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Risk Management Links of the Day: 12.16.09

janet napolitano DHS

  • Department of Homeland Security Fail: “Tahaya Buchanan, an American fugitive who’d been on the run for more than two years, dodging a national arrest warrant for insurance fraud, has spent her years underground gainfully employed by the Department of Homeland Security.
  • Our homeland security watchdog is doing something right, however, as DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano yesterday announced a “first of its kind federal-state cybersecurity partnership” between the department and the state of Michigan. As someone who reads dozens of horrible press releases every day, I can assure you that this is one of the least informative press releases ever written (and, not for nothing, DHS could probably use some proofreaders), but the gist of this thing seems to center around some sort of collaborative IT system to uncover malware and cyberattacks — or something.
  • With the financial collapse bankrupting Iceland and putting once-low-risk economies like those of Greece and Latvia on the ropes, Ellen Brown looks at how even the developed world nations of the EU are now bucking IMF debt-repayment protocols. And as former fat cats like Dubai have shown, today’s global climate means that even formerly nonvolatile nations need to be given more scrutiny when it comes to credit risks. “Dozens of countries have defaulted on their debts in recent decades, the most recent being Dubai, which declared a debt moratorium on November 26, 2009. If the once lavishly-rich Arab emirate can default, more desperate countries can; and when the alternative is to destroy the local economy, it is hard to argue that they shouldn’t.”
  • The video streaming site Justin.tv is under scrutiny for its inability to prevent its users from illegally uploading copyrighted content. Ultimately, this is the same fight that has been going on regarding digital intellectual property since Napster and, later, Kazaa gave rise to widespread music piracy across college campuses in the late 90s. YouTube faced similar scrutiny and many lawsuits and, like Napster, has used the “we’re not doing anything wrong — it’s our users” defense. But where Napster (and other, more brazen sharing sites like The Pirate Bay) failed, sites like YouTube have (thus far) been able to sidestep major legal recourse by having procedures (which, if we’re being honest, are only minimally effective) that ensure the removal of content if it is reported as infringing copyright. Getting back to the main story…Now under the threat of legal action, Justin.tv told its side of the story in front of the House Judiciary Committee this morning. “Justin.tv calls on the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, which they claim should provide them with a safe harbor for copyright-infringing content that appears on the website before they or the appropriate right owners get a chance to remove it … The startup states that it aims to bring live video into the mainstream much like Flickr, The Huffington Post and YouTube have done for online images, news and video clips. The question is: are they really doing everything they can to fight piracy?”

Find an interesting link? Email me any stories, videos or images you come across and would like to see included. Or just follow me on Twitter @RiskMgmt and pass it along that way.

Give AIG a Break

Okay, I said it: perhaps we’re being too harsh on AIG.

Sure, the company has some serious problems, and its liquidity crisis of 2008 will remain one of the worst business disasters of all time. But since then, AIG has somehow morphed from a deeply troubled company into an avatar of all things wrong with the corporate world. And while I won’t suggest we forget (or even forgive) AIG of the policies and actions that nearly tanked the world economy, we must resist the urge to make this company into things that it is not.

Villainization, while it may make us feel good, usually distracts us from the complexities of a situation we must somehow address. It’s easy to say that any given problem came about because somebody — that guy! over there! — was a greedy jerk. It’s far more difficult to see problems in a wider context, to understand how those problems came about, to address those problems on their own terms, and to take meaningful action to try to prevent those problems from arising again. But when we look at the magnitude of the AIG situation, we can take no other course of action. To do otherwise invites disaster to repeat itself. And really, who in their right mind would want to see a stock implosion like this one again in their lifetime?

This brings me to an editorial yesterday called “Kill AIG Now” by Eli Lehrer of the Heartland Institute, over on the Frum Forum. The Frum Forum is a right-leaning political site, and the Heartland Institute is a think tank that describes itself as a think tank for free market solutions to public policy problems, but a cursory look around the site shows that its views on environmentalism, healthcare and other issues aligns it with the remnants of the GOP trying to stake a claim in Obama’s world. On the whole, Lehrer writes some pretty interesting op-eds, but I don’t always agree with his interpretation of the facts, and that is certainly true here.

