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Hurricane Florence Losses Estimated at $2.5 Billion

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Now a tropical depression, Florence hovered primarily over North and South Carolina over the weekend, dumping record-breaking rainfall in those states and killing at least 17 people. Remnants of the system are heading north, bringing rain through Tuesday.

The storm made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, N.C. on Sept. 14, causing more than one million power failures and at least 16 deaths over the weekend, according to the New York Times. Tropical Depression Florence slowly flooded cities, endangering communities from the coastline to the mountains, and requiring more than 1,000 rescues.

Karen Clark & Company (KCC) estimates that insured losses from Hurricane Florence will be $2.5 billion, which includes the privately insured wind, storm surge, and inland flooding damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles, but does not include National Flood Insurance Program losses.

KCC reports:

On Sept. 14, Florence made landfall in North Carolina with maximum sustained wind speeds around 90 mph. As the storm slowly passed southwest over South Carolina on Sept. 15, the hurricane weakened to a tropical storm and made a wide turn to the north. By Sept. 16, Florence had become a tropical depression in northeastern South Carolina.

Peak surge from Hurricane Florence reached 10 feet in New Bern, North Carolina, and other areas of the state including Beaufort and Wilmington had significant storm surge impacts. Locations at the heads of shallow bays, where the water is more easily pushed ashore by a hurricane’s high wind speeds, experienced the most coastal inundation.

Although this storm is winding down, there may be more to come. “We’re now in the peak of hurricane season, and the season still has a long way to go,” Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration told the Times. He added, “There will be more storms—that’s a definite. Where exactly they track, and when or if they’ll make landfall—that’s what’s not predictable this far in advance.”

Florence Highlights
▪Made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, with Category 1 wind speeds

▪Reached peak intensity of 140 mph on Sept. 10, but weakened before impacting the U.S. coast and spared the Carolinas from major hurricane impacts

▪Expected intensification to a Category 5 hurricane did not occur

▪Slow forward speed decreased to 6 mph prior to landfall and reached as low as 2 mph once inland

▪Brought heavy precipitation in excess of 30 inches to parts of North Carolina

▪Peak storm surge reached 10 feet in New Bern, North Carolina

Q&A: Cape Town’s ‘Day Zero’

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On March 22, annual World Water Day will be especially relevant, as the United Nations and its co-sponsors hope to raise global awareness of water risks—particularly in Cape Town, South Africa. As we previously reported, a diminishing water supply is that city’s top priority, as it is counting down to a possible “Day Zero” (which had been set for July 9, but the City has stopped providing a date), when it could effectively become the first major city to run dry.

One of World Water Day’s partners is World Wide Fund For Nature South Africa (WWF-SA), an arm of what was formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund. Christine Colvin, senior manager of Freshwater for WWF-SA, recently discussed Cape Town’s struggles and how other major cities and businesses can learn from the preparedness plan and efforts to avoid a total drought.

Risk Management Monitor: Cape Town, which has 4 million residents, has a preparedness plan in effect that includes rationing among 200 water distribution points for 25 liters per person. Do you feel this plan is sustainable?

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Christine Colvin: At this stage, the general consensus is that Day Zero is not as imminent a threat as it was earlier in the year, and in all likelihood, there will be some rain and augmentation schemes will start to come online before dams drop to the critical 13.5% (which would activate the disaster plan).

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Consequently, the major

push is to encourage citizens to stay within their current daily limit of 50 liters of water per person, per day to see us through to the rainy season and beyond. If we are able to achieve this objective, the hope is that we should push out Day Zero as far as possible, thus buying the city time to bring on augmentation schemes.

RMM: How could Cape Town officials explore nature-based solutions (this year’s World Water Day campaign) to its water challenges?

Colvin: Ecological infrastructure is the foundation of water security and the first link in the water value chain. If our catchments are healthy and functional they deliver better quality, more reliable yields of water into our dams and aquifers. If they are invaded with alien vegetation or degraded by over-grazing or over-burning then they yield less water and more silt that will eventually destroy any downstream infrastructure we build to deliver water to our homes and farms. WWF-SA actively advocates the protection of water source areas through, among other things, water stewardship and catchment clearance of alien vegetation and has actively communicated this approach to the City of Cape Town during this drought period.

