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When the Fail-Safe Fails

The New York Times today published the best, most comprehensive, most anger-inducing piece I have seen detailing the collective risk management failings that led to the Gulf oil spill. Clocking in at around 6,500 words, this thing is a doozy. But it is a report that everyone who wants to understand how this disaster really came to be needs to read.

The article focuses mainly on the failure of “blowout preventer,” a device attached to every well drilled in order to, you guessed it, prevent blowouts. While immensely complex and huge — it’s five stories tall and weighs hundreds of thousands of pounds — its purpose is to provide a shut-off method in case something goes wrong with the well.

Even more specifically, we get a wonderful lesson into the ultimate fail-safe: the “blind shear ram.” There are many components within the blowout preventer that must operate properly to shut off a well, but the blind shear ram is the final device that ultimately seals the thing. If it fails, the whole thing fails.

And all evidence is pointing to the fact that, on the Deepwater Horizon, it failed.

The process to activate the blind shear ram and seal the pipe is complex, but according to this article, the risks associated with that complexity were well known by all the players in the drilling industry. And on the Deepwater rig, no one did all that much to mitigate that risk. In contrast, in other instances, other companies and other rigs adopted redundancy as a way to ensure that a well shut-off would not be compromised.

These kinds of weaknesses were understood inside the oil industry, documents and interviews show. And given the critical importance of the blind shear ram, offshore drillers began adding a layer of redundancy by equipping their blowout preventers with two blind shear rams.
By 2001, when Transocean, now the world’s largest offshore drilling contractor, acquired the Deepwater Horizon, it had already begun equipping its new rigs with blowout preventers that could easily accommodate two blind shear rams.
Today, Transocean says 11 of its 14 rigs in the gulf have two blind shear rams. The company said the three rigs that do not were built before the Deepwater Horizon.
Likewise, every rig currently under contract with BP, which had been renting the Deepwater Horizon, comes with blowout preventers equipped with two blind shear rams, according to BP. While no guarantee against disaster, drilling experts said, two blind shear rams give an extra measure of reliability, especially if one shear ram hits on a joint connecting two drill pipes.
“It’s kind of like a parachute — it’s nice to have a backup,” said Dan Albers, a drilling engineer who is part of an independent investigation of the disaster.

Weaknesses were understood inside the oil industry, documents and interviews show. And given the critical importance of the blind shear ram, offshore drillers began adding a layer of redundancy by equipping their blowout preventers with two blind shear rams.

By 2001, when Transocean, now the world’s largest offshore drilling contractor, acquired the Deepwater Horizon, it had already begun equipping its new rigs with blowout preventers that could easily accommodate two blind shear rams.

Today, Transocean says 11 of its 14 rigs in the gulf have two blind shear rams. The company said the three rigs that do not were built before the Deepwater Horizon.

Likewise, every rig currently under contract with BP, which had been renting the Deepwater Horizon, comes with blowout preventers equipped with two blind shear rams, according to BP. While no guarantee against disaster, drilling experts said, two blind shear rams give an extra measure of reliability, especially if one shear ram hits on a joint connecting two drill pipes.

“It’s kind of like a parachute — it’s nice to have a backup,” said Dan Albers, a drilling engineer who is part of an independent investigation of the disaster.

In short, there were known issues with the ultimate, industry-standard fail-safe measure to prevent this type of spill. And in many cases — even most of those cases involving rigs constructed by Transocean and operated by BP — those issues were recognized and managed. But on the Deepwater Horizon, the most common method of managing that risk (redundancy) was not implemented.

Read into that whatever you like.

In fairness to BP and Transocean (something that’s hard to even try to provide anymore if I’m being honest), there is much, much, much, much, much more to all this. For example, the federal offshore drilling regulatory agency, the Minerals Management Service, knew all about these very same risks and never adequately ensured that any company do anything about them.

The federal agency charged with regulating offshore drilling, the Minerals Management Service, repeatedly declined to act on advice from its own experts on how it could minimize the risk of a blind shear ram failure…Even in one significant instance where the Minerals Management Service did act, it appears to have neglected to enforce a rule that required oil companies to submit proof that their blind shear rams would in fact work.

There is also ton of evidence that blowout preventers and blind shear rams — inherently — aren’t that great at stopping a well on an industrywide basis.

Using the world’s most authoritative database of oil rig accidents, a Norwegian company, Det Norske Veritas, focused on some 15,000 wells drilled off North America and in the North Sea from 1980 to 2006. It found 11 cases where crews on deepwater rigs had lost control of their wells and then activated blowout preventers to prevent a spill. In only six of those cases were the wells brought under control, leading the researchers to conclude that in actual practice, blowout preventers used by deepwater rigs had a “failure” rate of 45 percent.

Plus, there’s this:

More than three decades ago, the failure of a shear ram was partly to blame for one of the largest oil spills on record, a blowout at the Ixtoc 1 well off the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. Descriptions of the accident at the time detailed problems both with the shear ram’s ability to cut through thick pipe and with a burst line carrying hydraulic fluids to the blowout preventer.

