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Tropical Storm Michael Upgraded to Hurricane, Approaches Florida

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The National Hurricane Center classified Tropical Storm Michael as a category 3 hurricane Monday morning as it passed through Cuba and approached Florida.

Over the weekend, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for several counties from the Gulf Coast to Navarre on the Panhandle to the Suwanee River. Gov. Scott also directed the state’s National Guard to activate 500 guardsmen to assist with planning and prepare for response in impacted areas as the state monitors the storm.

Michael is currently located in the Yucatan Channel about 600 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm is moving to the north at 7 mph and is expected to continue strengthening as it accelerates northward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to make landfall as a Category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend on Oct 10.
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Storm surges are expected as well, with eight to 12 feet possible. Homeowners and business owners who might be in its path are encouraged to visit floridadisaster.org and FloridaDisaster.biz and register to receive updates as the storm progresses.

Hurricane Irma hit Florida in August 2017, and that category 5 storm caused an estimated $64.76 billion, causing 134 fatalities and affecting several crops and agricultural producers. With Florida still recovering from the damage wrought by Irma, Hurricane Michael may provide major challenges for businesses caught in its path.

Business Continuity Plans
In January, Risk Management Monitor reported that 62% of large U.S. companies with operations in Florida, Texas or Puerto Rico said they were not fully prepared for major storms and hurricanes in 2017.

“These candid admissions drive home a fundamental truth about catastrophe,” Louis Gritzo, vice president and manager of research at FM Global said in a statement in conjunction with the company’s findings. “People routinely fail to understand or acknowledge the magnitude of risk until they’ve experienced a fateful event.”

FEMA’s business disaster continuity plans can be found here, and a Hurricane Ready Business Toolkit can be found here. According to FEMA and the Department of Labor, 40% of small businesses will not reopen immediately after a hurricane hits, 25% more will close about one year later, and 75% of business without a continuity plan will fail within three years. In the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, Risk Management Monitor provided critical tips for small businesses preparing for the next natural disaster.

The first step for any small business is to prepare internally. Here are three best practices that small-business owners can adapt to prepare for a future hurricane or any other natural disaster.

  1. Establish a recovery plan: Often, disaster recovery plans fall to the bottom of small-business owners’ to-do lists, especially if their business is located in an area that doesn’t typically experience high-risk weather. However, no business is immune from a harmful storm’s impact. Disaster preparedness starts with a formal plan that’s comprehensive and allows the company to quickly restore its normal operations following an emergency.
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  2. Discuss your plan with all employees: It is crucial for your entire staff to be on the same page when it comes to what your disaster plan involves in order for it to be effective. So once small-business owners have a plan in place, they need to ensure that their employees know what’s included and what their responsibilities are should a natural disaster strike.
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    Owners can share this information by emailing a copy to all employees and discussing the plan in detail at the next all-hands meeting.

  3. Back up your business’s data: Small-business owners should ensure their data is backed up both virtually and physically in a secure location. Doing so can prevent a natural disaster from turning into an even worse data loss debacle.

The last October landfalling hurricane in the Florida Panhandle was Hurricane Opal in 1995. Throughout the storm’s path from Central America into the Ohio Valley, 63 people died in storm-related events. Losses attributed to Opal exceeded $4.7 billion, much of which took place in the United States.

RIMS Legislative Summit Focuses on NFIP Renewal

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WASHINGTON, D.C.—The menacing presence of Hurricane Florence turned the focus at the RIMS Legislative Summit to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), an ever-important issue for business owners across the country.

The NFIP has been extended several times since September 2017 and the next deadline to reauthorize the program is Nov. 30. The summit’s timing was especially relevant as Hurricane Florence approached the Eastern Seaboard just 300 miles south of the summit, expected to make landfall on Friday.

An Industry Perspective of Federal Legislative Issues
Moderated by Whitney Craig, RIMS director of government relations, a panel discussion, “NFIP & Beyond” featured insight from Jennifer Webb, counsel for the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, and Joel Wood and Blaire Bartlett of the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers and its CouncilPAC.

The panelists came to a consensus that a reauthorized NFIP was critical, and that upcoming midterm elections would influence the amount of time an extension would be granted. They acknowledged that a gap in coverage is certainly not ideal and said their offices are working on a bi-partisan resolution.

Bartlett said that improving NFIP through privatization will be a give-and-take process.