In our communications to the general public, we also encourage better stewardship of existing natural water sources such as groundwater and rivers, and promoting a water-wise culture. Our stewardship work in the Western Cape, the province in which Cape Town is located, focuses strongly on the agricultural sector which is a key industry for the region.

RMM: What steps can a major city take to prepare for a drought?

Colvin: Our Wednesday Water File on international case studies highlights many pertinent actions, perhaps best summarized in the Australian example:

  • Invest in fixing leaking infrastructure—one of the most cost-effective measures to improve water supplies
  • Introduce a demand management program which includes strict new legal requirements on business and domestic water use, coupled with a major education campaign
  • Diversify water supplies so if one source fails others can be drawn on, among them: dams, desalination, recycled water, rainwater tanks, groundwater, and storm water harvesting
  • Create a water grid which links major regional water supplies so water can be moved to where it is needed 

RMM: How is World Water Day raising awareness to the situation in Cape Town?

Colvin: While water is top of mind in Cape Town, the intention is to remind all South Africans that we live in a water-stressed country and the protection of strategic Water Source Areas and their natural capital is a national project. Water source areas are particularly important—making up 8% of South Africa’s land area but delivering 50% of our river flow to the rest of the country. Good management of these high rainfall mountainous headwater areas delivers a high return on investment downstream.

World Water Day is an important time to reflect on the relationship between water and nature.

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Many, but not all, residents of Cape Town are now aware of the “new normal” in which we are likely to experience much drier periods and have to conserve water but it remains vital to reinforce the message that water does not come from a tap—it comes from nature.

Cape Town’s Water Shortage Approaching ‘Day Zero’

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Risk Management magazine recently covered the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2018 Global Risks Report, in which environmental and technological risks dominate the worldwide threat landscape. The WEF ranked water crises as the fifth-highest risk based on impact, downgraded from the number one spot in 2015. But a diminishing water supply is certainly the top priority in Cape Town, South Africa, which is counting down to an increasingly imminent “Day Zero,” when it will effectively become the first major city to run dry.

In preparation for “Day Zero,” which is predicted to occur on July 9 (although it has been rescheduled several times), officials advised Cape Town’s 4 million residents to limit water use to 50 liters (13.

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2 gallons) per person per day, hoping to stretch the supply as far possible. Here’s how the Day Zero date has been calculated:

While assessing its own water supply risks, the Philly Voice equated that amount of water to “…a 90-second shower, two brushings of the teeth, one toilet flush, one cooked meal, a sink-full to wash dishes and a half-gallon of drinking water.”

Cape Town also has tariffs to help finance water and sanitation services and drive down demand of this basic human need. Nevertheless, the dams that supply most of the city’s water are only at 25% capacity as water usage reportedly remains well above targets. Once the dams reach 13.5% capacity, Cape Town intends to shut off the municipal water supply to all but essential services (like hospitals). Residents will then be allowed a daily 25-liter (6.6 gallon) water ration that they must collect from one of 200 water stations, which will be overseen by armed guards.

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Researchers from Stellenbosch University, located in the Western Cape province of South Africa provided a thorough evaluation of the preparedness plan’s feasibility, particularly during the post-Day Zero period. Taking a risk management approach of assuming no additional supply until the next rainy season, they called for strategies that either double the number of distribution points or increase the number of taps and water pressure at each of the 200 points:

“But even these strategies won’t help if Cape Town doesn’t address the reality of conflict and related delays. These are unpredictable and incalculable. They are also the greatest indication for why Day Zero should be avoided at all costs.”

As Risk Management Monitor reported in 2016, “the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia and the Americas are under stress, with many of them being drawn down at unsustainable rates. Nearly two billion people rely on groundwater that is considered under threat.”