In 1990, a blind shear ram could not snuff out a major blowout on a rig off Texas. It cut the pipe, but investigators found that the sealing mechanism was damaged. And in 1997, a blind shear ram was unable to slice through a thick joint connecting two sections of drill pipe during a blowout of a deep oil and gas well off the Louisiana coast.

Honestly, I could excerpt this whole article. It details so many instances where so many industry players did so little to solve the so very well known risks of drilling.

So infuriating.

So … really, you should just go read it in full. Additionally, here is the accompanying Times video that helps explain what exactly a blind shear ram is and how it works — in theory, of course.

Safeguarding the World Cup

world cup cape town

For 10 days, the World Cup has been captivating the globe. Widely considered the greatest event in sports, fans have been riveted by the daily matches from South Africa featuring soccer legends like Lionel Messi from Argentina, Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal and Wayne Rooney of England. But while the players make the “Beautiful Game” look effortless, the preparation to ready the country for this tournament of 32 nations was anything but.

Building stadiums, improving transportation infrastructure and ensuring security took a Herculean effort in a country that escaped Apartheid just 16 years ago and, even today, struggles to overcome societal ills including a 25% unemployment rate, some 50 murders per day and a population where 11% of South Africa’s nearly 50 million citizens live with HIV.

Munich Re, for example, was brought in to aid construction of a new high-speed rail project.

The rail link was planned and approved long before South Africa was awarded the World Cup. However, there is no doubt that the World Cup speeded up the construction project, which was started in 2006.

Munich Re was also involved in the mammoth upgrade of “Soccer City,” the Johannesburg stadium that is the nation’s crown jewel for this year’s World Cup. (See video below for more on the renovation.)

February 2007 saw the beginning of stadium renovation, which was covered by way of a CAR policy. The stadium, renovated at a cost of 300 million pounds and ten million working hours, will host the opening ceremony, the opening game and the tournament final. Its new design takes its inspiration from traditional African pottery and resembles a calabash. The renovation work, completed in October 2009, increased Soccer City’s capacity from 80,000 to 94,000, making it the biggest stadium in Africa.

Additionally, Munich Re insured the construction of at least two other stadiums that were built from the ground up for the World Cup.

Then, of course, comes coverage for the games themselves. In all, some $9 billion in insurance was taken out before the games, most of which covered property, game cancellation, broadcast failure and liability issues.

That’s just for the games themselves. Lloyd’s turned to Chris Nash, an underwriter at Sportscover, for some additional input on the “vast range of potential coverage.” He rattled off a list that includes competitions, offers, prizes, sponsorships, and broadcast rights. “It’s impossible to know how many there are, but all companies with these financial implications need coverage,” he explained. “When you take this into account along with the number of broadcasters around the world airing the games, I’d probably estimate the whole thing at around £3 billion [$4.33 billion].”

What it all comes down to is that, for all companies involved in this year’s World Cup, there is a lot more than goals, trophies and international bragging rights on the line. They stand to make — or lose — millions depending on how the tournament plays out.

The last time the World Cup was canceled was World War II. These days, the business of sports is much bigger, and so are the potential losses.

Between the opening ceremony for the 2010 World Cup on June 11 and the presentation of the trophy a month later, almost 100 hours of live soccer is being broadcast around the world. Soccer federation FIFA earned $2.7 billion in total from the broadcast rights at the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, according to FIFA’s figures.

FIFA said it took out an insurance policy to provide coverage of $650 million in the event of the postponement or relocation of the games. This policy covered acts of terrorism, natural disaster, epidemics, war and accidents. Munich Re’s share of this policy is the largest at $350 million.

And while South Africa, the first country on the continent to host the World Cup, struggles with its reputation as a crime hot spot, crime doesn’t directly affect contingency and liability insurance for the World Cup. Instead, it would have been a concern for fans insuring their trip, according to Emily Hughes, a spokeswoman at Lloyds.
The last time the World Cup was canceled was World War II. These days, the business of sports is much bigger, and so are the potential losses.
Between the opening ceremony for the 2010 World Cup on June 11 and the presentation of the trophy a month later, almost 100 hours of live soccer is being broadcast around the world. Soccer federation FIFA earned $2.7 billion in total from the broadcast rights at the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, according to FIFA’s figures.
FIFA said it took out an insurance policy to provide coverage of $650 million in the event of the postponement or relocation of the games. This policy covered acts of terrorism, natural disaster, epidemics, war and accidents. Munich Re’s share of this policy is the largest at $350 million.

Though the worst threats have been avoided so far, the very first week did provide cause for concern, as striking employees from a private security firm hired to protect a stadium in Cape Town clashed with local law enforcement on June 17.

Police in Cape Town fired a stun grenade and rubber bullets to break up a protest Thursday of more than a hundred private guards who had been hired to provide security at a World Cup soccer stadium.

The clash was the latest incident involving employees of Stallion Security Consortium, whose employees were replaced by police officers at four stadiums around the country after the workers walked off the job in a pay dispute with their employer.