Before I go one word further, however, a moment of transparency is needed. AIG has been a generous advertiser on this blog’s parent media outlet, Risk Management magazine, and of Risk Management‘s parent, the Risk and Insurance Management Society, a trade association for risk managers — people who often buy very large amounts of insurance from companies such as AIG, and who are among the first to be hurt whenever a major insurer drops to the ground. The P/C wing of AIG, which has been re-branded as Chartis, is also a sponsor and an advertiser.

This next part is sure to draw a few hoots from our more cynical readers, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m not writing this article because we have a relationship with AIG and Chartis. I’m writing it because as I read “Kill AIG Now,” it seemed like another example of using commonly held half-truths about AIG — a firm nobody is in a rush to defend -— to promote agendas that don’t really reflect the reality of the situation.

This may sound like a joke coming from a journalist in this day and age, but I think that the truth is more important than somebody’s agenda. And to that end, I’d like to point out some problems I have with Lehrer’s editorial, because if we succumb to the temptation to cherry pick facts about AIG to support our arguments for other things, then we distort what AIG was, is and will be. And in so doing, we lose our grip on how AIG self-destructed, and we lose sight of how we can keep such a thing from happening again. So it is important to be fair when we talk about AIG. It is more than important. It is critical. And so we begin.

I first began raising my eyebrows over Lehrer’s comments on AIG’s Byzantine structure. There is no denying it, the company is a massive patchwork of subsidiaries that seems like a massive corporate Gordian knot. Given the company’s financial troubles, one might conclude that perhaps its labyrinthine inner workings played a part in that. And indeed, Lehrer makes such a suggestion, but it raises a question far bigger than the one it answers.

Although a number of other companies sold a product line-up similar to it, Greenberg’s AIG developed a uniquely confusing structure largely as a result of its acquisitive ways. When it collapsed in the fall of 2008 due to some terrible bets it made on credit default swaps, AIG consisted of over 1,500 legal entities, 71 America-based operating subsidiaries, and perhaps 50 brands. (State Farm, the insurer that does the most business in the U.S., has 12 U.S.-based operating subsidiaries and one brand.)

Although odd looking on paper, this structure gave AIG a strong competitive advantage and promotes economic instability now. It “worked” for two reasons.

First, the company was—and still is—largely “regulator proof” and able to engage in risky, high-return investments that state regulations mandating conservative financial strategies closed to most of its competitors. Like all other insurers, AIG is regulated separately by each jurisdiction where it operated and small state-level regulatory operations couldn’t always “follow the money” in a behemoth like AIG. The credit default swap trades that famously brought down the company were only one example of its exotic, high-flying investment strategy: the company also backed “rocket scientist” quantitative hedge funds and built ski resorts.

I won’t argue that AIG might be overly complex, structure-wise.

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However, to suggest that AIG kept such a structure because it allowed it more ability to sidestep state insurance regulators overlooks a larger issue: the structure of U.S. insurance regulation itself.

Not surprisingly, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners opposes the formation of a federal insurance czar, or even the Optional Federal Charter RIMS endorses because — and this is just my opinion here — it would strip them of the power they have enjoyed for so long. Never mind that the 50-regime system we have is loathed by insurers because it creates extra compliance costs and administrative headaches, to have a federal system to streamline things would somehow fail to serve the industry and the consumer, by the NAIC’s reckoning.

One thing is for sure, though, a simplified regulatory landscape indeed would make it much more difficult for another AIG to take advantage of loopholes. But frankly, to blame AIG for working an obviously broken system is a bit like blaming a dog for eating your lunch when you’ve laid it on the floor. First things first: overhaul insurance regulation. Somehow, given the political leanings of Heartland and Frum, i doubt there will be much call for that, however. We’ll see.

Point the second: AIG’s claims history. Hoo boy.