Water Foundry Founder and CEO Will Sarni recently offered a six-step strategy that other cities can take to avoid future Day Zeroes; the plan calls for the combined efforts of private sector leaders and public sector authorities:

“In building a solution, we call for a greater role for market forces balanced with regulatory oversight. In particular, the private sector has an essential role to play in devising technology and infrastructure solutions.

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But we have to incentivize companies to develop these solutions and then reward those that succeed. We applaud the initiatives of companies such as Coca-Cola Peninsula Beverages, ABInBev and others, but we need much more.”

The BBC has listed 11 other major international cities that may be faced with a similar water supply crisis.

How Small Businesses Can Prepare for the Next Natural Disaster

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As we have witnessed these past two months, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria devastated many parts of the south coast and the economies of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico. The damage from the storms is expected to halt U.S. GDP by an entire percent. Recent estimates put the costs of recovery at around $85 billion and $59 billion for Harvey and Irma respectively.

While larger businesses have the resources to rebuild and recover, many smaller businesses do not. They will likely struggle to account for the cost of repairs, and even lose their companies in the process. According to FEMA, nearly four in 10 small businesses struck by a natural disaster are forced to permanently shut down. With more storms expected in the coming weeks as hurricane season persists through November, it is vital that small business owners prepare in the meantime.

The first step for any small business is to prepare internally. Here are three best practices that small-business owners can adopt to prepare for a future hurricane or any other natural disaster.

  1. Establish a recovery plan: Often, disaster recovery plans fall to the bottom of small-business owners’ to-do lists, especially if their business is located in an area that doesn’t typically experience high-risk weather. However, no business is immune from a harmful storm’s impact. So disaster preparedness starts with a formal plan that’s comprehensive and allows the company to quickly restore its normal operations following an emergency.
  2. Discuss your plan with all employees: It is crucial for your entire staff to be on the same page when it comes to what your disaster plan involves in order for it to be effective. So once small-business owners have a plan in place, they need to ensure that their employees know what’s included and what their responsibilities are should a natural disaster strike.
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    Owners can share this information by emailing a copy to all employees and discussing the plan in detail at the next all-hands meeting.

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  3. Back up your business’s data: Small-business owners should ensure their data is backed up both virtually and physically in a secure location. Doing so can prevent a natural disaster from turning into an even worse data loss debacle.

While following these steps can get small businesses on the right track toward hurricane preparedness, no company can be fully protected without insurance.

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With a plan in place, the next step is finding the right hurricane insurance plan. But there is often confusion over what proper hurricane coverage looks like.

Small businesses should take into account the specific rules and regulations of their industry when choosing an insurance plan to protect against hurricanes and other natural disasters. That said, there are two policies that are essential to businesses that need a defense against hurricanes.

Commercial Property Insurance is a policy that helps cover some of the cost to repair damages or restore your business property should a natural disaster cause harm. It is important to note, however, that many commercial property insurance policies only protect damages caused by hurricane winds, not flood damage resulting from rising water. If your business is located in an area prone to hurricanes, ask your insurance provider about “riders” (also known as endorsements), which can be added to your policy for more complete coverage.

Business Interruption Insurance is a policy that helps companies deal with the extended time (and business) they may lose as a result of hurricane damage. Often, this forced, lengthy pause in operations is what causes small businesses to permanently close, due to the high costs they incur and their inability to generate the revenue required to cover those costs. Business interruption insurance helps small businesses through by providing the funds for necessities such as taxes, loan payments, rent and salaries. Again, it is key to ask your provider exactly what a policy covers before purchasing it. Typically, business interruption insurance only protects your business if the circumstance that forced you to shut down is already covered by your commercial property policy.

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has already been deemed the third worst on record. With more than a month to go, small businesses can ensure that they’re protected from damages through internal company policies and a thorough insurance plan. As far as hurricane insurance coverage goes, it’s crucial for businesses to do their research and find the policies that will provide the best protection. Although developing these plans will take time and effort, the risks mitigated and money saved as a result will be well worth it in the long run.