“To its credit, FEMA has done what it is able to do as far as claims processing goes. They have taken a multiyear look. If you want to open up the private markets, that will have to be balanced with some claims legislation—we’re going to have to give in some on claims language,” Bartlett said, noting that, “If Hurricane Florence does hit the Carolinas, some of the members may not be willing to call out the federal government the way New Yorkers did after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.”

And while there were some civil disagreements, the trio did find some common ground. For example, FEMA’s flood maps were rebuked for failing when put to the test by a real flood as seen in Houston in 2017 following Hurricane Harvey.

“I think we can agree that NFIP needs some modernizations, but there’s a way to do that without closing down a program that is being used by 5 million people,” Webb said.  “We didn’t see that in Texas but we could see it in the Carolinas.”

Congressional Staff Panel
This panel featured two senior congressional staffers for the U.S. House of Representatives – John Y. Hair, financial services committee designee for Congressman John Duffy (R-WI); and Lucas West, legislative director for Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO).

Discussions largely centered on NFIP reauthorization, Hurricane Florence and the upcoming elections.

“We have just over two months to get it through before the expiration and it’s really on the Senate. We’re putting pressure on the Senate for a long-term, five-year bill that actually makes some reforms,” Hair said.

Also discussed was the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), which created a temporary federal program that provides public and private compensation due to terrorism-related losses, which is set to expire in December 2020. And while the traditional issues of insurance were discussed, cybersecurity, data breaches and even autonomous vehicles were also included.

Regarding autonomous vehicles, Hair said, “Certainly, access to data is going to be important on decisions regarding ‘who’s going to take the liability [in the event of a crash]?’ This could lead to a huge push to reform our liability system. We’re engaging in the risk of [commercial and taxi driver] licenses right now.”

Midterm Election: Insider Update
Mike Gula, co-founder of Gula Graham, the largest Republican fundraising firm in the U.S., discussed how attendees, members and their companies can strategically position themselves with upcoming midterm elections in November.

Gula said that because dozens of congressional seats are up for grabs in the election, companies and insurers may need to prepare for changes to laws that will impact their policies and coverage.

On day two of the summit, dozens of RIMS members descended on Capitol Hill for meetings with congressional leaders. The goal was to share RIMS priorities for a long-term, reauthorized NFIP via H.R. 2874, the 21st Century Flood Reform Act, and funding for non-regulatory maps that project future flood risks. Later, in the Rayburn House Office Building, Florida Congressman Dennis Ross spoke to RIMS members and echoed their sentiments about NFIP and how flood maps were in desperate need of a thorough update.

Access RIMScast coverage of the summit.

Looking Back at the Big Flood: Time to Examine Your ‘Human Supply Chain’

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The devastation left behind after Hurricane Harvey is a reminder that people are a critical link in the effort to build community storm resilience. We often remind our customers that to prepare for a disaster, they need to consider their supply chain risk—will they be able to access goods and services in the aftermath of a storm.

One area that is often overlooked is what is often called the human supply chain, which consists of your employees, customers and others members of your community.

Beyond ensuring that your employees are safe, business owners may need to consider other concerns: Do you have a plan that will allow your employees to continue working during the recovery? Can they work remotely? Are your employees trained in disaster preparedness? If your business relies on local customers, are they able to access your goods and services? What about rescue personnel and other business owners that provide goods and services to support the community?
Think of the human supply chain as a network of individuals who help your business to survive and continue to thrive after a disaster, like Hurricane Harvey, which dumped trillions of gallons of water on Texas a year ago.

Ensuring that this living, breathing supply chain remains connected is one of the recommendations culled from 13 in-depth studies that Zurich has produced on the impacts of natural disasters around the world. The latest report, “Houston and Hurricane Harvey: a call to action,” was released at the start of the 2018 hurricane season.

Zurich has developed a methodology called the Post Event Review Capability (PERC), which is an approach to understanding why a hazard becomes a disaster, and then from that, identifying entry points for building resilience.

A report released earlier this month highlights some of the lessons learned from these PERC studies and encourages businesses and communities to focus on resilience to prepare for future storms.

The report identifies some common truths about major storms:

  • Every dollar spent on disaster preparedness saves four dollars in future losses;
  • Early warnings paired with contingency and emergency planning can save lives and protect businesses; and
  • Risk managers and communities must “build back better” to strengthen resilience after a disaster strikes.

The report also emphasizes the human element in storm preparation and recovery. For example, one of the central lessons that emerged from the PERC studies is that successful response operations are mostly reliant on institutions. Providing equipment, access to food and showers, assisting with cleanup and offering paid time off for employees can go a long way towards supporting a community and creating a culture of assistance.

