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The Biggest Geopolitical Risks of 2012

The Eurasia Group has unveiled its Top Risks of 2012 list of greatest geopolitical threats the world will face in the next 12 months. Each year, this is an indispensable resource for anyone tasked with managing risk or just interested in global affairs.

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Once again this year, their top ten list is a must read, but I personally find their “red herrings” list to be even more fascinating — and unexpectedly entertaining.

In addition to Top Risks, Bremmer and Gordon identify four Red Herrings, issues that despite the headlines, Eurasia Group believes will not be sources of geopolitical instability in 2012.

2012 political transitions — In addition to elections this year in Mexico, Venezuela, Kenya, Taiwan and (maybe) Egypt, 2012 will see political transitions in the US, China, Russia, and France, countries that together represent about nearly half of global GDP and four-fifths of the UN security council. Yet there is surprising little at stake here for geopolitics and the global economy. Whatever risks come with these outcomes will arrive in 2013 or beyond.

Eurozone breakup — probably the single most overrated risk of 2012, the political will to maintain the eurozone remains strong among all the major political parties in the core eurozone states, almost across the board in the European periphery, and among eurocrats in the ever-growing European bureaucracy. Further, there is no effective political mechanism for a eurozone breakup.

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China’s hard landing — There are signs of overheated growth in China, but there’s no chance that the government will fail to pull out every stop to prevent a meltdown—or even a serious bump—especially in the middle of a major political transition.

Mayan apocalypse — Just isn’t happening. And if it does, well, sorry.

You heard it here first: the world will not end in 2012.

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Feds Propose New Capital Requirement Rules

Late yesterday, the Federal Reserve proposed rules requiring the nation’s largest banks to hold more capital and to keep it more easily accessible. This is one effort on their part to prevent another financial crisis. Tough specific details are still forthcoming, the requirements are seen as less strict than those put forth for international banks — allowing American banks to breathe a sigh of relief.

In a 173-page proposal that tied to the Dodd-Frank regulatory law passed last year, the Fed also proposed the first formal limits on the amount of credit exposure that a bank holding company can have to any major borrower be it another bank or corporation.

The goal is to prevent one bank from being susceptible to failure because of a relationship with another large institution. The lack of a cash cushion in the 2008 financial crisis caused many firms to try to rapidly unwind transactions that had troubled institutions on the other side of them, worsening a partner’s troubles and accelerating the market’s crash.

One of the more important parts of the 173-page proposal is a provision that requires large banks to have a “stand-alone risk committee of the board” that works alongside the chief risk officer to handle company-wide risk management — a big step for in the right direction for the discipline.

 

Extreme Risks of Reality TV Shows — Are They Insurable?

Fear Factor, Wipe Out, Survivor and even The Biggest Loser are all shows that put contestants at risk. And in order to gain viewers’ attention (and ratings to keep advertisers happy), reality shows are constantly trying to one-up each other while in turn increasing their risk. So how do these shows get away with it? Who would insure such insane acts? How do producers make sure they’re covered in case of an injury or death? To answer these questions, I turned to Lorrie McNaught, reality TV expert with Aon/Albert G. Ruben.

What types of reality shows spur the most insurance claims?
LM: Many times it’s more of the “walk and talk” shows as opposed to those with stunts that spur the most claims. Audience members are often hurt while being moved in and out of the auditorium.

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With stunt-laden productions, producers and networks are extremely cautious, and often will hire outside loss control professionals to ensure safety protocol is at its best.

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Every precaution is taken to make sure the stunts are dangerous looking, but not TOO dangerous to perform. As walk-and-talk programming seems so simple, sometimes safety hazards are overlooked.

Are any stunts or activities uninsurable?
LM: The quick answer is no, with the exception of intentional acts; the right broker can find a quote for anything a producer wants to do.

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Usually it comes down to pricing, and how much they have in the budget for insurance. The right broker doesn’t hear the word “no” from insurers. They find a way to get coverage.

How are contestants insured? Or are they?
LM: There are many ways that producers look at mitigating their risks when it comes to contestant injuries. Many times, it will depend on requirements from the networks, and how much they are allocated for insurance. But most, if not all, production companies have participants/contestants sign liability releases, which hold them harmless in the event of injury to the participant while they are filming the show. Production companies have a general liability policy, which would protect them from bodily injury claims, in the event a contestant decided to file a suit. There are other ways that production companies can provide coverage, including accident medical policies and short-term disability. These might be an option for production companies who wish to offer some type of coverage for the participants if they are hurt, while helping to keep their GL policies claims free.

What keeps show producers and risk experts up at night?
LM: Concerns that they might not be able to film the production the way they want to. And, if insurance is the reason that things are held up, that is a huge problem. As an experienced broker, you get to the point where you can almost proactively imagine what the production companies may want to do on a certain show, and you can go to the marketplace and request quotes for various options to present to the producer. That way, they have some options up front, and can create a budget that will allow them to do the shoot they want to, since they’ve been able to plan for it.

What is the biggest mistake producers can make when choosing their insurance programs?
LM: Picking a broker who has little experience and is unable to get the producers the coverage and pricing they need to get their production made.

What should producers be aware of in their agreements with the networks?
LM: The networks all require indemnification from the producers. Sometimes the networks will require the producers to also use the networks’ own insurance program. At the point an uncovered or under-covered claim happens, it could leave a producer bare of coverage, but still forced to indemnify the network. A producer should always carry their own insurance as well, to protect themselves at all times.