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The Global Stock Sell-Off and Risk Management

Stocks have been clobbered worldwide over the past week. Yesterday, the Dow fell 4.3% in trading on its worst day since 2008, erasing all the gains it had struggled to make so far in 2011. Worse still, Bloomberg has reported that “more than $4.5 trillion has been erased from the value of equities worldwide since July 26.”

UK trading on Friday just closed with the FTSE 100 plummeting another 2.7%, dampening hopes that U.S. markets might rally before the weekend following some relatively positive news on unemployment. (Only 9.1% of people actively looking for jobs now can’t find employment can’t find any instead of 9.2%. YAY.)

All these numbers are brutal. You know things are bad when you go to the homepage of the Wall Street Journal and see it littered with words and phrases like “global rout,” “turmoil,” “volatile,” “heavy losses,” “weakens,” “stalls,” “Be Prepared for More Losses” and, my personal favorite, “An Absolute Bloodbath.”

Many are claiming this is just a market correction.

Stocks were artificially high and the combination of the ongoing debt crisis (something perhaps poised to worsen in September) and whatever it was that just happened in Washington over the past month spooked investors enough to force the markets back down to where they should be.

At this point, I think that’s what everyone is hoping for. If this is just a one-week bath for the markets and normalcy returns, no one will be thrilled, but it will be just a singular beating.

“Curious Capitalist” Michael Schuman worries things might be much scarier, however.

Why are markets tanking? In my opinion, the only thing surprising about the selloff is that some people seem to be surprised by it. The ascent of stock prices earlier this year, especially in the U.S., was detached from the reality of the world economy. Investors seemed to be simply ignoring the constant drumbeat of bad news. Growth in the U.S. has been weaker than expected, unemployment remains stubbornly high and the housing crisis is far from over. The euro zone debt debacle is intensifying, with giants Italy and Spain increasingly under pressure. Inflation has forced emerging markets like China and India to slow down their overheating economies. Oil and food prices, while no longer rising rapidly, are still at elevated levels, eating into consumption spending around the world. The optimism at the beginning of the year about the strength of the recovery was way overblown. We are still suffering from the fallout from the Great Recession. Investors were in denial about the obvious risks. Not anymore. Stock markets are supposed to be forward indicators; today investors are just playing catch up.

Schuman goes on, explaining what he sees as the impetus for the next major global economic meltdown: debt in the European Union.

as the euro zone debt crisis grows in size, we should be asking if European sovereign debt is the ticking time bomb. Greece may not be Lehman but crises in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy could add up to something just as scary as the 2008 Wall Street meltdown, with sovereign bonds playing the lethal role of subprime securities.

Uncertainty is the enemy of risk management.

And we have spent the past decade learning the harsh lesson that it is only increasing. The relative calm of the industrial era is gone and chaos is the new normal. Markets, technology, natural disasters and regional disruptions, among others things, all seem increasingly unpredictable insofar as how they affect the global business world.

Who knows if what Scuman is suggesting could happen actually will? Analysts have been both under- and over-estimating the euro zone debt crisis all year.

But at this point, even if that isn’t what throws the next major wrench into your operating plans, something else likely will.

Risk managers who want to actually help their organizations navigate the ever-present minefield of uncertainty need to realize that there is always going to be something entirely unexpected around the corner. Continue to plan for the foreseeable, but also realize that an increasingly important aspect of your profession is reacting to things that you never saw coming.

July/August Issue of Risk Management Now Online

Faithful readers: the June issue of Risk Management magazine is now online. The cover story focuses on how rating agencies gained so much power, helped tank the economy and figure into the future of risk management. Other features explore a possible turn in the property/casualty insurance market cycle and Risk Management‘s 7th annual captive domicile review.

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Lloyd’s Could Lose $15 Million from Tour Cancellation

Lead singer and vocalist Caleb Followill -- exhaustion or alcohol?

When the band Kings of Leon scheduled their international tour, they covered the far flung possibility of event cancellation with Lloyd’s of London, taking out a $15 million policy, according to Rolling Stone. And now, Lloyd’s may have to pay up.

At a Dallas, Texas, show just a few days ago, lead singer Caleb Followill announced mid-concert that he could not finish the show. In his own words, he was drunk and needed to leave to stage. The rest of the band members (consisting of two brothers and one cousin) apologized to the booing crowd. But those weren’t the only people to be upset and maddened by the lead singer’s actions.

Three days later the band cancelled their remaining 29-city American tour, citing Followill’s “vocal issues and exhaustion,” though it had been long rumored that he struggled with a serious drinking problem. And his bandmate’s statement on Twitter that read “I can’t lie. There are problems in our band bigger than not drinking enough Gatorade” did not help quell suspicions. From PropertyCasualty360.com:

“If he is truly sick, he’ll probably need a doctor to medically diagnose him,” says Paul Bassman, president of Doodson Insurance brokerage, the U.S. arm of U.K.-based Doodson Broking Group.

Though this is the most recent case of event cancellation, it is most definitely not the only instance. Big-name artists such as Mariah Carey, Britney Spears and Billy Joel have cancelled all or some of their tours due to various excuses, whether true or false. And in June, Lloyd’s filed a lawsuit requesting to nullify a policy it had with promoters of Michael Jackson’s canceled comeback tour.

Taking steps to insure an event or tour is a smart move for artists and promoters, but a sometimes risky and costly one for insurers.

For more on concert and festival risk, check out the June issue of Risk Management.

When Working From Home Turns Deadly

Cathleen Renner had a desk job that resulted in an inactive lifestyle (I think most of us can relate). After 25 years with AT&T, however, the obese Renner died of a blood clot right there at her desk after a 10-hour work shift at her home office. Even more unusual, a New Jersey appellate court ruled that Renner’s husband was entitled to workers compensation benefits. How?

AT&T contended that Renner’s work was no more a threat to her health than her day-to-day lifestyle, the ruling states. The company also said many factors besides her work contributed to her death. A lawyer for AT&T did not return a message seeking comment. Dr. Leon Waller, who testified on behalf of the 47-year-old Renner, acknowledged the mother of three had other risk factors like obesity and the use of birth control pills, the ruling states. But Waller found that Renner’s clot developed while she was working.

The court found that although Renner led a sedentary life both inside and outside of work, evidence showed that her work inactivity was greater than her non-work inactivity.

This is a first of its kind for workers comp cases. But will it have an effect on on future workers comp cases of the same nature? “I could see another judge with those same factual circumstances deciding otherwise,” said Gerald Rotella, chairman of the workers’ compensation committee for the New Jersey State Bar Association.

Working from home has become popular in today’s workforce; it boosts employee morale, cuts down transportation costs and in some instances, increases employee productivity as a result of diminished distractions. But what happens when an employee takes on too much without the supervision of a manager? Though a lethal outcome is rare, other health risks could easily surface.

How do you keep an eye on those working from home?