Business leaders should provide employee readiness training, the report concludes. Some companies already do this, making preparedness a part of business as usual. One such company regularly schedules “disaster recovery days.” The company will randomly announce, “It’s flooding today, work from home,” to practice employee readiness for the real thing.

This recognition that humans play a critical role in the recovery process is partly why Zurich continues to support SBP, an organization that seeks to shorten the time between disaster and recovery.

Zurich has worked with SBP since 2009, helping the nonprofit bring hundreds of families back home after Hurricane Katrina. SBP has remained in Southeast Texas since Harvey to help aid in the recovery efforts there.

Recognizing the need for home and business owners to identify and mitigate their risks prior to disasters, Zurich in 2014 committed a $3 million grant to SBP through its Z-Zurich Foundation. The grant helped fund SBP’s Disaster Resilience & Recovery Lab, an initiative through which SBP trains home and business owners in 30 communities at risk for disasters across the United States over the course of three years.

In the future, hurricanes will continue to wreak havoc, destroying homes and lives, damaging critical infrastructure and shuttering businesses, but it’s important to remember that humans are the key to resilience. Keeping people safe, engaged and part of the recovery process can help ensure that communities remain resilient in the face of major storms.

Despite A ‘Near-Average’ Forecast, Hurricane Flooding May Increase

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With so many businesses and individuals affected by Hurricanes including Maria, Harvey and Irma in 2017, risk managers and insurers are looking to revised forecasts of this year’s hurricane season for a glimmer of hope that 2018 will not bring the same destruction. They may have found it in new information released by Colorado State University, which indicates that a near-average season is likely. It predicts 14 named storms between now and Nov. 30, of which six would become hurricanes. But the caveat is that one immense storm during a “near-average” season can still wreak havoc on businesses and homes.
The criteria is heavily based on the number of hurricanes and not their economic impact. Look to other years with similar buzzword descriptors to determine if its impact is included in your organization’s systematic risk.

“The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Most of those years endured damage caused by heavy tropical storms—the most noteworthy was 2011 when Hurricane Irene touched down and ultimately cost $15 billion alone. Klotzbach’s team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 135% of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity, highlighted by Harvey, Irma and Maria, exceeded average season expectations by about 245%.

Given the outlook, experts are still optimistic about the insurance industry’s resilience. A recent Moody’s report noted that despite last year’s losses, the reinsurance industry has sufficient capital to absorb hurricane-related claims.

“Hurricanes, particularly Harvey, Irma and Maria, alongside other catastrophe events last year wiped out a number of reinsurers’ profitability for the year and drove the sector’s profitability to its lowest level since 2005,” analyst Rocio Nunez said in a statement.

Here Comes The Flood
There is another risk associated with hurricanes that could also explain the rising costs and number of claims. The storms themselves—not their windspeeds—have been moving slower than they did 70 years ago. With the collective pace of weather systems slowing down, the risk for flooding increases. Jim Kossin, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), recently published findings and offered some theories to explain why storms and hurricanes are overstaying their welcome.

According to his recent report, A Global Slowdown of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed:

One thing scientists do know is that the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles. And, this may be related to or even causing the overall slowdown.

Using the ‘operational best-track’ data from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), the 2017 mean-over-land Atlantic translation speed is 17.9 km h-1, which is at the slowest 20th percentile of over-land translation speeds for the period since 1949.

Some experts believe that global warming also contributes to the slower pace since it “weakens the summertime circulation of the atmosphere in the tropics.” Still, a stalled hurricane and ongoing precipitation may be too much for some infrastructures to handle, as was demonstrated in Houston last year.

Hindsight
The 2017 hurricane season was undoubtedly a wakeup call for the United States, as it saw 12 named storms causing 100 deaths—68 from Hurricane Harvey alone—and is considered the 17th deadliest hurricane season since 1990. With regard to economic impact, last year’s natural disasters between June 1 and Nov. 30 caused $200 billion in reported damages, making it the second-costliest season on record behind the 2005 season.

“Hurricane Harvey was a different beast—its movement stalled because of high pressure regions that essentially blocked its path. It’s not clear whether we’ll see that specific situation more commonly as the world warms,” an Ars Technica article noted. Other ways in which climate change contributed to Harvey’s impact—like warmer ocean water and warmer air holding more water vapor—are more obvious.

Risk Management Monitor reported that the majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admitted to being unprepared for the hurricanes that devastated their communities in 2017. According to a survey by FM Global, 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not entirely prepared.