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Supply Chain Disruption Hits 76% of Businesses a Year

Almost a quarter of businesses reported annual cumulative losses of at least $1.05 million (CAD $1.4 million) due to supply chain disruptions, and 76% of businesses reported at least one instance of supply chain disruption annually, according to a survey conducted by the Business Continuity Institute and Zurich. The top causes of supply chain failure among businesses surveyed were ones that will likely get even more frequent in the coming years: unplanned IT outages, cyberattacks, and adverse weather.

As the supply chain continues to grow ever longer, adding more potentially disruptive risks along the way, businesses are learning some painful lessons about the financial and reputational damages that can result from failures to ensure supply chain resilience.

Check out the infographic below for some Zurich’s top insights on supply chain visibility, including the biggest sources of damage and key steps to mitigate losses:

zurich supply chains infographic

Quantifying Supply Chain Risk

Today, more businesses around the world depend on efficient and resilient global supply chains to drive performance and achieve ongoing success. By quantifying where and how value is generated along the supply chain and overlaying of the array of risks that might cause the most significant disruptions, risk managers will help their businesses determine how to deploy mitigation resources in ways that will deliver the most return in strengthening the resiliency of their supply chains. At the same time, they will gain needed insights to make critical decisions on risk transfer and insurance solutions to protect their companies against the financial consequences of potential disruptions.

As businesses evaluate their supply chain risk and develop strategies for managing it, they might consider using a quantification framework, which can be adapted to any traditional or emerging risk.

  • Begin with a “bricks and mortar” risk assessment. Start with the traditional property business interruption risk, focusing first on exposures related to your company’s owned physical plants and facilities as well as those of critical trading partners.
  • Understand and analyze your global business model, as well as any changes that have been implemented to create efficiencies or as a result of mergers, acquisitions or divestitures. Determine exactly how and where value is created and use this information to identify and assess potential vulnerabilities.
  • Distinguish between volume and value. You may have significant trade volume in dollar terms with one partner that can be easily replaced while the dollar volume of trade with a supplier of a critical raw material, component or ingredient may be small, but difficult and costly to replace.  In this case, the supplier with the least spend could be the one that has the most impact if disrupted.
  • Tie financial impacts to risk of disruption. This will enable your company to establish priorities and allocate resources in dealing with potential exposures.
  • Beginning with your most significant potential exposures, understand what mitigation options are available and compare them to what you already have in place.
  • Quantify your worst-case exposures in terms of maximum foreseeable losses.
  • Know your company’s ability to respond to events and threats, especially those that might affect the most critical elements of your supply chain. Identify specific emerging risks that are likely to have the greatest potential financial consequences, such as: cyber network interruption; political and expropriation risk; infectious disease and pandemic; product liability and recall, as well as other potential exposures.
  • In evaluating various supply chain exposures, leverage findings from the traditional business interruption study conducted earlier in the process. This can help determine how other risks might affect specific operations and individual trading partners and, in turn, cause disruptions along the supply chain. Remember, all business interruption risk resides on your company’s P&L and within your unique business model, regardless of cause.
  • Revisit your business continuity, incident response and crisis management plans in the context of the wider range of potential risks confronting your supply chain and individual trading partners.
  • Quantify worst-case financial exposures.  This will give you the ability to pinpoint how and where to allocate resources to mitigate exposures as well as to set priorities with respect to your risk transfer decisions, including coverages purchased, limits and optimal program structure.

Study Lists Most and Least Resilient Countries

Businesses are more dependent on their supply chains than ever, with supply chain disruption one of the leading causes of business instability. To thrive, companies need to be resilient, and part of that is their location and the location of suppliers. According to FM Global’s 2015 FM Global Resilience Index, Norway tops the list of resilient countries, with Switzerland in second place.

The study’s purpose is to help companies evaluate and manage their supply chain risk by ranking 130 countries and regions in terms of their business resilience to supply chain disruption. Data is based on: economic strength, risk quality (mostly related to natural hazard exposure and risk management) and supply chain factors (including corruption, infrastructure and local supplier quality).

According to the study:

1. Norway retains its top position in the index from last year, with strong results for economic productivity, control of corruption, political risk and resilience to an oil shock. The country’s management of fire risk offers opportunity to improve still further.

2. Despite its massive oil reserves, Venezuela ranks 130, placing it at the bottom of the index, and reflecting the many challenges South America faces, ranging from economic and political to geological, with its west coast on the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’.

3. Taiwan has jumped the most in the index – 52 places in the annual ranking to 37; more than any other country. Its rise is due mainly to a substantial improvement in the country’s commitment to risk management, as it relates both to natural hazard risk and fire risk. Given the country’s location at the western edge of the Philippine Sea plate, this is a welcome development.

4. Ukraine, ranked 107, and Kazakhstan, ranked 102, dropped more places this year than any other country; a fall of 31 places each. Unsurprisingly, for Ukraine, the worsening political risk, combined with poorer infrastructure, was to blame. The fall for Kazakhstan this year reflects a poorer commitment to natural hazard risk management in the region.

5. In the European Union (EU), Greece fell from position 54 to 65. The recent victory of the anti-austerity Syriza party almost certainly will usher in a period of greater friction and turbulence with its EU partners.