Although the labor dispute hasn’t affected the World Cup games, the incidents highlight simmering tensions in a country where many workers remain poorly paid and unemployment is about 25%. State power company Eskom is in the midst of negotiations to avoid a pay strike that could disrupt electricity supplies. A three-week strike over wages last month paralyzed the country’s ports and freight rail.

Fortunately, security has still largely been maintained throughout the country since the tournament began and the worst fears of many have not been realized, despite this first scare. Let’s hope it is also the last.

A video showing the transformation of Soccer City in Johannesburg into the largest, most iconic stadium in Africa.

The Best of the Best: The Top 50 S&P Performers

top 50 image

With the economy on a slow climb back to (hopefully) pre-recession levels, many companies are seeing an improvement to their battered balance sheets. As Bloomberg Businessweek states, its list of the top 50 “is a reminder of the American economy’s ceaseless ability to renew itself.”

Here is a snapshot of the top 10:

  1. Priceline.com
    Surprised at this ranking? So was I, but it seems that this online discount travel agency has thrived thanks to CEO Jeffery H. Boyd‘s management. Boyd took the helm soon after September 11 and saved the company from what looked like a dismal death. The William Shatner-branded company “reinvented itself and went on to score a total return of 911.9% for shareholders over the past five years.”
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  2. Intuitive Surgical
    This company is rocking in the “computer-assisted surgery market,” helping doctors remove tumors by looking at a monitor that shows robotic arms equipped with scalpels and needles. Its 2009 net income was recorded at $232.6 million.
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  3. Southwestern Energy
    This domestic natural gas exploration and production company is enjoying the limelight (in both revenue and reputation) after its energy industry rival (oil) has been shown in a negative light recently.
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  4. Apple
    A no-brainer here, Apple has consistently ranked high compared to other, high performing companies. As Boston Analytics company, Trefis, states, “sales of iPhones account for nearly half the stock’s value.”
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  5. Salesforce.com
    A power player in the customer relationship management (CRM) software field since its founding in 1999, Salesforce.com has kept up with the continuously changing landscape of technology. The company is set to announce a “set of Facebook-like tools” that will allow users to share data in real time.
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  6. Express Scripts
    This pharmacy benefits company has enjoyed reduced costs and increased profits due in part to CEO George Paz’s application of “behavioral economics” to encourage smarter consumer practices.
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  7. Flowserve
    A dominant company within the diversified machinery industry, Flowserve has thrived by “selling and servicing valves, pumps, seals and other machinery for energy producers.”
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  8. FMC Technologies
    Though 2009 was a prosperous year for this company’s offshore drilling and production technology, the current moratorium on offshore drilling may hurt its bottom line in the short-term.
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  9. Cliffs Natural Resources
    As North America’s number one iron ore producer, this company has benefited from Chinese demand. CEO Joseph A. Carrabba “expects more than $1.5 billion in cash from operations in 2010.”
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  10. Amazon.com
    A veteran in the realm of successful companies, Amazon.com just keeps improving. The company’s sales surged a whopping 28% last year.

For a complete listing Bloomberg Businessweek‘s ranking of the top 50 winning stocks in the S&P 500, click here.

Predicting Earthquakes

Never heard of USArray? Neither had I until this morning.

USArray is a 15-year old program that places networks of seismographs across the United States that record local, regional and distant earthquakes. Using data from historical “geological hazards” (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, etc.) and analyzing continental fault lines, the program works to determine the most earthquake-prone areas.

The project, which involves a traveling network of 400 high-quality, portable seismographs placed in temporary sites, will reach the halfway mark this summer in its goal to measure upheavals beneath the earth’s surface from California to Maine, says project director Bob Woodward.

The findings will give scientists a more detailed picture in regards to earthquake activity in the U.S., New Madrid Seismic Zoneespecially in the Pacific Northwest, an area that has experienced considerable seismic activity within the last several years. The information gathered will not only help scientists understand earthquakes, but will also educate residents of those areas about the dangers of such a catastrophe and could also lead to stricter building codes in such places.

Though earthquakes occur most along the West coast, they are also a common occurrence along the New Madrid seismic zone, an area named after New Madrid, Missouri, where a series of massive earthquakes occurred in 1811 and 1812.

But what if an earthquake were to hit the Northeast? A January 14th Congressional Service Report addressed that question. The report states that there could be approximately $900 billion in damages, including,  “damage to the heavily populated central New Jersey-Philadelphia corridor if a 6.5-magnitude earthquake occurred along a fault lying between New York City and Philadelphia.”

The USArray project involves a traveling network of 400 portable seismographs that started on the West Coast and is currently moving east.

Before the instruments were installed, “it was kind of like taking a picture with a camera with only a few pixels,” Woodward says. “With 400 stations out there, it’s like having a much higher resolution camera. So now you can directly see the seismic waves rolling across the country.”

The costliest earthquake in the world (measured by insured losses) was the January 17th, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake, which totaled $15.3 million. With those kind of numbers, any tool to help scientists and society better understand, and possibly predict, earthquakes is invaluable.