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National Flood Insurance Program Set to Expire

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As a tropical storm battered parts of Texas with more than 40 inches of rain in 72 hours last week, Congress is debating whether to extend the National Flood Insurance Program, which expires on September 30. The NFIP is a government-run flood insurance plan that covers 5 million policies and is an alternative to the relatively shallow private flood insurance market. Since the passage of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Congress has often waited until the last minute to reauthorized the program before its expiration and passed only short-term extensions (12 since 2017).

Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded through November 21 and prevent a government shutdown. This measure included an extension for the NFIP through the same date. But it is unclear whether the Senate will pass the resolution or allow a shutdown.

The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee unanimously passed a bill titled the National Flood Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 (H.R. 3167), which would reauthorize the NFIP for five years and provide funding for flood mapping and flood mitigation programs. It would also mandate a number of reforms, including allowing policyholders to get refunds if they cancel their policy before its expiration date, eliminating penalties if insureds leave the NFIP for the private market, and requiring the NFIP to increase premium rates each year.

On the Senate side, there is a bill of the same name that would also extend the NFIP for five years. The bills would also cap annual rate increases at 9% (as opposed to the current law, which allows increases by up to 25% annually), making the program more affordable, especially for low-income policyholders. Additionally, it includes provisions to protect homebuyers and renters by mandating flood risk and prior flood damage disclosures, and also funds flood mapping modernization and mitigation. As of this writing, the Senate has not voted on the measure.

Climate change has exacerbated annual flooding across the United States, making storms more violent, frequent and costly. In its June report on the flood outlook for 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that non-storm, high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” And in May, NASA said that the United States had experienced record-setting precipitation, characterizing it as the “soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping.”

They also mean millions more in property damage, which in turn means more people getting payouts from the NFIP. In fact, the series of hurricanes that hit the United States in 2017 and 2018 also hit the NFIP hard—the program lost billions of dollars in payouts, leading the government to pass a disaster relief bill that helped the NFIP pay the claims. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which runs the NFIP, aims to double the number of people who have flood insurance by 2023, but according to E&E News analysis, coverage in the United States has declined by 31% since 2011, leaving many without protection if they are hit with flooding.

In 2012, Congress passed a law allowing federal agencies to begin accepting private flood policies, but the market has been sluggish to fill the gaps. Some are stepping in—indeed, the American Association of Insurance Services (AAIS) today announced a partnership with Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. (Munch Re) to provide flood insurance aimed at homeowners outside major flood zones. But with few other private insurance companies offering flood policies, if the NFIP is not reauthorized, this could leave more than half-a-million people across the country without coverage.

Catastrophic Floods More Frequent in 2019

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Last week, after already experiencing heavy rainfalls and flooding, New Orleans was preparing for tropical storm Barry, expecting the storm to overflow or even breach the city’s levees. Flights in and out of the city were cancelled, as were concerts and other public events, as the city braced for catastrophe. Barry ended up narrowly missing New Orleans, and instead moved inland, drenching other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and causing floods and mass power outages in those areas. It was yet another example of how major flooding has become a normal occurrence for many regions of the country, and by all indications, it is becoming worse each year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its report 2017 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook that “The projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as 60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines as compared to typical flooding about 20 years ago and 100% higher than 30 years ago.” This prediction turned out to be accurate, as the United States saw massive flooding throughout 2018, including “sunny-day” or “high-tide” flooding that occurs during high tides outside of hurricane events.

In its recent report on 2018 high-tide flooding and 2019 outlook, the NOAA said that these floods’ median frequency in 2018 “reached 5 days, which tied the historical record of 2015.” Of the 98 observed locations along the U.S. coastline, 12 reportedly broke or tied their all-time records for high-tide flooding in 2018. And now, the NOAA is predicting that 2019 could be even worse.

The NOAA noted that high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a strong storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” The Union of Concerned Scientists has said that sea level rise is accelerating, that “sea levels in the U.S. are rising fastest along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico,” and that the primary reason for this sea level rise is climate change melting land ice and heating oceans.

According to the NOAA’s 2019 projections, it expects high-tide flooding along the U.S. coastlines this year to reach double the numbers from 2000. Additionally, “the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140% increase, the Southeast could see a 190% increase, and the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130% increase.”

Almost 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas, and could be at risk from flooding effects. With the start of hurricane season, these dangers will only increase as storms batter the coasts. Even before Barry threatened, New Orleans faced massive flooding last week, while Pittsburgh contended with flash floods. And the week before, heavy rains left Washington, D.C. and surrounding towns swimming in water that overwhelmed the city’s storm water pipes.