6. France, ranked 19, trails Germany at 6, the leading EU nation. France has slid down the index in recent years reflecting a rising risk of terrorism – evidenced tragically in Paris – and deteriorating perceptions of both infrastructure and local suppliers. Also exposed to terrorism risk is the United Kingdom, which nevertheless held steady at 20 for the third year running, aided by its relative resistance to oil shocks.

New to the top 10 this year are Qatar, ranked 7, and Finland, ranked 9. Qatar benefits from its macroeconomic stability, efficient goods and labor markets and high degree of security. The country owes its rise of 8 places to a considerable improvement in commitment to fire risk management in the region. Finland’s strengths derive from its innovative capabilities, a product of high public and private investment in research and development, strong links between academia and private sector companies, and an excellent record in education and training, according to the study.

In 10th place is U.S. Region 3, the central region of the United States. While this part of the country is subject to a variety of natural hazards, there is less exposure than states on the east or west coasts of the country. Belgium, ranked 11, and Australia, ranked 14, dropped out of the top 10–barely–and both countries retain high positions in the 2015 index.

 

 

Fixing a Rotten Global Supply Chain

Something’s rotten in the global supply chain—figuratively and literally, as Shanghai’s Dragon TV revealed in July about a major supplier of meat for the iconic restaurant brands KFC, Pizza Hut and McDonald’s. In recent years various supply chains brought to market, through respected public companies, adulterated products such as drug-infused toxic chickens and horsemeat posing as beef, as well as dangerous products such as salmonella-laced peanut butter and melamine-fortified pet food.

In addition to the restaurant, food retail and agribusiness sectors, problems originating in their supply chains have adversely affected the automotive, electronics, pharmaceutical and toy sectors. GM, for example, is now dealing with what appears to be a 10-year long supply chain problem that compromised product safety. The immediate costs of all this supply chain rot may include business interruption, product recalls and third-party liability claims, but strategic costs may extend to reputational harm, too. With the rise of investor activism, the worst recent additional costs may be the personal reputations of corporate directors and officers.

Three reasons explain the rising costs of supply chain issues. Stakeholders expect that companies know how the products they offer are made, by whom, and with what raw materials. These expectations are not limited to “conscientious capitalists” or NGOs. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, for example, requires companies to disclose annually how they test for whether any minerals originating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or an adjoining country are incorporated in products.

Another fact is that, as companies continue to grow around the world in an increasingly complex sourcing, manufacturing and distribution environment, insurers and their reinsurers are balking at accepting risk. A representative of Zurich, a major insurer of the global supply chain, explained that reinsurers were demanding more transparency into locations as a going-forward condition for blanket limits.

Then, intolerance for errors is growing. Stakeholders, many of whom now have near-instant awareness of errors and a front-row seat to global crises, are becoming less forgiving of companies being blindsided.

Only a short window of time now separates an adverse event from the onset of what the Financial Times once described as “the pile on of litigators, regulators, and…bloggers.” Enter now also activist investors. Despite ample public contrition, Target’s board sacked its CEO only 18 weeks after a supplier provided credit card scanners whose security had been compromised—a sacking that did not prevent activist investors from calling for a sacking of the board. And only 10 weeks after Duke Energy’s coal ash spill and its public contrition, activist investors demanded the heads of four Duke Energy directors.

The court of public opinion where liability insurance offers no solace has become the primary battleground, making directors and officers especially vulnerable. One investor told the New York Times his opening gambit with the C-suite: “We can make you famous, and not for the reason you want to be famous.” Rarely will a company’s C-suite suffer public opprobrium silently like Rolls-Royce’s after a catastrophic engine failure exposed a systemic safety issue in their supply chain.
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The company went radio silent for 10 weeks until it isolated and repaired the problem, whereupon the firm emerged publicly to announce a new large engine order. They used the third-party endorsement of a respected customer to help reassure stakeholders and restore their reputation.

It is high time that companies acquire visibility into their supply chains, and demand from them responsible behavior appropriate for the notably higher 21st century norms. They can begin by evaluating the effectiveness of field audits that evidence compliance. Although that approach is industry-standard, it is expensive and disruptive to their suppliers and expensive to administer. For the overwhelming majority of suppliers and vendors that are in compliance, these audits interfere with their operations and strain the supplier/company relationships. For the few that are non-compliant, infrequent audits are poor policing tools. When audits fail to uncover deviations, and a negative event occurs, social critics have unfairly accused companies of ineffective oversight and even willful failure.

New integrated information management solutions are far more effective. These will help companies find hints and clues of noncompliance in open communications that, aided by big data analytics, converge on apparent discrepancies between self-reporting and actual behaviors. These signatures of misbehavior will more quickly expose potential deviations from responsible behavior and enable corrective actions.

Companies can also reduce irresponsible behavior by making it harder for potentially deviant suppliers to rationalize such behavior and assuage their guilt. Insurances have become available that will objectively affirm the authenticity of a company’s values and neutralize rationalization that might lower the barriers to irresponsible behavior by some suppliers. Insurances can also increase the disincentives for irresponsible behavior in two fundamental ways. First, escalating the behavior into the criminal matter of insurance fraud is a far greater disincentive than a terminated contract. Second, by making insurance a condition of contracting, loss of insurance becomes an independent and non-judgmental basis for termination.

Companies cannot then be vilified for evading responsibility.

Companies that manage risks to their supply chains in a way that stakeholders can appreciate and value can transform risk management into a strategic advantage. These companies will emerge with reputations for being 21st century industry leaders in governance, management and control.