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P&C Rates Drop 2% in May

The rate index for property and casualty risks was down 2% in May, the same as was seen in April, MarketScout reported.

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Accounts of more than $250,000 were priced more aggressively in May, at minus 3% compared to minus 2% in April.

“The market was stable in May with small movements in coverage, industry, and size classifications,” MarketScout CEO Richard Kerr said. “As we have seen in the past, larger premium accounts were priced more aggressively. Overall, the composite rate was down 2% in May, matching the rate for April.”

Acct size

According to the Insurance Information Institute:

A dominant factor in the P/C insurance cycle is intense competition within the industry. Premium rates drop as insurance companies compete vigorously to increase market share. As the market softens to the point that profits diminish or vanish completely, the capital needed to underwrite new business is depleted.

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In the up phase of the cycle, competition is less intense, underwriting standards become more stringent, the supply of insurance is limited due to the depletion of capital and, as a result, premiums rise. The prospect of higher profits draws more capital into the marketplace, leading to more competition and the inevitable down phase of the cycle.

By coverage classification, rates for property, business interruption, professional, auto, directors and officers, and surety all moderated 1% compared to April. Crime coverage increased from flat to plus 1%.

Coverage class

Industry classifications are examined to determine rate movement as measured when grouping accounts according to their SIC, or Standard Industrial Classification codes, MarketScout said.

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SIC codes are four-digit numerical codes assigned by the U.S. government to business establishments to identify their primary business, according to SICcode.com.

Industry class 3

The SIC codes are then incorporated into seven different segments. The only changes in rates in May versus April were in habitational, which moderated from minus 3% to minus 2%; and energy, which was priced slightly more aggressively at minus 3% compared to minus 2%. All other industry classifications were unchanged compared to April, MarketScout said.

Close of 2015 Sees More Rate Reductions

Insurers’ competition and ongoing fight for market share resulted in a composite rate down 4% in December for the U.S. property and casualty market. But while market cycles are here to stay, the current cycles are tame compared to some previous years.Barometer In 2002, there was a mean average rate increase of 30% and, in 2007, a mean average decrease of 13%, according to MarketScout.

“Market cycles are part of our life, be it insurance, real estate, interest rates or the price of oil. Market cycles are going to occur without question. The only questions are when, how much and how long.” MarketScout CEORichard Kerr said in a statement. “While it may seem the insurance industry has already been in a prolonged soft market cycle, we are only four months in.

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The market certainly feels like it has been soft for much longer, because rates bumped along at flat or plus 1% to 1½% from July 2014 to September 2015.” He pointed out that the technical trigger of a soft market occurs when the composite rate drops below par for three consecutive months.

Rate Trend

MarketScout has been tracking the U.S. property and casualty market since July 2001. Kerr pointed out that during that time, the length and veracity of the market cycles has become less volatile in the last five or six years. “Thus, the impact of a hard or soft market in today’s environment may be 5% or 6% up or down,” he said. “Can you imagine how we would react today in a market such as that of July 2002 when the composite rate was up 32%? Or in December 2007 when the composite rate was down 16%? Underwriters today have better tools to price their products and forecast losses. Further, the chances of a rogue underwriter or company are greatly reduced by the industries’ checks and balances. There may be less excitement but there are probably far fewer CEO heart attacks.”

December 2015 rate summary by coverage, industry class and account size:
Coverage1
Industry class2
Account size3

P&C Insurers’ Profitability Up in First Half of 2015

Low catastrophe losses contributed to a rise in net income for property/casualty insurers in the first half of this year, to $31 billion from $26 billion in the first half of 2014, according to ISO, a Verisk Analytics business, and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI). Insurers’ overall profitability, measured by their rate of return on average policyholders’ surplus, grew to 9.2% from 7.8%.

“While Old Man Winter did his best to disrupt things in the Northeast during the first half of 2015, insurers overall incurred lower domestic catastrophe losses than they did during the first half of last year due to a relatively quiet tornado season and the slow start to hurricane season,” Robert Gordon, PCI’s senior vice president for policy development and research, said in a statement. “Insurers’ combined ratio and rate of return all improved in the first half of 2015, while premium growth and investment income remained relatively stable.”

Beth Fitzgerald, president of ISO Solutions noted, “Still, it’s important to note than U.S. catastrophe losses during the first half of 2015 were only slightly lower than the 10-year average. As the devastation caused by meteorological conditions associated with Hurricane Joaquin highlights, it’s crucial for insurers to remain disciplined in their underwriting and look at analytics to be ready not only for weather disasters but also for other major challenges the future may hold.”

According to the report, insurers’ combined ratio improved to 97.6% for first-half 2015 from 98.9% for first-half 2014, and net underwriting gains went to $3.39 billion from $237 million. Net written premium growth remained unchanged at 4.1 percent for the first half of 2014 and 2015.

