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Almost 900,000 Homes at High Risk of Wildfires, CoreLogic Reports

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Despite extensive, persistent drought in the western United States, 2014 saw notably low numbers of wildfire incidents, both for total number of fires and acreage burned. According to CoreLogic, there were 63,345 wildfires in 2014, which ranks second only to 2013 as the lowest annual number of wildfires over the past 20 years. In comparison with 2013, which was the second lowest annual total acreage burned in the past 10 years, the 2014 season saw even lower numbers, with 3,587,561 acres burned by wildfires.

More intensive response to small fires and ignitions, increased overwinter snowpack and timely precipitation during wildfire season, and greater efforts to boost public awareness and homeowner mitigation efforts have all contributed to more effective control over wildfires, the company pointed out. But responding agencies, homeowners and insurers should not allow the decline to translate into a sense of security.

“Even though we haven’t seen the type of wildfire activity over the last few years that seemed to be thematic in the 2000s, there have been record setting wildfire events even during the recent periods of overall reduced wildfire numbers,” the report said.

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“With continuing residential growth in the West, the opportunity for fires to find homes and businesses is going to increase as well. This is why it has never been more important to know where wildfire risk is located and understand the likelihood of it occurring.

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Across the western states, the highest risk areas can be found:

Western US Wildfire Risk

Based on CoreLogic wildfire analysis, there are 897,102 residential properties in the region that are currently located in High or Very High wildfire-risk categories, with a reconstruction value of more than $237 billion. In the Very High risk category alone, there are just over 192,000 residences with a reconstruction value of more than $49 billion. “Taking into consideration the combination of risk factors both inside and outside the property boundary to assess numeric risk score, more than 1.

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1 million homes in the U.S. with a total reconstruction value of more than $268 billion fall into the highest wildfire risk segment of 81-100. This total is more than five times the number of homes that fall under the Very High risk category,” CoreLogic reported.

The company also broke down the statewide totals for potential exposure to wildfire damage, in reconstruction value per risk category:

CoreLogic: Total Potential Exposure (Reconstruction Value) to Wildfire Damage by Risk Category

Check out the full report for more details on the risks of wildfire damage.

The World’s Most Resilient Cities

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Toronto most resilient city

How do you invest, source and expand responsibly?

Picking the right place to do so may make or break your efforts. At least, that’s the theory of London-based property company Grosvenor. With that in mind, the company analyzed 160 data sets to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the world’s “50 most important cities” to determine which are the most resilient, with resilience defined as “the ability of cities to continue to function as centers of production, human habitation, and cultural development despite the challenges posed by climate change, population growth, declining resource supply, and other paradigm shifts.”

Grosvenor first measured vulnerability by looking at climate threats, environmental degradation (including pollution and overconsumption due to sprawl), resources, infrastructure and community cohesion. For the next half of the equation, according to the Guardian, “Adaptive capacity, or a city’s ability to prevent and mitigate serious threats, was a combination of governance (high value here on democracy, freedom of speech, community participation, transparency, accountability and long-term leadership vision), strong institutions, learning capacity (including good technical universities), disaster planner and finally funding (from budget to credit and access to global funding).”

Of particular note, eight of the weakest 20 cities are in BRIC countries, and some of the cities where population and industry growth are waiting to boom may pose the greatest risks.

New Climate Change Report Highlights Risk Management Strategies

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Global Warming

This week, a new report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change summarized the ways climate change is already impacting individuals and ecosystems worldwide and strongly cautioned that conditions are getting worse. Focusing on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, the panel’s latest work offers insight on economic loss and prospective supply chain interruptions that should be of particular note for risk managers—and repeatedly highlights principles of the discipline as critical approaches going forward.

Key risks the report identified with high confidence, span sectors and regions include:

i. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.

ii. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.

iii. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.

iv. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.

v. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.

vi. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.

vii. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.

viii. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.

The report highlights more sector-specific risks, and one table even highlight the panel’s perception of the role of risk management in the future of climate change policy and planning:

IPCC Chart

On the whole, the report lays out many familiar risk management approaches and how they can be best applied to evaluating the risks of climate change and how to mitigate them. Perhaps the environment is warming to risk-informed decision-making as well.

Widening Wealth Gap Is Biggest Global Risk, World Economic Forum Predicts

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Wealth Disparity

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2014 report, the chronic gap between the incomes of the richest and poorest citizens is the risk most likely to cause serious global damage in the next decade. Looking forward, the 700 experts queried emphasized that the next generation will only feel this disparity more acutely if current conditions continue. Those presently coming of age face “twin challenges” of reduced employment opportunity and rising education costs, prompting the World Economic Forum to consider the impact on political and social stability as well as economic development.

“Many young people today face an uphill battle,” explained David Cole, group chief risk officer of Swiss Re. “As a result of the financial crisis and globalization, the younger generation in the mature markets struggle with ever fewer job opportunities and the need to support an aging population. While in the emerging markets there are more jobs to be had, the workforce does not yet possess the broad based skill-sets necessary to satisfy demand. It’s vital we sit down with young people now and begin planning solutions aimed at creating fit-for-purpose educational systems, functional job-markets, efficient skills exchanges and the sustainable future we all depend on.”

After a widening global wealth gap, experts predicted that extreme weather events will be the global risk next most likely to cause systemic shock on a global scale. They identified fiscal crises as the global risk with the potential to have the biggest impact over the next 10 years.

The top five most likely and most potentially impactful global risks are:

Most Likely Risks

1. Income disparity (societal risk)

2. Extreme weather events (environmental risk)

3. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

4. Climate change (environmental risk)

5. Cyberattacks (technological risk)

 

Most Potentially Impactful Risks

1. Fiscal crises (economic risk)

2. Climate change (environmental risk)

3. Water crises (environmental risk)

4. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

5. Critical information infrastructure breakdown(technological risk)