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What Is Resiliency?

When it comes to disasters, prevention is of course better than recovery. But the real world is not paradise and catastrophes will occur. That inevitability means that how companies are able to respond and bounce back might be the most important aspect of disaster management.

Nobody’s perfect — but everyone can be resilient.

But what does that mean? What is resiliency?

Michael Collins of Argonne National Laboratory is helping define it for communities across the United States. And today at the World Conference on Disaster Management in Toronto, he discussed how, along with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), his agency has been tasked with sending officials throughout the nation to assess how each area stacks up. Ultimately, the goal is to compile an objective, quantitative, comprehensive database so that the government — federal, state and local — has a baseline against which municipalities can be compered. It is an in-depth, long-term project that will greatly aid both DHS and FEMA in determining how communities can become more resistant to disasters.

So far, the “resiliency index” they are developing remains in its infancy. We will bring you more on it in the near future as I flesh out more of the details and get the opportunity to speak with Collins directly.

But as they continue to push things forward, let’s first look at a few of the definitions that Collins shared today in his presentation on what resiliency really means.

“Our goal is to ensure a more resilient nation. One in which individuals, communities and our economy can adapt to changing conditions as well as withstand and rapidly recover from disruption due to emergencies.” – Barak Obama

“The capability to anticipate risk, limit impact and bounce back rapidly through survival, adaptability evolution and growth in the face of turbulent change” – Community & Regional Resilience Institute

“The ability of individuals and communities to deal with a state of continuous, long term stress; the ability to find unknown inner strengths and resources in order to cope effectively; the measure of adaptation and flexibility” – Michael Ganor

“The ability of community members to take meaningful deliberate collective action to remedy the impact of a problem.” – Building Resilience to Mass Trauma Events

“A sustainable network of physical systems and human communities, capable of managing extreme events, during disasters, both must be able to function under extreme stress.” – David R. Godschalk

Lester Brown on How Climate Change Is Catastrophically Straining the Global Food Supply

Lester Brown, founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute

Throughout his distinguished career, Earth Policy Institute founder and president Lester Brown has sought to protect resources across the globe. This morning in his opening address at the World Conference on Disaster Management in Toronto, he stressed the importance of one that may now be as important as any ocean, rainforest or glacier. “Time is our scarcest resource,” said Brown on the urgency for the world to begin mitigating the effects of climate change. “How much do we have? No one knows for sure. When do we reach the point of no return. We don’t know.”

The theme of disaster prevention and catastrophe management will be at the forefront of all discussions that take place this week at the conference. But in Brown’s view, there is one disaster that supersedes all others: runaway climate change. To him, that’s “the Big D … the one that could end civilization.”

In addition to the ticking clock and the world’s inability to meaningfully cooperate on the issue, what makes the threat of climate change so catastrophic today is the volatility it places on the global food supply. More than ever, the world grain supply is being strained. And this comes at the same time that demand is increasing.

In the past, major grain surpluses for U.S. production could make up for unexpected droughts, floods or fires that wipe out crop yields in other areas of the globe. Today, however, those surpluses no longer exist. And this is likely the new normal.

To drive home his point, Brown highlighted the massive heat wave, drought and wildfires that wiped out 40% of the Russian grain harvest last summer. He said that if someone had told him before the disaster that the average temperature in Moscow in July would be 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average, he wouldn’t have believed it. “I’m not a climate denier, but that’s unreasonable,” is how he said he would have responded. “Well, that’s what happened.”

In and of itself, that supply shortage affected global prices and stressed the market. But if a similar event were to occur in Chicago? Grain prices would go through the roof.

Again, in the past, agriculture speculators could just chalk up such events as anomalies. Maybe a disaster wiped out some percentage of the global supply that year, but they could be confident that the next season would balance things out. Brown doesn’t seen that happening anymore, however. “There is no normal to go back to,” he said. “The climate is in a constant state of flux.”

And even without a single, identifiable disaster like the one in Russia, the future of the global food supply is troubling. Brown said that estimates project a 10% decrease in grain crop yields for every additional degree Celsius increase in global temperatures. “Each year, agriculture and the climate are more out of sync,” said Brown.

That’s not the only bad news on the supply side.

There is also an irrigation bubble that means today’s global output is artificially high. The United States, China and India are the three top grain-producing nations in the world. Only one-fifth of the U.S. grain yield comes from irrigated land. Even if the continually strained Colorado River basin or Mississippi River region were to dry up somewhat, the nation could still produce at nearly the same level it does today. It’s a different story in India and China, however, according to Brown.

World Bank data says that in India there are 175 million people being fed with grain produced by the over-pumping of local aquifers. The Earth Policy Institute estimates that number at 130 million in China.