Also in first-half 2015, earned premiums grew 4.0% to $247.5 billion, while losses and loss adjustment expenses (LLAE) rose just 1.8% to $171.3 billion. Other underwriting expenses rose 4.7% to $71.8 billion, and policyholders’ dividends were mostly unchanged at $1.0 billion. Net underwriting gains increased to $3.4 billion from $0.2 billion.

In second quarter, consolidated net income after taxes for the P&C industry rose to $12.8 billion from $12.1 billion in second-quarter 2014.

P-C_1Q results

P&C insurers’ annualized rate of return on average surplus increased to 7.6% in second-quarter 2015 from 7.3% a year earlier.

Net written premiums rose $5.5 billion, or 4.4%, to $130.6 billion in second-quarter 2015 from $125.1 billion in second-quarter 2014.

Cyber Insurance Purchasing Up, But Breaches Felt in Prices and Limits

NEW YORK—At yesterday’s Advisen Cyber Insights Conference, Zurich and Advisen released the fifth annual Advisen Cyber Survey of U.S. risk managers, finding a 9% acceleration in cyber liability insurance purchasing from 2014 to 2015. The firm has seen a 26% increase in the number of respondents who have coverage since the first survey in 2011.

Companies are taking cyberliability more seriously, Zurich reports, with the number of organizations developing data breach response plans up 10% from last year. What’s more, companies appear to be better recognizing the sheer amount of value at risk, with two-thirds of respondents saying they have either increased their policy limits or are considering doing so. While Zurich found that more organizations view information security as an organizational challenge rather than the purview of the IT department alone, and respondents said that boards and executive management are taking cyberrisk more seriously, those who have not yet obtained cyber coverage say it is because their superiors still do not see the need. There is also still a considerable difference in take-up rates among large corporations and small and mid-sized businesses, with Catherine Mulligan, senior vice president and national underwriting manager of specialty E&O, telling the audience there is an approximate 20-point spread between the groups.

“This year’s cyber survey shows that demand for coverage and higher limits has increased tremendously and we at Zurich have seen double digit growth year over year,” said Bryan Salvatore, president of specialty products for Zurich North America. “That is why we are heavily invested in identifying risks and delivering solutions and why we are committed to staying at the forefront of this issue.”

Marsh has also seen considerable growth in cyber liability insurance purchasing among its clients. According to the insurer’s new midyear cyber benchmarking report, the number of U.S.-based Marsh clients purchasing standalone cyber insurance increased 32% in the first half of 2015, up from 26% growth during this period in 2014. By sector, members of the education industry made up the biggest growth, with 155% more clients purchasing the coverage, followed by power and utilities with a 100% increase and manufacturing with a 76% increase. The healthcare sector remains Marsh’s largest buyer of cyber coverage, with 41% of all clients in this industry purchasing it by the end of the first half of 2015.

Cyber liability insurance growth rates

Sessions throughout the conference made clear that insurers—and the industry at large—are still struggling with what is also risk managers’ biggest challenge: data. Completely evaluating the true value at risk with cyber liability continues to elude both sides, although many new approaches and consultancy services are emerging. Further, the dearth of actuarial data not only compounds the challenges of the cyberrisk assessment process, but make it hard for the industry to set pricing and limits with confidence.

“It is hard for insurers to be prudent with cyber as risk managers often do not fully understand how to measure their exposure,” Mulligan said.

“Actuarial data is the Holy Grail of the cyberinsurance market: we’re all searching for it and it’s just not there,” said Bob Parisi, cyber product leader at Marsh, who moderated a session on the struggle to quantify and model cyberrisk.

In addition to the actuarial uncertainty, the considerable number of large losses over the past few years is continuing to push up the cost of cyber, forming what Willis executive vice president Peter Foster described as a “hot” market that will have to cool and solidify with time. Parisi chose to describe the market as “brittle” after absorbing several hundred million dollars in losses, and a range of insurers and brokers reported that premiums have increased dramatically as a result. The Marsh study found that price increases across industries averaged 19%, with 32% increases among retailers, the most frequently breached sector over the past few years.

cyber insurance limits purchased

While these breaches and better estimates of the real cost of cyber incidents have helped many companies realize they may be underinsuring for cyber liability, the move to correct this is getting more difficult. Insurers have said repeatedly that there is plenty of capacity in the cyberinsurance market and many buyers have increased the limits purchased, but higher limits of liability are increasingly hard to come by, and none really exist in excess of $100 million. Particularly for businesses that have yet to implement serious efforts to address information security, rate increases appear sure to continue, and simply buying more coverage will not only be unsustainable, but may not even be possible as insurers give more thought to the capacity they are willing to commit to these risks.

“There is just not enough capacity to extend $50 to $100 million limits to every account,” said Greg Vernaci, AIG’s head of cyber in the United States and Canada. “We are looking to reward those companies with a robust information security posture who go beyond and take a multifaceted approach to managing cyberrisk.”