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The 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

Atlantic hurricane season officially began recently, kicking off a disaster season that will run from June 1 through November 30. According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season will consist of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. This falls into a fairly average range, but “average” is a bit unusual under the conditions currently emerging around the season.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University notably marked the opening of the season with a revised forecast. After initially predicting slightly below-average hurricane activity in 2023, the researchers increased their estimates. Now, CSU is essentially predicting an average hurricane season, but one that is above-average for what is expected to be an El Niño year.

The last three hurricane seasons have been controlled by La Niña, which typically leads to more hurricane activity. While El Niño would typically help reduce such activity, current warmer water temperatures could ultimately cancel out most of that effect.

“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” CSU researchers explained. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”

CSU anticipates 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is right in line with the NOAA forecasts. However, CSU forecasters noted that this year’s outlook includes particular uncertainty due to these conflicting factors.

As the hurricane season gets underway, the following tips can help businesses update and strengthen natural disaster recovery plans:

Review your business interruption insurance. Business interruption insurance coverage plays a critical role in helping ensure complete recovery from a storm. BI coverage relies on accurately reported business values, however, and recent changes in property values, replacement and repair costs, and inflation all impact those current values. To avoid the risk of being severely underinsured, make sure your coverage has up-to-date valuations so that claims payouts will be robust enough to rebuild your business. Check out the May/June issue of Risk Management for more information about the importance of accurate business interruption values and best practices for preparing a business interruption claim

Update your current disaster recovery plan. It is crucial to keep your natural disaster recovery plan updated. Organizations have gone through massive change over the past few years, including different work locations due to hybrid or remote work, staffing changes, and new technology that may aid in emergency response. Ensure your organization’s disaster recovery plan reflects your current personnel, equipment, insurance policies and contacts, and make sure to distribute it among all current members of any emergency response teams or other key stakeholders.

Do a dry run. The only real way to know if your disaster recovery plan works is to put it to use, and you do not want to wait until a natural disaster is at hand to find out if it works. Practice various scenarios and have key players act out their roles to gauge the effectiveness of the plan and make changes accordingly.

Take preventative measures. To weather disaster response well, disaster preparation is essential. Take steps now to ensure the organization will be able to operate as smoothly as possible during or in the immediate wake of a disaster. Back up data offsite or in the cloud, verify that multiple employees know how to handle certain tasks and ensure you have backup options to contact employees if primary communication channels are interrupted.

For more information on hurricane preparation and natural disaster recovery, check out these other pieces from Risk Management:

Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Tips for Businesses

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The first Atlantic hurricane of the season is rapidly approaching the mainland United States, with experts currently expecting Hurricane Dorian to make landfall in Florida on Sunday. For businesses both in the storm’s path and beyond, it is important to take the opportunity to consider how to protect property from hurricane damage before and after storms. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, on average, hurricane damage costs $54 billion annually, and even at this late date, there is always more businesses can do to try to mitigate such losses and damage to their property and operations.

One of the simplest steps is having an accurate replacement cost and business income valuation. If valuations were conducted previously, consider how long it has been and any significant changes, such as assets or location. It is also important to document the property before a storm arrives, including taking photos and videos, or even using 3D-mapping technology to record a detailed account of an entire space, building or structure. Most importantly, confirm with the insurer that the policy is current and that the terms, conditions, and limits are all well understood.

Creating and practicing a detailed disaster plan is another important step. Business owners can use risk modeling programs, which run a range of potential scenarios digitally to flag issues and create a more holistic plan. If digital modeling is unavailable, walking through or rehearsing plans can help identify potential issues. For example, built-in hurricane shutters are great, but if they are not tested ahead of time and then malfunction in the hours before a storm, it may be too late to find an adequate solution. When tailoring the disaster response plan, also consider the available coverage to limit out-of-pocket expenses after a storm. Coordinating with your insurance professional is the best way to minimize uninsured expenses.

One critical factor for any business disaster plan is how to protect data, including business data as well as plans and building layouts. House these valuable documents in a secure location in case of physical damage to the main data storage unit or computer drives. Insurance companies will likely request very specific information to process any claim, so speak with an insurance company adjuster in advance to determine what types of documents they need for filing a claim, then store those in an easily accessible online portal.