These increasing floods mean serious losses for people, municipalities and businesses. The recent DC-area floods reportedly caused $3.5 million in damage to Arlington, Virginia county infrastructure alone. In March, a “bomb cyclone” hit Nebraska, with heavy rainfall causing damages totaling more than $1.3 billion. This figure includes $449 million in road, levee and other infrastructure damage, as well as serious damage to more than 2,000 homes and 340 businesses. Iowa also experienced flooding that caused water treatment plants to shut down, depriving two cities’ residents of fresh water. And across the Midwest, agriculture was also hit hard by flooding, slowing corn and soybean planting. The delay may decrease harvests by at least 8% and increase prices worldwide.

As Risk Management Monitor has previously reported, Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examined the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, finding that major storm events that caused flooding would have huge secondary effects on the economy, both locally and nationally.

Various states, including those along the Mississippi River, have already enacted flood control measures like levees, dams and flood walls, but have seen this year’s increased flooding defeat these measures. Others have encouraged residents to purchase flood insurance to offset losses. But the increasing scope of future floods may mean that these steps are not enough. Though tropical storm Barry missed New Orleans, experts have still expressed concern about coming storms possibly “topping” the city’s levees, which could cause even more damage to the already-flooded city.

Q&A: Resiliency in India

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The 2018 Lloyd’s City Risk Index was analyzed during the RIMS Risk Forum India in Mumbai, and it notes a possible turning point for the subcontinent’s cities regarding resiliency. In short, Indian cities were rated as weak, but recent government and public investments and campaigns that focus on strengthening infrastructures and people may strengthen those assessments.

During a November 14 morning session, “Assessing the Impact of Natural and Man-made Threats on India’s Economy,” Shankar Garigiparthy, country manager and CEO of Lloyd’s India discussed how much economic output (GDP) cities in India could lose annually as a consequence of various types of rare risk events – such as the Kerala floods this past July – or from more frequently occurring events such as cyberattacks.

He discussed with Risk Management Monitor reasons why he is hopeful for a resiliency turnaround in India and how the combined wills of the government, media, public and business can strengthen the country’s infrastructures and ultimately, its risk ratings.

RMM: How do India’s cities rank in Lloyd’s City Risk Index?

SG: Lloyd’s City Risk Index was published three months ago and we researched 279 cities. We found that a vast majority of cities within the subcontinent of India have been rated as very weak from a resilience point of view. They are at high risk for flood, geopolitical security, market crash, just to name a few.

RMM: What steps are being taken to improve the collective resiliency?

SG: What we have seen in last three or four years is a significant level of investment from the government in terms of building infrastructure. It’s been in the form of roads, bridges, railways, ports, and airports, there has been a significant level of investment. And it seems there is more to come. In the budget, the government has announced more – which is encouraging to see from an infrastructure-building point of view.

However, where we still see a bit of lack is in the area of insurance penetration in the country. That’s where I think insurance companies can be a useful partner and tool to mitigate some of the level of these risks.

RMM: Could this be a chance for insurers to get in on the ground floor of India’s improvement projects?

SG: Yes.

RMM: What incidents have influenced the government to act?

SG: The Chennai floods [in 2015] and the floods in Kerala [in July]. That was a once-in-a-hundred-years occurrence. The entire state was flooded, which I think was the first of its kind. It was completely underwater.

Similarly, the Chennai floods marked another major event. Since then, monsoon has happened but the level of flooding has been managed pretty well.

In the session, we examined the Mumbai floods in 2005. And even last year, there was flooding here for a day, but within a day the water receded pretty quickly and was pumped out. The machinery kicked in and we were able to get out of it pretty well.

RMM: What led to that success?

SG: It was a combination of low tide and the government investing in the necessary pumping mechanisms to actually pump the water back into the sea, and unclog some of the stormwater drains as well. Steps are being taken, slowly but steadily.

RMM: What other institutions are taking measures to build resiliency?

SG: There are a few companies [which I won’t name] that are leading the way and it is encouraging to see that.

The media is also equally playing a fairly significant role as well. That’s also helping because public awareness is something that is critical. The media is raising awareness in terms of the importance of protecting your infrastructure and environment and the need for trees and planting.

RMM: Would you agree that the will to change and improve existing infrastructures is as important as the funding?

SG: I think it’s all there. The government has shown willingness to improve infrastructure. The people have demanded it, so there is a push and a pull coming from both sides. And we are seeing that development happen. Compared to where we were five or ten years ago and where we are now, there’s been a massive change.

There is still more that can be done. I’m not saying that we’re there yet. But it’s not an easy thing, as well.

