Monthly Archives: June 2009

People Power

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At the moment, a substantial amount of public outcry, including riots and mass demonstrations, are being reported throughout Iran as supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi have taken to the streets, protesting the outcome of that country’s recent presidential election. The official announcement from the Iranian government that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the election in a landslide immediately threw up a number of red flags indicating possible voter fraud.

From a distance, the situation looks pretty unsavory, with riot police beating down protesters, foreign journalists getting hassled by interior security agents, and even reports that the BBC Persia satellite link is being jammed from somewhere within Iran itself. All of this points to a regime that clearly has a stake in keeping a lid on things, which one must assume could include a questionable electoral outcome. Why else employ such heavy security?

While the Western world in particular raises questions over this situation, the business implications of the election pose a less headline-worthy but potentially more serious impact. Iran is currently OPEC’s second-largest petroleum producer and, as such, remains heavily dependent on world oil prices.

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Fluctuation in price per barrel has taken a heavy toll on Iran, which supports its internal economy through heavy public spending.

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According to the Coface Handbook of Country Risk 2009, Iran experiences inflation in excess of 25%, thanks in part to poor governance and the long-term impact of international sanctions against the country. It is that very inflation, among other things, that has driven so much discontent within the country. And it seems likely that if the current election results stand as is, or if Iran’s recently announced probe into them proves to be nothing more than a charade, additional sanctions could follow.

What will happen when one of the world’s leading oil producers is put under even greater international economic pressure? What will happen when its own economy worsens? What will happen when an entire generation of citizens no longer fear the state’s ability to keep the peace? It all adds up to a most unusual display of instability in a country that holds the keys to a great deal of economic power. As we saw during the last two years of oil fluctuation, weird things can happen when the price of oil goes off the rails.

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And what’s happening in Iran is looking more and more like a train wreck.

Feeling Sick

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Well, it’s finally happened.

Last week, the A(H1N1) virus (which is still being referred to as “swine flu” by a number of media outlets, including the BBC) became a formal pandemic.

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The World Health Organization made the announcement in an emergency meeting after cases of A(H1N1) rose sharply in Australia last week.

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At present, A(H1N1) is present in 74 countries, and there are nearly 28,000 confirmed cases of infection. The overall impact of the disease, however, has been fairly manageable, causing mild to moderate illness in the vast majority of cases. Concerns over the disease have caused school shutdowns in many countries, including the United States, and it all but put Mexico City under total lockdown back in April when the disease first gained global media coverage.

As this article by the BBC suggests, there has been some dissonance between the general public concern over a possible A(H1N1) pandemic and the effects the pandemic has actually delivered.

Long story short: the pandemic warning system was really meant to alert the public to a genuinely dangerous outbreak along the lines of avian flu, that could cause widespread death and hospitalization. Thankfully, A(H1N1) has not done that, but as this blog reported earlier, it has caused a fair bit if collateral damage among the pork industry because of its unfortunate (and inaccurate) “swine flu” moniker.

Ultimately, the true weight of the pandemic should be kept in perspective.

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Though the disease has killed and spread globally, its effects still pale in comparison to any number of more serious disease outbreaks throughout the world, such as cholera in Zimbabwe (the result of that country’s government utter failure to manage anything), dengue fever in Argentina (which is taking its toll politically on President Cirstina Kirchner) and the ever-present risk of malaria, which in 2006 alone sickened nearly 250 million people and killed some 881,000.

After A(H1N1) runs its course, the media (and this blog as well) will undoubtedly get rapped on the knuckles for overblown coverage of a modest disease. “Pandemic” is a measure of a disease’s breadth of exposure, not its severity of illness. And while the A(H1N1) story has proven to be not nearly as serious as early reports warned, better that we go on alert wrongly than pretend a risk does not exist.

The Pirate Party

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Yes, that’s right — Sweden’s “Pirate Party” has won entry to the European Parliament. In a sign of the technological times, the party gained 7% of the Swedish votes and secured at least one of the 18 seats that Sweden holds in the parliament. The Pirate Party describes itself here.

The Pirate Party wants to fundamentally reform copyright law, get rid of the patent system, and ensure that citizens’ rights to privacy are respected. With this agenda, and only this, we are making a bid for representation in the European and Swedish parliaments.

Not only do we think these are worthwhile goals. We also believe they are realistically achievable on a European basis. The sentiments that led to the formation of the Pirate Party in Sweden are present throughout Europe. There are already similar political initiatives under way in several other member states. Together, we will be able to set a new course for a Europe that is currently heading in a very dangerous direction.

The Pirate Party only has three issues on its agenda.

The three stated goals on this agenda are : “To fundamentally reform copyright law,” “To get rid of the patent system” and  “To ensure that citizens’ rights to privacy are respected.”

Ironically, the popularity of the Pirate Party rose after the conviction of the leaders of Pirate Bay, a Swedish file sharing site who had for years brazenly flaunted its dismissal of IP laws and the authorities’ ability to do anything to stop them from providing users with a network to pirate everything from music and movies to software and video games. Before the Pirate Bay ballyhoo, the Pirate Party, which was founded in 2006, continuously received less than 1% of the vote.

Christian Engstrom, the party’s top candidate, believes that Sweden’s youth were the ones who swung the ballot.

Mr. Engstrom thanks younger voters for the election success, saying, “We are very strong among those under 30. They are the ones who understand the new world the best. And they have now signaled they don’t like how the big parties deal with these issues. We will use all of our strength to defend personal integrity and our civil rights.”

Where else can one vote for a “Pirate Party” besides Sweden? If you guessed the United States, you’re right. The Pirate Party of the United States, which was also formed in 2006 and modeled after Sweden’s likeminded party, appears here to stay — ready to fight for your right to government access, protests, free press and assembly.

Would you vote for the Pirate Party?

Facebook Needs a Risk Manager

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The world’s largest social networking site needs help — in the form of a risk manager.

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 Facebook has recently listed a job opening on its own site and throughout other job search sites searching for a risk manager to work in the company’s Palo Alto, Calif. headquarters.

The job requirements include:

  • BA/BS degree from a leading academic institution
  • Avid Facebook user
  • Five years of investigations experience in finance, fraud, technical or credit domains
  • Management, training and recruiting experience in building and running teams
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Knowledge of internet technologies such as IPs and cookies
  • Experience with billing, payments or chargebacks
  • Experience in a fast-paced startup environment a plus

For those that do make the cut, they are bound to find life at Facebook headquarters anything but uptight and stressful. The company offers many desirable perks along with a relaxed work environment.

The site proclaims:

We pair innovation and passion with cutting loose and having fun: racing around on RipStiks; playing Bughouse chess, a hand of poker, or a game of Risk; rocking out in our music room; and embarking on all-night coding binges for new features and ideas. Our language team rewrites the site in Pirate English, just for kicks.

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(Why upload photos when you can “hoist a portrait”?

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) There’s also an Ultimate Frisbee team, Nacho Thursday, and all kinds of new fun being invented every week.

With this kind of work environment and, needless to say, great pay, Facebook will undboubtedly be innundated with thousands of resumes. And one lucky winner will become the leading risk manager for this era’s hottest social site.