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The World Is Becoming a Riskier Place — But That Isn’t Always a Bad Thing for Companies

That the world is getting riskier should be pretty obvious to anyone who has been paying attention since 9/11 kicked off a horrible decade that included Enron, Katrina, the Great Recession, the Gulf oil spill and whatever it is that is going on right now in Washington, London, Southern Europe and on Wall Street.

Nevertheless, Property Casualty 360 has asked 36 risk professionals to answer the question: “Is the World Becoming a Riskier or Safer Place?”

I haven’t read all of the responses yet, but I have talked with most of these people in the past so I presume the consensus agrees that the world is riskier now than ever before. (In a business sense anyway. Indeed, the MAD threat during of the Cold War era was pretty … umm … risky back then. Black Death was also a little scarier than anything I can think of.)

Carol Fox of RIMS had a good take on the question, which (not surprisingly given her role here at RIMS, which, if you didn’t know, is the organization that pays my salary) shows a more nuanced outlook that notes the strategic advantages that risks can provide.

There is much more uncertainty given the complexity and speed of change in today’s world than was the case 50, or even 20, years ago.

The key is to understand that risk isn’t only to be avoided or mitigated. Risks are to be understood in light of an organization’s objectives for their relevance, importance and certainty so that the known risks that can “improve our position” can be exploited, and those that can “worsen our position” can be managed. Those risks that are most uncertain, whether known or unknown, become the basis for scenario planning, so that the organization can consider them in light of its overall strategy, as well as its future resilience and sustainability planning.

As is too often forgotten, without risk, there would be not opportunity. If producing oil and distributing gasoline were risk-free endeavors, every company would be Exxon. If investing in the creation of revolutionary technology to leverage the death of non-digital music carried no downside, every company would be Apple.

Risk isn’t always bad for companies.

Head over to PC360 for the other 35 responses.

Q&A on Post-Catastrophe Fraud

According to a recent Munich Re finding, 2011 has become the highest-ever loss year on record due to natural catastrophes. Though most of the losses were caused by the earthquake in Japan, the U.S. has seen its share of cat losses and claims — some fraudulent. To learn more about the of post-catastrophe fraud, I questioned Gary Kerney of ISO.

After the Alabama tornadoes and the Missouri River floods, was there a dramatic increase in the amount of claims fraud?

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The recovery and rebuilding processes in many of the areas affected by severe weather this spring are only just beginning. There have been no claims fraud per se detected yet. There have been reports of fraud in previous catastrophes where property owners allegedly damaged buildings to pursue insurance claims. Such allegations were usually tied to lack of insurance. For example, much flooding occurred in areas of Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina. Some property owners who did not have flood insurance are alleged to have subsequently and intentionally inflicted damage to their own building to make the loss appear to be wind related because there was appropriate coverage for the wind peril.

Do you have any specific examples of claims fraud from these events that stand out in your mind?

Since there have been no large scale incidents noted yet, there are none that we can comment on specifically because it is still early in the recovery phase. As noted above, though, we can look back at other events, such as Hurricane Katrina, and find instances where reports of fraud were alleged.
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Again, much of such reported fraud activity was likely due to the absence of insurance that would normally provide money to pay for repair or replacement of damaged property. Another development that followed Katrina involved cases in which jurors reportedly felt sympathy for defendants accused of fraud – who were faced with the financial inability to repair a home or business. Some jurors were reported to have concluded they might have done the same thing under the extenuating circumstances.

Why were residents compelled to commit such fraud?

Property owners, both residential and commercial, may consider committing fraud when there is a lack of insurance or the amount of insurance is insufficient to provide for full and complete replacement or repair of the damaged property. There is a need for capital to replace the damaged structure and the lost contents. If insurance cannot fully fund the recovery, some people may consider resorting to fraudulent measures to obtain the money needed. Potential fraud activities are not only directed at insurers but can also involve attempts to obtain more money in assistance grants from government agencies such as FEMA.

How can insurers prepare for and deal with post-catastrophe claims fraud?

Insurers can anticipate some fraud activity in any kind of catastrophe ranging from a hailstorm to a hurricane. Sometimes the property owner is not aware of a fraud being perpetrated since it may in fact be the contractor or repairer who commits the fraud with inflated fees or by creating additional damage to the structure.

How can they prevent it?

Insurers take actions to reduce the impact of fraud. Adjusters are trained to identify what appear to be “red flags” for fraud. Insurers can have claims analyzed by an organization such as ClaimSearch to help identify fraud or parties to prior fraudulent schemes. Not all fraud can be prevented. However, much of it can be and is reduced through vigilance and the use of tools designed to help identity it.