Create a business continuity plan that addresses how to expedite recovery or avoid interruption, potentially including employing an off-site workforce, creating an alternative workspace, and locating backup suppliers.

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It should also always include a communication plan so that key players remain connected.
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Business owners should engage with critical vendors and emergency responders in advance to assist with loss mitigation, temporary repairs, and restoration. Following a wide-spread catastrophe, these vendors are in high demand and having a preexisting relationship will help.

Once the storm passes, the first step must be communication: contact everyone to address safety concerns and identify their needs. Phone lines and internet service are often unreliable following a storm, and business owners should be prepared to use multiple forms of communication, from texts to emails and applications that use Wi-Fi.

After reestablishing contact, quickly document the damage (ideally in both photos and videos) since demonstrating the extent and cause of loss becomes increasingly difficult over time. Policyholders should notify their broker and insurance company of the loss immediately, and once damage is documented, policyholders must reasonably and with due diligence preserve and protect property and commence restoration while mitigating future risk. For example, if a structure suffers roof damage, but no action is taken to “reasonably and quickly” provide temporary cover, rain damage following the storm may not be covered as part of the storm’s damage.

Finally, it is critical to log all logistical and monetary details.

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After a hurricane, there may be challenges accessing damaged areas, so retain all notices, civil orders or police mandates concerning any access limitations to later provide the insurance company. An insurance company cannot expect a policyholder to put a tarp on a roof if access was prohibited. Likewise, policyholders should track all expenditures. After a disaster, the price of restoration services can increase dramatically, so acquire and keep multiple estimates of any cleanup, construction, or emergency service needed. Having these estimates will allow policyholders to assert the cost was both reasonable and necessary and receive reimbursement.

Hurricane season is already here but it is not too late to take preparative steps to help protect your business from the often unpredictable effects of storms. The only things business owners can control are the steps to help prevent and recover from damages.

62% of Impacted Companies Lacked Hurricane Prep in 2017

A majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admit to being unprepared for last year’s hurricanes that devastated their communities, according to a survey by FM Global. While 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not fully prepared.

“These candid admissions drive home a fundamental truth about catastrophe,” Louis Gritzo, vice president and manager of research at FM Global said in a statement.

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“People routinely fail to understand or acknowledge the magnitude of risk until they’ve experienced a fateful event.”

One reason for a lack of natural-hazard preparation is imprecise terminology, he said. Being located in a “100-year flood” zone, for example, “does not mean you have 99 years to plan—but that there is a 1% chance of such a flood every year.” Another reason for insufficient preparation is over-reliance on insurance, which cannot restore the market share, brand equity and shareholder value lost to competitors.

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The study found that as a result of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria:

  • 57% of all respondents said they will put in place or enhance their business continuity or disaster recovery plans.
  • 40% plan to invest more in risk management, property loss prevention, and/or reassess their supply chain risk management strategy.
  • 25% will reassess their insurance coverages or their insurers.

FM Global commissioned market research firm ORC International to survey 101 senior financial executives at Fortune 1000-size organizations by phone in October through November 2017.

Building a Better Continuity Plan for Hurricane Season

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, 40% of businesses do not reopen after a disaster and another 25% fail within one year. As September is not only the beginning of hurricane season, but also National Preparedness Month, the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety have released a new infographic highlighting some of the crucial steps businesses should be taking to fortify against natural disasters.

“Businesses that plan for a disaster have the best chance of surviving, and that starts with identifying the potential risks,” said Loretta Worters, a vice president with the I.I.I. “Large businesses have risk managers, but small business owners have to be their own risk managers and, working with their insurance professional, determine the right type and amount of insurance to be able to recover from a disaster.”

“It is also critical for small business owners to create and/or update their business continuity plan and work with employees so they are prepared for the potential effects of a disaster,” said Gail Moraton, business resiliency manager at IBHS. “Taking time to do this now will save money and time later.”

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