Immediate Vault

Japan, Indian Ocean Hit By Strong Earthquakes

Asia is, yet again, the victim of a natural catastrophe — this time in the form of two earthquakes.

A magnitude 7.6 earthquake hit the Indian Ocean in the early morning hours, prompting a tsunami watch that has now been lifted. Then, at 5:07 a.m. a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck about 90 miles southwest of Tokyo, killing at least one and injuring close to 100. 

This comes on the heels of Typhoon Morakot, which produced deadly mudslides in China and Taiwan that have left hundreds of residents unaccounted for.

In Pengxi, a mountain-ringed town in coastal China about 270 miles southwest of Shanghai, a landslide buried six four-story apartment buildings as residents slept at 10:30 p.m. Monday, local time. Rescuers pulled four survivors and two bodies from the debris, but were unable to say how many others were missing.

As if that wasn’t enough for Asia, Japan is still reeling from the effects of Typhoon Etau, which struck the country’s west coast on Monday, killing 13 and leaving 10 others missing.

Asia is no stranger to natural catastrophes. The Insurance Information Institute lists the ten deadliest world catastrophes in 2008, with a concentration of them in Asia.

  1. May 2 Myanmar (Burma), Bay of Bengal Cyclone Nargis devastates Irrawaddy and Yangon Divisions; floods (deaths: 138,373)
  2. May 12 China Sichuan Earthquake (magnitude 7.9), aftershocks (deaths: 87,449)
  3. Jun. 19 Philippines, China, South China Sea Typhoon Fengshen/No. 6, winds up to 140 km/h, heavy rain (deaths: 1,413)
  4. Jan. 5 Afghanistan Heavy snowfall (deaths: 1,300)
  5. Jun. 10 India Floods caused by monsoon rain (deaths: 950)
  6. Sep. 1 Haiti, Turks and Caicos Island et al. Hurricane Hanna, winds up to 130 km/h, floods (deaths: 500)
  7. Nov. 28 Nigeria Clashes over disputed election results (deaths: 300)
  8. Oct. 29 Pakistan Earthquake (magnitude 6.4), aftershock (magnitude 6.2) (deaths: 300)
  9. Dec. 18 Bay of Bengal, Myanmar (Burma) Boats carrying illegal immigrants disappear (deaths: 275)
  10. Sep. 8 China Mudslide causes dam to burst at Tashan ore mine (deaths: 271)

As a 2009 SwissRe report states:

Many governments in Asia face significant financial risks when  catastrophes occur. Given the rapid development of income and wealth in Asia, the financial exposures will swiftly rise. This is likely to increase the focus on prevention and ex-post disaster management. It will also give rise to the development of insurance as a tool to cope with the financial consequences of catastrophes. It is expected therefore, that in Asia, insurance will play a more important role in the future  than it does today.

It is evident that Asia’s need for comprehensive natural catastrophe insurance is only increasing, as the continent’s population and level of wealth show no signs of slowing down.

Thoughts on CEI’s Stance on Catastrophe Funding

In the most recent issue of Business Insurance, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Eli Lehrer offers his thoughts on why exactly a federal natural catastrophe backstop would be a very, very bad idea. The CEI has been carpet bombing trade and mainstream media outlets in a nonstop campaign to tell anybody who will listen that the only thing worse than a hurricane wiping out coastal property is for the federal government to pick up the tab for it.

While Lehrer’s BI interview is well-reasoned and even worded, not all of the CEI’s efforts in the arena have been. Earlier this year, the CEI launched NoBeachHouseBailouts.org, which appears to promote itself on the specious notion that a national catastrophe defense fund, such as the one outlined in the Homeowner’s Defense Act of 2008, would primarily benefit the likes of super-rich celebrities seeking government bailout funds for their beach-front mansions. It’s the kind of cynical sloganeering we’d expect in a nasty political campaign (Lehrer himself was a speechwriter for Bill Frist, R-TN), especially since it goes for a gut reaction instead of considering the facts.

When we study poverty rates along all coastal counties subject to Atlantic hurricanes (figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Data Service, 2007) we find that 10 of the 19 states with coastal risk exposures to Atlantic hurricanes have higher poverty rates on the coast than the statewide average. And across all coastal states subject to hurricanes, the average county poverty rate in 2007 is 12.4%, only 0.6% below the national rate.

More to the point, if we look at regional data, an even more interesting picture emerges. Coastal poverty rates are lower than the national average almost across the board in states from Virginia through Maine — those northeastern states that have a much milder hurricane history than their more southern counterparts.

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Coastal poverty rates from North Carolina through Texas — the states where hurricanes make landfall most frequently — were almost entirely above state averages. And this, in states where the statewide averages themselves were universally several points higher than the national poverty average.

Bottom line: a national catastrophe defense fund is meant to provide for those who cannot afford to rebound from a hurricane strike with the means to do so.

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The states that would benefit from this the most are poorer southern states that already have higher-than-average rates of poverty compared to the rest of the nation, and whose coasts are even more poverty-stricken. To suggest that a national catastrophe defense fund would primarily bailout celebrities such as Donald Trump, Tiger Woods and John Travolta, as the CEI does, displays a certain ignorance of the wider economic reality of coastal risk.

It is tempting indeed to suggest that if people do not wish to deal with coastal risk, they should simply move away from the coast. However, such wishful thinking flies in the face of global human behavior, which is showing more movement toward coastal areas than at any other time in the history of our species.

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Coastal risk cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nor is it primarily borne by those with more than enough personal resources to cope with the risks.

If the CEI is so bothered by the thought of millionaires benefiting from a catastrophe defense fund, then a more reasoned approach would be to lobby for a condition exempting homeowners with single property values over a certain amount, on the basis that such property owners already have enough to afford proper levels of insurance, or can finance their risk independently, rather than argue to deny our nation’s coastal poor the benefit of government relief when the next major hurricane strikes them.

Storm Summary 3

Welcome to the third “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season. Each Friday from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present storms, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Ana TD 28-May Mid Atlantic None
Blanca TS 7/6 to 7/8 East Pacific None
Carlos Cat. 2 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Dolores TS 7/15 to 7/17 East Pacific None
Enrique TS 8/4 to present East Pacific None
Felicia Cat.  4 8/3 to present East Pacific None

Hurricane Felicia (now a category 3) and the recently downgraded tropical depression Enrique are dangerously close together in the Eastern Pacific waters, not far from Hawaii. Meteorologists fear Felicia may overtake Enrique, adding even more strength to the already massive storm. Island residents are preparing for the worst.

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What seems like constant storm activity in the Pacific is due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing.

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The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better.

As the Pacific hurricane season rages on, the Atlantic has remained relatively calm.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our fourth “Storm Summary” installment.

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Modern Plague Hits China

China is moving swiftly to quarantine an area that has seen three men die of pneumonic plague, the bacteria of which, Yersinia pestis, is the same bacteria that caused the bubonic plague.

Chinese officials have quarantined the town of Ziketan, home to 10,000 people in the northwest province of Qinghai. Police have also set up checkpoints around the area in question while medics work to disinfect the entire town.

About 10 other people inside the town have so far contracted the disease, according to state media. No-one is being allowed leave the area, and the authorities are trying to track down people who had contact with the men who died.

Health officials say there’s no need for letting fear rule in this case since modern medicine is well equipped to handle the breakout — mostly due to the fact that health officials have a lot more knowledge handling this type of infectious disease as they do other, newly-formed ones, such as H1N1 or Avian Flu.

Will will follow this breaking news story closely — be sure to check back for updates.