The Leaders of Italy’s Disaster-warning Agency Resign

The head of Italy’s disaster-warning committee, Luciano Maiani, has resigned in protest over the sentencing of seven of the organization’s members for underestimating the risks of a deadly 2009 earthquake. The commission’s vice president, Mauro Rosi, and president emeritus, Giuseppe Zamberletti, also resigned.

The April 2009 earthquake rocked the central Italian town of L’Aquila, killing 309 people and leaving thousands homeless. The seven defendants were members of the country’s Major Risks Committee, which met in L’Aquila March 31, 2009 — six days before the 6.

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3-magnitude quake struck. The seven have been found guilty of manslaughter, accused of providing “inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory” information after small tremors were first felt.

Maiami, one of Italy’s top physicists and a former head of the top partical physics laboratory Cern in Geneva, criticised the verdict as “a big mistake.”

“These are professionals who spoke in good faith and were by no means motivated by personal interests, they had always said that it is not possible to predict an earthquake,” he told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

“It is impossible to produce serious, professional and disinterested advice under this mad judicial and media pressure. This sort of thing doesn’t happen anywhere else in the world.

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This is the end of scientists giving consultations to the state.”

The seven defendants were given six-year prison sentences and they, along with the Prime Minister’s office, were ordered to pay 7.8 million euros in damages.

There has been an outcry from both the Italian and international scientific community, who say these individuals shouldn’t be punished if their forecasts don’t come true.

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The American Association for the Advancement of Science has has called the convictions “unfaire and naive,” while the The Guardian has written that “few scientists will want to take responsibility for similar statements in the future.”

Scientific American takes a different stance, however. Risk perception consultant David Ropeik, in a guest blog post for the publication, feels the Italian scientists were at fault for failing to communicate the risks to the public. It’s tough to disagree with Ropeik.

The meeting that was held six days before the earthquake was called after a swarm of tremors shook the area. Seeing this as no major reason to expect an earthquake, the group gathered for what they called a media operation — basically, a meeting to calm the public’s fears, when what they should have been doing was preparing the public in case a major quake were to follow the tremors. Even worse is the following:

In a leaked telephone call, Guido Bertolaso, then head of the civil protection agency, told a local official that he was calling the meeting as “more of a media operation.” The top civil protection official at the meeting, Bernardo De Bernardinis, said in a television interview that residents faced “no danger” and should sit back with a glass of wine – recommending a Montepulciano.

Six days after that Montepulciano recommendation, 309 people were dead. And though a six-year sentence seems too harsh, someone must be held accountable — not for failing to predict, but for nonchalantly failing to educate and warn the public of what could occur.

Gulf Coast Readies for Hurricane Isaac

Today, tropical storm Isaac became Hurricane Isaac. And the slow-moving storm, with sustained winds over 75 mph, looks to be on a collision course with the Gulf Coast. With many areas — New Orleans chiefly among them — still reeling from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina seven years ago, residents and public officials are stressing preparation before the storm strikes, bringing the potential for storm surge of up to 12 feet and up to 20 inches of rain, according to the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

The AP video above shows how some are getting ready, which must be welcome news to New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who earlier today stressed that people shouldn’t be relieved that the storm is only a category one hurricane. “Do not let this storm lull you into complacency,” said Landrieu. “That would be a terrible mistake.”

One look at the storm’s size should make anyone think twice about taking this lightly.

This was taken by NASA this morning at 10:25 am.

On Twitter, FEMA noted that “FEMA mobile communications units are in Alabama & Mississippi to support #Isaac response efforts of state/local emergency managers” and CNN’s Soledad O’Brien sent out the below image of some Caterpillars “Building a road–last minute- for vehicles to drive over the makeshift levee.”

And, of course, it isn’t just the locals who are battening down the proverbial hatches.

Insurance companies are also making preparations, and some, including the Citizen Property Insurance Corporation, have already received claims from the storm hitting the Florida coast.

The storm leaves insurance companies with $36 billion in potential exposure to residential property, according to CoreLogic. And with New Orleans estimated to be the most expensive of major metro areas to feel the impact of Isaac, CoreLogic estimates the city could feel the affects of $30.44 billion in property damage due to storm surge.

In an interview with Insurance Networking News, Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, said he is confident insurers are prepared.  “…the industry’s claims-paying capacity stands at record-levels, given the relatively few [catastrophe] losses suffered so far in 2012 – $9 billion for tornadoes and thunderstorms this year pales in comparison to the $26 billion incurred last year,” he said.

Some insurance companies, like Allstate, have reduced its homeowners’ exposure in Louisiana since Katrina hit in 2005. According to the Chicago Tribune, Allstate has been hiking rates and reducing exposure in vulnerable areas nationwide.

Hurricane Katrina – the most catastrophic hurricane in U.S. history – caused a total of $46.6 billion in property damage covered by private insurers and $16.1 billion in flood loss. So as Isaac approaches, insurance companies are encouraging policyholders to check their policies and make sure they have adequate coverage.

For the latest developments in New Orleans, you can stay tuned to the live feed of the local Fox affiliate.

Insurance Claims from Colorado Wildfires at $450 Million and Growing

The residents of Colorado have had a rough 2012. In April it was announced that 98% of the state was facing drought conditions, which raised crop prices and, even worse, set the stage for what would become one of the worst wildfires in Colorado history.

The High Park Fire in Larimer County and the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado Springs have caused insured damage of $450 million with expectations that the number will grow significantly since the claims process has just begun. This figure is double the $224 million logged during the Fourmile fire west of Boulder in 2010, which was considered the state’s most costly. As of July 3rd, all but two Colorado counties had been deemed disaster areas.

Here is a video of the situation just two weeks ago:

Surprisingly, 2012 (so far) is not the worst wildfire year we’ve seen. The Insurance Information Institute states:

There have been 28,912 wildfires that burned 2.3 million acres in 2012, as of July 4, according to the National Interagency Fire Service. This compares with 37,326 wildfires that burned 4.9 million acres during the same period in 2011, and 30,354 wildfires that burned 1.5 million acres during the same period in 2010.

The same cannot be said for the nation’s drought — it is the worst in half a century. The Washington Post has uploaded close to 20 sad and startling photos of the drought of 2012. Take a look. It’s worth your time.

Almost One Billion People in Cities Across the Globe Are Exposed to Natural Disaster Risk

There are 450 urban areas on the planet with a population of least one million people, according to the United Nations. In total, these are the areas where 1.

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4 billion people live. And a whopping 890 million of them are at risk from natural disasters across the world.

“Major cities in Europe and Africa are the least exposed overall,” states a recent U.N. report on urbanization. “Only 26 percent and 37 percent of their cities with one million inhabitants or more are living in regions exposed to at least one major risk of natural disaster. However, cities in Latin America and the Caribbean, in Northern America, and especially in Asia are often located in regions exposed to natural hazards.

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We spend a lot of time discussing how people across the globe are now at a greater risk to natural disasters than ever before. There are many causes. Climate change gets a lot of press, as it should. But urbanization is the largest culprit.

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As we increasingly cluster together into small spaces, the tragedy becomes that much worse whenever a disaster does strike. And since economic, as well as personal, reasons mean that we tend to gather on the coastlines, it is no surprise that more than 60% of the world’s urban population is at risk.

(h/t Risk Market News)