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The Elusive NYC Hurricane

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Well, maybe it’s not so elusive after all.

All estimates have the projected path of Hurricane Irene heading straight for the most populated city in the nation. Just this morning, AccuWeather.com‘s Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, predicted that the storm “is now on a path that could take it dangerously close to, if not over, the mid-Atlantic coastline and New York City on Sunday, posing a serious danger to millions of people.”

Following the almost-imminent brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the storm will come extremely close to or directly over New York City. In preparation, the city’s Department of Environmental Protection is lowering the water level in some of its upstate reservoirs to make room for storm runoff while Mayor Bloomberg is urging residents to prepare for the worst. (Good risk management, Mike B!).

As The Wall Street Journal reports:

The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows a direct landfall on New York City of a Category 2 Irene, an outcome that would be likely to push a significant storm surge up the Hudson River and raise the level of New York Harbor by 10 to 15 feet. This would truly be a historic blow to the city should it come to pass.

Though it is necessary to prepare for the worst when it comes to any natural disaster, we must keep in mind that forecast error for hurricane projections this far in advance averages about 150 to 200 miles.

The NYC Office of Emergency Management lists 1999’s Tropical Storm Floyd as the last storm affect the area. It brought flash flooding that caused NYC schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters. But the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit NYC was the “Long Island Express” in 1938. The category 3 hurricane crossed over Long Island and into New England, killing nearly 200 people — 10 of those in NYC. The storm knocked out power in all areas above 59th street and in all areas of the Bronx.

Here’s is an amazing (and somewhat horrifying if you live in NYC as most of our staff does) video by the History Channel of what could happen if the 1938 hurricane made landfall here today.

The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System

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I’m a sucker for shows about disasters. “Mega Disasters” on the History Channel might be my favorite show. (With the one about the Yellowstone “Supervolcano” being my favorite.

Recently, I was watching another program in this genre, “Earth Under Water,” on Nat Geo. I’m not sure if this is a series or just a one-off, but it is pretty fascinating. It predictably discusses the coming climate change sea-level rise with the subtext being that we’re all pretty much, no pun intended, up the river without a paddle on this one. And if you live on the coast? Just move inland now.

Scientific sensationalism and wild prognostications aside, there was also a lot of great information. Watch the video segment taken from the show below for instance. Here, they discuss the New Orleans Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, an ongoing $15 billion project that has, predictably, proven contentious of late.

East Coast Has Time to Prepare for Hurricane Irene, “But We Don’t Have Forever.” Start Getting Ready.

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Hurricane Irene battered the Caribbean and may now have its sights set on the Mid-Atlantic. It’s still to early to accurately forecast the storms trajectory, but FEMA is urging the entire East Coast to prepare.

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After lashing the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas, Irene is projected to skirt Florida and instead hit the Carolina coast by the weekend, but Craig Fugate, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said Irene’s exact path cannot be predicted this far out.

The storm, he said, will affect a large area.

“People think hurricanes are a Southern thing but people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast need to take Irene seriously,” Fugate said.

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“We have a lot of time for people to get ready but we don’t have forever.”

Last year around this time, there was much made of the damage Hurricane Earl might do well north of the traditional hurricane-exposed region of the country. Then it came and went without any fury to speak of.

That non-event will likely cloud the minds of some who will expect the same result. Hopefully, nothing disastrous will happen. But eventually a storm will make it up to the Northeast. We don’t know when. And that’s why you have to prepare for each as if it may.

Here’s a good article on how to keep track of the storm’s path.

State Liability Cap Leaves Lawyers Looking for Damages Elsewhere Following the Seventh Death from the Indiana State Fair Stage Collapse

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The Indiana State Fair stage collapse last week has now claimed a seventh victim. Meagan Toothman, a 24-year-old cheerleading coach from Cincinnati, will be taken off life support later today after doctors remove her organs in “a surgery that will provide gifts of sight, health, and life to dozens who are in need,” according to a statement from her family.

The event will forever serve as a reminder of just how bad things can go when organizers do not put safety at a premium. And now because Indiana state law caps damages that it can incur, it is also likely to also become an example of wide-ranging lawsuits filed against all those involved in a tragedy.

Reports Property Casualty 360:

The Indianapolis Business Journal reported that Indiana law limits individual damage claims against the state to $700,000 and overall claims to $5 million per event.

Legal experts said that could result in several other entities aside from the state fair becoming targets of negligence lawsuits, including the designer and builder of the stage and the promoter of the Sugarland concert.

“I think there will probably be a large number of defendants listed, just because there’s a limited pot of money,” attorney Tom Schultz said.

Based upon the reported instances of shoddy management we have heard (the stage likely was never inspected, the were no storm warnings relayed to concertgoers and one meteorologist’s advice to cancel the fair was ignored), there are likely a lot of people to blame.

And it sounds like there are several plaintiff attorneys ready to find damage over and above the $5 million limit.

Dan Chamberlain, a partner at the Indianapolis personal-injury firm of Doehrman Chamberlain, said his firm could sue on behalf of one victim within the next week.

“You’ve got 50 people injured, five who have been killed, and you’ve got $5 million in coverage,” Chamberlain said. “It’s nowhere close to fairly and adequately compensating the families.”

In addition to any potential challenges to the $5 million cap that lawyers will file, there is also a case that may challenge the legality of Indiana’s same-sex marriage law.