What are catastrophe anti-fraud plans?

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Most insurance carriers include anti-fraud training as part of the company’s catastrophe response plan. The carriers use information developed by organization such as the National Insurance Crime Bureau to inform adjusters and others involved in the claims process regarding indicators of fraud.

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Adjusters are trained to be vigilant; however, adjusters are also expected to pay rightful claims as quickly as possible so that policyholders can begin their recovery efforts as quickly as possible. In addition, carriers often include Special Investigation Units as part of the first response to a disaster so that from the beginning the carriers can identify and react to potential fraudulent activity.
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Responses by Gary Kerney, assistant vice president of ISO’s Property Claim Services® (PCS®) division. ISO (www.iso.com) is the flagship subsidiary of Verisk Analytics (www.verisk.com).

The Global Stock Sell-Off and Risk Management

Stocks have been clobbered worldwide over the past week. Yesterday, the Dow fell 4.3% in trading on its worst day since 2008, erasing all the gains it had struggled to make so far in 2011. Worse still, Bloomberg has reported that “more than $4.5 trillion has been erased from the value of equities worldwide since July 26.”

UK trading on Friday just closed with the FTSE 100 plummeting another 2.7%, dampening hopes that U.S. markets might rally before the weekend following some relatively positive news on unemployment. (Only 9.1% of people actively looking for jobs now can’t find employment can’t find any instead of 9.2%. YAY.)

All these numbers are brutal. You know things are bad when you go to the homepage of the Wall Street Journal and see it littered with words and phrases like “global rout,” “turmoil,” “volatile,” “heavy losses,” “weakens,” “stalls,” “Be Prepared for More Losses” and, my personal favorite, “An Absolute Bloodbath.”

Many are claiming this is just a market correction.

Stocks were artificially high and the combination of the ongoing debt crisis (something perhaps poised to worsen in September) and whatever it was that just happened in Washington over the past month spooked investors enough to force the markets back down to where they should be.

At this point, I think that’s what everyone is hoping for. If this is just a one-week bath for the markets and normalcy returns, no one will be thrilled, but it will be just a singular beating.

“Curious Capitalist” Michael Schuman worries things might be much scarier, however.

Why are markets tanking? In my opinion, the only thing surprising about the selloff is that some people seem to be surprised by it. The ascent of stock prices earlier this year, especially in the U.S., was detached from the reality of the world economy. Investors seemed to be simply ignoring the constant drumbeat of bad news. Growth in the U.S. has been weaker than expected, unemployment remains stubbornly high and the housing crisis is far from over. The euro zone debt debacle is intensifying, with giants Italy and Spain increasingly under pressure. Inflation has forced emerging markets like China and India to slow down their overheating economies. Oil and food prices, while no longer rising rapidly, are still at elevated levels, eating into consumption spending around the world. The optimism at the beginning of the year about the strength of the recovery was way overblown. We are still suffering from the fallout from the Great Recession. Investors were in denial about the obvious risks. Not anymore. Stock markets are supposed to be forward indicators; today investors are just playing catch up.

Schuman goes on, explaining what he sees as the impetus for the next major global economic meltdown: debt in the European Union.

as the euro zone debt crisis grows in size, we should be asking if European sovereign debt is the ticking time bomb. Greece may not be Lehman but crises in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy could add up to something just as scary as the 2008 Wall Street meltdown, with sovereign bonds playing the lethal role of subprime securities.

Uncertainty is the enemy of risk management.

And we have spent the past decade learning the harsh lesson that it is only increasing. The relative calm of the industrial era is gone and chaos is the new normal. Markets, technology, natural disasters and regional disruptions, among others things, all seem increasingly unpredictable insofar as how they affect the global business world.

Who knows if what Scuman is suggesting could happen actually will? Analysts have been both under- and over-estimating the euro zone debt crisis all year.

But at this point, even if that isn’t what throws the next major wrench into your operating plans, something else likely will.

Risk managers who want to actually help their organizations navigate the ever-present minefield of uncertainty need to realize that there is always going to be something entirely unexpected around the corner. Continue to plan for the foreseeable, but also realize that an increasingly important aspect of your profession is reacting to things that you never saw coming.

July/August Issue of Risk Management Now Online

Faithful readers: the June issue of Risk Management magazine is now online. The cover story focuses on how rating agencies gained so much power, helped tank the economy and figure into the future of risk management. Other features explore a possible turn in the property/casualty insurance market cycle and Risk Management‘s 7th annual captive domicile review.

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