Second, many AIG subsidiaries—particularly those in highly priced competitive businesses—took a very hardnosed attitude towards paying policyholder claims. Although some of the horror stories about the company probably stemmed from resentment of financial success — then New York State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer launched a sometimes demagogic crusade against it — the overall strategy appeared to be the mostly legal although hardly consumer-friendly game plan of always interpreting contract language in ways that maximized corporate profits.

I have covered insurance journalism for about 15 years now, and if I have learned just one thing, it is this: every single insurance company out there either takes a “very hardnosed attitude toward paying policyholder claims” or they are chastising themselves for failing to do so. AIG may have played hardball, but to demonize them for it is ridiculous, given how much this is merely standard industry behavior. As the discipline of underwriting eroded across the board (especially during the 1990s) and as companies no longer could rely on their investment income to keep them going, they routinely turn to claims reduction as the last line of defense.

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AIG is no different in this.

And if Lehrer has a bunch of consumer testimonials to say that AIG behaved in a bastardly fashion, then guess what? Ask any resident of the Gulf Coast what they think of their insurance company, and you’ll probably get an earful of language that cannot be repeated in front of polite company.

I also like how Lehrer insinuates that AIG was perhaps acting illegally even though it could not be proven as such. This, my friends, is yellow journalism, pure and simple. If AIG’s claims patterns were in fact illegal, then I cannot believe in a legal environment as rapacious as the United States that such rascalism would not have been dragged out into the light and flogged in public. For all of his vigorous prosecution, not even Eliot Spitzer went after AIG for claims, he went after them for dodgy accounting.

Point the third: pricing.

But, there’s no hard evidence that AIG has systematically broken the law through its pricing. (Because insurance consists of a promise to pay at a future time, it’s illegal to sell an insurance policy at a price that doesn’t provide reasonable assurance that the company selling it will be able to pay claims.) Investigations from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and the Government Accountability Office both found that AIG is not using taxpayer bailout funds to under-price competitors in an illegal fashion. On the other hand, a late November analyst report from Sanford Bernstein sent AIG’s stock tumbling with the suggestion that several parts of the company lacked the resources to pay likely claims. Whatever the case one thing is clear: AIG—buoyed by government support—has continued to compete vigorously on price because the company was built to do so.

First off, again with the insinuation of wrongdoing. If AIG has practiced illegal pricing, then either acuse them of it or don’t. But reading Lehrer, I get the feeling that he’s taking a cheap shot at a firm widely perceived to be up to no good by a public (and a government) that really has no idea how any insurance company works, let alone one as large and as complex as AIG.

But, I digress.

The real point here is that AIG practices scorched earth pricing, ostensibly to force its competition to price at uneconomic levels, forcing them to endure pains that AIG can absorb much more easily. If this is the case, then we certainly aren’t hearing of it at the consumer level, as there has not been a single statewide push for rate rollbacks that made note of how artificially low rates were in the first place.

Plus, I find it strange for Lehrer to ping away on AIG’s pricing when, in other editorials, he excoriates states for not letting the market set its own prices for hurricane coverage. If we want a free market, then we can’t have it halfway, but that is just what seems to be proposed here. Free markets to give the government a pass on covering coastal risk, but not a free enough one to let a company like AIG throw its weight around like any other corporate apex predator might. What gives?

Lehrer even goes so far as to suggest that by competing on price, as it has and as it continues to do, AIG is depressing the entire P/C market, which is in turn hurting the larger economy. This is wildly oversimplistic and ignores the larger dynamics of the P/C pricing cycle. (For more on that, see Morgan O’Rourke’s market overview feature in our upcoming January/February issue if Risk Management)

All of this is diversionary, though. The ultimate point to be made here, is the one I disagree with the least, which brings us to point the fourth: what to do next?

If it wants to solve the problems that AIG poses, the government should put the company out of its misery. Even if the company remains in existence forever, its total debts will never be paid back because they are based on valuations of the company that assumed its strategy would result in long-term growth that never came. The money AIG lost is gone.

