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Terrorist Attacks: The Countries Most at Risk

terrorism

When we think of countries most at risk of terrorist attacks, we usually think of Iraq, Pakistan or Afghanistan. But according to a report from Maplecroft, Somalia is now more at risk than any other country in the world. The firm’s global ranking assessed the frequency and intensity of terrorist incidents in 196 countries and found the following countries qualify as “extreme risk” territories:

  1. Somalia
  2. Pakistan
  3. Iraq
  4. Afghanistan
  5. Palestinian Occupied Territory
  6. Columbia
  7. Thailand
  8. Philippines
  9. Yemen
  10. Russia

The report found that between June 2009 and June 2010, Somalia experienced 556 terrorist attacks, killing a total of 1,437 people and wounding 3,408.

The principal threat in Somalia comes from the Islamist al Shabaab, which has claimed responsibility for several deadly suicide bombings, including one in February 2009, which killed eleven Burundian soldiers on an AU peacekeeping mission.

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In a recent and worrying change of tactics, the group carried out its first major international attack in July 2010, when it bombed the Ugandan capital, Kampala, killing at least 74 people.

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Yemen makes its first appearance in the “extreme risk” category, with 109 attacks in the one-year period ending June 2010. The country’s primary source of terrorism is al-Qaeda, “which is causing growing alarm among Western intelligence services as the group plots more attacks abroad.

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Greece overtook Spain to become the European country most at risk from terrorist attacks. Though most Greek attacks tend to be non-fatal, they are highly disruptive, as we saw in the November 2010 letter bombs that targeted embassies in Athens and foreign leaders both in Greece and abroad.

Greece

The Risks of Oil-Producing Countries

Understanding the unique risks of oil-producing countries is not easy.

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From political to economic to security risks, there are many and they are far-reaching.

I was lucky enough to participate in a webinar yesterday on this very topic. Leading the presentation was Fareed Mohamedi, partner and head of markets and country strategies for PFC Energy and Raad Alkadiri, partner and head of PFC Energy.

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The webinar was thought-provoking and insightful, offering a glimpse into the oil production of such countries as Iraq, Iran, Russia and Brazil.

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Picture 21

Iraq, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, holds more than 112 billion barrels of oil — the world’s second largest proven reserve — and also contains 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and is a focal point for regional and international security issues. Mohamedi and Alkidiri see this oil-rich country as a ongoing risk.

Picture 22

The presenters also focused on OPEC constraints on oil production and the eventual quota applied to Iraq, stating that “OPEC may be able to live with maximum Iraqi production of 6 mmb/d by 2017 assuming relatively benign supply/demand fundamentals, but the risks are all on the downside.”

But let’s not leave out Iraq’s neighbor and fellow oil-rich country, Iran. According to PFC Energy, the country’s oil production forecast looks something like this:

Picture 23

But this excessive production doesn’t come without some consequences. Iran faces severe natural decline rates from its reservoirs, forcing Iran to rely heavily on proven undeveloped reserves (PUDs). However, the country’s unstable investment climate is a downside risk for PUD development. And as the webinar stated, “Iran’s production struggles will continue, or even worsen in the future due to geological constraints, lack of domestic technical capacity and the impact of sanctions on investment.”

U.S. dependency on foreign oil may decrease as the Obama administration opens up even more water for exploratory drilling. But, as we have seen recently with the Deepwater Horizon, that too comes with extreme risks.

To view an archived version of the webinar click the following link:
http://www.talkpoint.com/viewer/starthere.asp?Pres=130886
Password: pfcglobalrisk