Operational Risk Management and Business Performance

In the video below from Mash Risk Television, Brian Barnier of ValueBridge Investors discusses the difficulty that organizations, specifically financial firms, have in moving from compliance-based view of risk to an operational-based view.

It’s an understandable hurdle considering how many companies only started thinking about some of this stuff systematically as a result of Basel II or Sarbanes-Oxley and thus view the whole endeavor as little more than a useless burden to check off a series of boxes. Organizations just don’t see the value. Even in 2011, after the largest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, too many companies still can’t find the tangible, bottom-line benefits of instituting a worthwhile risk management system that views meeting regulatory requirements as a starting point rather than an end goal. Which is a shame.

Because as Barnier gets at in the video, those companies that can’t start thinking about risk management as a key driver in overall performance are probably going to find themselves behind the curve pretty soon. Plenty of other companies are already doing it — and in the process, fortifying their earnings against potential threats.

The Psychological Hurdle to Earthquake Preparedness

The final death toll from the earthquake and resulting tsunami in Japan is now expected to exceed 18,000. While that number paints a far graver picture than the initial, much lower estimates, many believe that the human fallout from a magnitude 9.0 quake would have been worse if it wasn’t for the country’s strict building codes.

In that sense, Japan’s path towards resiliency should be a lesson to other nations threatened by seismic activity. Either modernize and fortify your construction and infrastructure or jeopardize the lives of your citizens when the next major earthquake hits.

Unfortunately, improved building standards are not the only impediment to better preparedness. A new study from a University College London researcher Helene Joffe has shown that there are some significant psychological hurdles as well — and the underlying rationale may vary from culture to culture.

In Japan, for example, responses to her survey about how safe people would feel if an earthquake hit revealed a fatalistic outlook, meaning that many people didn’t believe that improved building standards — or any other preparedness efforts, really — would ultimately make any difference.

Japanese participants, while being the most confident in the structural integrity of their buildings, had a more negative response than those in the US when asked “How safe would you feel being inside your house during an earthquake?” The Japanese also scored lowest on the number of seismic adjustments they had made: an average of seven, compared with nine in the US. Joffe says there was far more talk of worry, anxiety, fear and a sense of vulnerability from Japanese respondents, while those in the US had a much greater feeling of optimism.

Japanese participants gave the impression that damage is caused by the force of an earthquake alone rather than arising as the result of interactions between uncontrollable geophysical events and controllable features of the built environment, says Joffe. “We found the Japanese participants to be more fatalistic than we expected,” she says. “The feeling was that you can do whatever to your house but what is going to happen is going to happen and there is very little you can do to change that.”

Other survey participants came from Turkey, another nation with high seismic risks. Here, too, people had a “there’s nothing you can do” attitude, something that was skewed both by religion and a distrust of government.

In Turkey, there was much more talk of earthquakes being an act of God. There was also much more talk of distrust in government and corruption. “They thought that their buildings were badly built and that there was nothing they could do to prepare because everything was negatively affected by corruption,” says Joffe.

We already know that there many hurdles to better disaster preparedness: budget constraints, complacency, a lack of urgency and an “it won’t happen to me” attitude, to name just a few. But according to Joffe, this new information means that policymakers must also begin to incorporate cultural understanding into their efforts.

Joffe’s team says the current models of seismic adjustment need to give a more prominent role to these cultural influences. They will use their results to identify how best to motivate people to make changes.

“If we find that fatalism is leading the Japanese not to make necessary adjustments, then it may be better to go in on the engineering side and retrofit their houses,” she says. “In Turkey, on the other hand, you’re not going to change vulnerability without starting with corruption.”

For more on the other psychological hurdles, read this excellent piece that FM Global’s Ruud Bosman wrote for us recently highlighting research that his company conducted.

Initial Estimates of Claims from Japan Quake

Though it is far too early to pin down an exact number for the amount of money the Japan quake will cost insurers, initial estimates have started to surface for some of the hardest hit insurers and reinsurers.

Swiss Re, the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, has estimated it will face claims of about $1.2 billion from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

The figure is low because Japan’s government insures residential properties covered by non-life companies against earthquake and tsunami damage and this protection is not reinsured internationally, the Zurich-based company said in an e-mailed statement today. The preliminary claims figure is net of retrocession and before tax, Swiss Re said.

Eqecat, a catastrophe modeling firm, has stated that insurers and reinsurers will likely have losses of $12 billion to $25 billion. However, AIR Wolrdwide has estimated losses of up to $35 billion from the quake alone.

AIG has recently reported that it will record $1 billion in claims for the first quarter, most of which can be attributed to the Japan earthquake and tsunami.

Zurich-based ACE Ltd., a major player in the insurance and reinsurance market, said its initial loss estimates are $200 million to $250 million.

Though Lloyd’s of London has not officially released an estimate, an anonymous market source has said “$3 billion in losses for the Lloyd’s market as a whole sounds plausible.”

QBE Insurance Group Ltd. of Australia has said it estimates $125 million in claims from the quake and tsunami.

Below is a video of the always-entertaining Joe Plumeri speaking on the topic of Japan’s insured losses.

You’re watching Willis’s Plumeri Says Japan Insured Losses Still Unknown. See the Web’s top videos on AOL Video

The Cost of a Data Breach

Six years ago, The Ponemon Institute conducted its first “Cost of a Data Breach” study in the United States. Since then, the independent research firm has expanded into the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Australia. This most recent study focuses on actual data breach experiences of 51 U.S. companies from 15 different industry sectors.

The results of Ponemon’s 2010 study, which were released this month, find that:

  • For the first time, malicious or criminal attacks are the most expensive cause of data breaches and not the least common one
  • Organizations are more proactively protecting themselves from malicious attacks
  • Companies’ investments in finding and remediating data breaches may be paying off
  • For the third straight year, direct costs accounted for a larger proportion of overall data breach costs

Other important findings include: more organizations favor rapid response to data breaches, and that is costing them greatly; for the fifth year in a row, data breach costs have continued to rise (the average cost of a data breach in 2010 increased to $7.2million, up 7% from $6.8million in 2009); breaches by third-party outsourcers are becoming slightly less common but much more expensive; more companies had better-than-average security postures, and those organizations enjoyed much lower data breach costs.

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The report points to popular and effective technologies that are currently available to secure data both within an organization and among business partners.

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They include:

  • Encryption (including whole disk encryption and for mobile devices/smartphones)
  • Data loss prevention (DLP) solutions
  • Identity and access management solutions
  • Endpoint security solutions and other anti-malware tools