I am sure Lehrer isn’t the first to suggest that AIG be dissolved, nor will he be the last. And from a standpoint of getting government money back, perhaps dissolving AIG is indeed the only viable option.

But I wonder . . . is getting the money back really part of the strategy here? I think not.

AIG was saved because its complete downfall was seen as something that would so devastate world financial markets that the federal government had no choice but to step in, throw a king’s ransom (literally) at it and accept the lesser of two evils.

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When you get right down to it, that’s what national governments are, truly the insurers of last resort.

The big difference now is that the United States actually owns an insurance company because of it. I don’t know what the Obama administration has in mind ultimately, but I do know that saving AIG was a good idea. You know what would be an even better one, though? Fixing our fractured regulatory system so that another AIG can’t happen.

Suggesting that the government is overstaying its welcome into private enterprise after buying up AIG at a time of crisis is short-sighted, plays to the already tired free market mantra that underpins general opposition to the Obama administration and deflects from the real issue of regulatory reform. AIG’s problems stemmed from a variety of sources — an out-of-whack financial services unit, a market environment that rewarded greed over prudence and a leadership that either looked the other way or truly did not know what was happening in its own shop. But these are the ills not just of AIG, but of the entire corporate environment of the last ten years.

If we want to focus on a meaningful solution here, we need to look to regulation, and how badly the U.S. insurance market needs it, and needs it now.

Fired for Fantasy Football

Play fantasy football at work? You might want to double check your company’s policy on such an act.

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Recently, four workers at Fidelity Investments were fired for playing the addictive, online game.

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The Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reported that the mutual fund mammoth claims it laid off the employees (all league commissioners) because “participation in any form of gambling through the use of Fidelity time or equipment or an other company resource is prohibited,” according to one company spokesperson. But Cameron Pettigrew isn’t having it.

“One of my buddies sent me something about how bad Trent Edwards was playing or something like that,” Pettigrew said. “So they called me in and talked to me for about 90 minutes on everything I ever knew about fantasy football.

They interrogated me as though I was some sort of international gambling kingpin. Then they released me for the day, and I was like, ‘OK.’ I never thought they’d fire me for this, but, the next day, I get the call saying I had been terminated.”

To be fair, Fidelity does have a policy specifically against playing fantasy football at the office, but Pettigrew claims the policy was ignored by leadership — as those higher up were in leagues themselves. Pettigrew and pals were fired without warning — a cold act during tough times. Was Fidelity trying to send a tough message to other employees by strictly adhering to its poorly communicated “anti-fantasy football” rule or was the company looking for a reason to cut costs?

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Either way, it sheds a bad light on Fidelity and it almost goes without saying that they should prepare themselves for legal action.

So let me ask all of you this — do you play fantasy sports during work hours? Be honest, and anonymous if you wish.

Mega Disasters: The Yellowstone Supervolcano

There once was a glorious period of time after the History Channel stopped being “Hitler Central” but before it became the “Conspiracy Theory Broadcasting Network” when the channel played almost nothing but great programming. Whether it was a Band of Brothers marathon or that How the Earth Was Made documentary that I’ve watched like 12 times, you could generally tune in to History at any time night or day and find something great to watch.

Perhaps the greatest of these great shows was Mega Disasters. And, unquestionably, the greatest episode of Mega Disasters was the one that detailed the literal doomsday scenario of an eruption of the “supervolcano” lurking — for now — dormant beneath Yellowstone National Park.

The most recent eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera came 640,000 years ago and, according to these scientists, on that day “there would have been hundreds to thousands of earthquakes” as “a million tons of molten rock heated to 1800 degrees fahrenheit rushed to the surface.” In other words, that would have been the wrong day to go see Old Faithful. Or, really, just the wrong day to be a human being on planet Earth at all for that matter.

Anyway, the only reason I bring this up now is because I just happened to run across the episode in full on YouTube. If you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor. It’s tremendous.

And way better, scarier and better directed than 2012.

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Part 1

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Part 2

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Part 3

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Part 4

Yellowstone Supervolcano: Part 5