Given India’s geography and how the political scenario is within the country, we will always be exposed to natural catastrophes. Flooding is going to be a constant phenomenon for us.

There is investment being done but it’s patchy. In some states there has been fantastic infrastructure investment and in others, less so. I think that has got to be addressed and that’s where the public [should be] demanding more actions there, where infrastructure investment has not been up to the mark.

Hurricane Michael Death Toll Reaches 29 As Water Risks Emerge

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With experts estimating weeks-at-least before normalcy can return to Florida’s Panhandle coast, Hurricane Michael—a category 4 storm which destroyed thousands of houses in Florida and Georgia—has so far caused at least 29 deaths and numerous injuries in four states. Upon its touchdown on Oct. 10, Michael became one of the strongest ever to hit the U.S. mainland with wind speeds of up to 155 miles per hour. Reports indicate that dozens of people are still missing in the U.S. and up to 35 people remain unaccounted for in hard-hit Mexico Beach.

Boston-based Karen Clark & Company, a risk-modeling firm, estimated that Hurricane Michael caused about $8 billion in insured losses. It includes the privately insured wind and storm surge damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobiles. The figure excludes losses covered by the National Flood Insurance Program.

Brian Wooley, vice president of operations for Interstate Restoration, a Texas-based emergency response and general restoration contractor, said the damage outcomes appear similar to major storms that occurred over the last two hurricane seasons.

“With Michael, we have seen far more wind-related damage as opposed to the kind of flooding damage that we saw with Hurricane Florence last month and Hurricane Harvey last year,” Wooley said. “Numerous businesses were completely wiped out and some were left only with standing walls, but no roofs; leaving all of their contents and structures exposed to the environment…they will have to completely rebuild and restock. As devastating as Hurricane Katrina was, Michael caused more widescale wind-related damage. And even with forceful Hurricane Irma, it didn’t destroy entire communities like Michael was able to do.”

More than 158,000 power customers didn’t have electricity yesterday, demonstrating that progress is being made, as 237,000 were reported Monday without power in the southeast as a result. This is a problem exacerbated by the stifling heat, with the hardest-hit areas receiving air-dropped food and water to survive.  The State of Florida said 3 million ready-to-eat meals, 2 million gallons of water and 2 million pounds of ice are being distributed in storm-impacted areas.

Wooley said that many businesses have proven resilient but others are recovering “in a limping manner.”

“Other projects will take months, and still others might take as long as a year-and-a-half depending on the severity of damage, insurance process complexities,” he said.

Environmental Risks

Another risk that residents and businesses in Florida and Mexico will have to contend with is that of grey water, which contains significant chemical, biological, or physical elements.

“[Grey water] may quickly become hazardous to human exposure as microbes and other contaminants begin to grow to dangerous levels when water has been standing in excess of 48 to 72 hours,” Wooley said. “These types of contaminants typically require a special remediation process and careful handling to safeguard against serious health dangers. This issue of harmful algae is an example of why people should be sure to hire a trusted restoration company with extensive experience dealing with these types of storm situations.”

Emergency Orders and Policyholder Protections

On Oct. 14, Florida Gov. Rick Scott directed Florida’s insurance commissioner to take every action authorized pursuant to Executive Order 18-276 to provide additional protections to support recovery efforts in the areas of the state impacted by Hurricane Michael. Gov. Scott and other state legislators made it clear that the expectation for Florida’s insurance companies is to expeditiously respond to policyholders’ needs and to treat families fairly. The quick response of insurance companies is critical to the recovery of Florida families following Hurricane Michael.

Gov. Scott said: “Hurricane Michael absolutely devastated Florida’s northern Gulf Coast and Panhandle and the recovery of every family impacted by this storm is our top priority. Today… we are mobilizing even more resources and staff to provide additional protections for consumers. Our state will never tolerate anyone taking advantage of the families recovering from this storm.”

Gov. Scott directed additional protections for Florida policyholders in the impacted area:

  1. Provide an additional 90 days to policyholders to supply required information to their insurance company. Many Floridians were displaced during this dangerous storm, and providing additional time to submit information to insurance companies gives them needed flexibility.
  2. Require all non-renewals or cancellations issued to policyholders in the days leading up to Hurricane Michael be rescinded for 90 days. This gives policyholders 90 days to either renew their insurance policy, or find a new policy; and
  3. Freeze any and all efforts to increase rates on policyholders for 90 days. Due to the devastating effects of Hurricane Michael, Floridians should be focused on getting back to their normal lives without their insurance premiums being increased.

During the weekend before landfall, Gov. Scott declared a state of emergency for several counties from the Gulf Coast to Navarre on the Panhandle to the Suwanee River.