is how CNN breaks down that risk.

Many products sold by U.S. companies in Europe are made in Europe.

And losses there are already taking a bite out of U.S. multinational firms, from automakers General Motors and Ford Motor, to cereal maker Kellogg and smaller niche companies like watch and accessories maker Fossil, whose stock tumbled 40% in a single day after reporting weak European sales earlier this month.

If the value of the euro versus the dollar continues to drop, U.S. goods are going to become more expensive by comparison to those made by European rivals. And that could cut into U.S. business sales and exports around the globe if countries can get cheaper imports from Europe.

Furthermore, if export-driven economies like China see demand from Europe slow, it increases a risk of a so-called “hard landing” for the Chinese economy.

Given the importance of emerging market growth worldwide, a hard landing in China and other export markets poses a significant threat of creating a global recession, according to a report earlier this year from the World Bank.

And the with U.S. GDP of 2.2% in the most recent quarter, it is doubtful the United States can avoid a recession of its own if there is a true global slowdown.

There’s the “R” word resurfacing. For the United States—not just economies across the pond. In 2012, there is no greater risk facing American companies.

The Biggest Geopolitical Risks of 2012

The Eurasia Group has unveiled its Top Risks of 2012 list of greatest geopolitical threats the world will face in the next 12 months. Each year, this is an indispensable resource for anyone tasked with managing risk or just interested in global affairs.

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Once again this year, their top ten list is a must read, but I personally find their “red herrings” list to be even more fascinating — and unexpectedly entertaining.

In addition to Top Risks, Bremmer and Gordon identify four Red Herrings, issues that despite the headlines, Eurasia Group believes will not be sources of geopolitical instability in 2012.

2012 political transitions — In addition to elections this year in Mexico, Venezuela, Kenya, Taiwan and (maybe) Egypt, 2012 will see political transitions in the US, China, Russia, and France, countries that together represent about nearly half of global GDP and four-fifths of the UN security council. Yet there is surprising little at stake here for geopolitics and the global economy. Whatever risks come with these outcomes will arrive in 2013 or beyond.

Eurozone breakup — probably the single most overrated risk of 2012, the political will to maintain the eurozone remains strong among all the major political parties in the core eurozone states, almost across the board in the European periphery, and among eurocrats in the ever-growing European bureaucracy. Further, there is no effective political mechanism for a eurozone breakup.

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China’s hard landing — There are signs of overheated growth in China, but there’s no chance that the government will fail to pull out every stop to prevent a meltdown—or even a serious bump—especially in the middle of a major political transition.

Mayan apocalypse — Just isn’t happening. And if it does, well, sorry.

You heard it here first: the world will not end in 2012.

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