It doesn’t take a scientist to see that this is unsustainable. Eventually, the aquifers that are being aggressively pumped will be depleted and, once they are, the rate of irrigation will only be able to match the natural aquifer’s rate of recovery, says Brown. So eventually the current levels will have to fall. The irrigation bubble will burst.

“That bubble has already burst in Saudi Arabia,” he said, adding that the nation will likely be out of the grain production business altogether in just a few years. Since Saudi Arabia only produces 0.5% of the world’s global grain supply, this won’t significantly hamper the global market. And if anyone can afford to import, it’s the Saudis. But this, in addition to depleting water tables throughout the the Middle East, and the bubbles in China and Israel, spells trouble.

“We are only one harvest away from chaos,” said Brown.

Additionally, demand is increasing. Throughout the developing world, particularly in India and China, there are hundreds of millions of people rising out of poverty who will greatly inflate the world’s middle class in the coming decades. Along with a larger middle class comes more people wanting to live a middle-class standard of life. Perhaps more than anything, this affluence will lead to greater food consumption. And since grain feeds both people and livestock, grain consumption per capita will only rise.

Then there are biofuels. In this sense, ethanol is a non-solution solution. It may cut down on carbon dioxide emissions. But crop yields are now being divided between the dinner plate and the gas tank.

The grim reality of all this is that, as the global food supply becomes more strained, so will nations. Food supply security is something that citizens demand from their government and if it disappears, so could the social order, leading to more failed states. “How many failing states before the whole system begins to unravel?” said Brown. “We don’t know this yet. We haven’t been there.”

And that’s the scariest part of all.

(In addition to listening to Lester Brown’s keynote address at the 2011 WCDM, I had the chance to interview him to get even more insight about climate change and the global food supply. Our Q&A will appear in the July/August issue of Risk Management magazine.)

Corrupt Chinese Officials Steal Billions

It seems Chinese government officials are anything but honest employees. A lengthy report that recently made its way into the media details how corrupt Chinese officials have stolen 3 billion over several years and stashed most of it in the U.

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S.

The report claims that up to “18,000 corrupt officials and employees of state-owned enterprises have fled abroad or gone into hiding since the mid-1990s.” The PDF of the report is available in Chinese cyberspace and offers a glimpse into who was stealing money, how much they stole and how they handled their cross border money laundering.

In one case, Xu Fangming, a former Ministry of Finance official allegedly deposited roughly 1 million yuan into the bank account of a son studying abroad.

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In another, Cheng Kejie, a top politician got his mistress settled in Hong Kong and funneled money to her. Some of the stories are well known. Among the most notable is the tale of Zhang Jian, a former Communist Party chief of Haimen in Jiangsu province, who famously dumped his ill-gotten 18 million yuan into Macao casinos. According to the report, he funded his 48 visits over two years with credit cards.

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The other popular methods used for stashing stolen money include black market banking services, trade under current accounts, overseas investments, credit cards and offshore financial centers in the Caribbean and Europe.

China’s central bank has stated that it will cooperate with foreign officials.

A Year of Unprecedented Tornadoes and Floods — And How Insurance Helps Companies Rebuild

(This is a special guest post written by Barry I. Buchman and Benjamin R. Davidson of Gilbert LLP, a firm that represents companies on a wide variety of insurance issues. Buchman is a partner and Davidson is an associate in the company’s Washington office. – JW)

A young girl beholds the devastating power of Mother Nature following an EF5 tornado in Joplin, Mississippi. (Photo: Dustie / Shutterstock.com)

As floodwaters have threatened Missouri communities along the Mississippi River, and as the town of Joplin, Mississippi, reels from the recent devastating tornado, the residents of these communities are quite appropriately absorbed with efforts to regain some semblance of normal daily life. But, eventually, the waters recede, the debris is cleared, and business owners must turn their attention to rebuilding their businesses and recouping losses sustained.

Depending on the circumstances and the insurance purchased, insurance contracts may help businesses recover losses resulting from damaged buildings, vehicles, equipment and other property. Here are a few of the business losses that may potentially be insured.

Property Damage
The most basic type of loss that may be covered by insurance is property damage. Buildings, equipment, records, vehicles, and other property may sustain direct damage, or damage from disaster events.

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A typical property policy would cover the cost of rebuilding or repairing such property, if the property is “covered property” and if the cause of damage is a “covered cause of loss.”

Commercial property policies also often provide some protection for lost profits that result from damage to “covered property” based on a “covered event,” such as a flood, tornado, or earthquake. These types of losses generally fall into one of two categories of coverage: “business interruption” and “contingent business interruption.” Business interruption losses occur when a company loses profits due to damage to its own facilities. Contingent business interruption losses occur when a company loses profits due to the inability to get materials from a supplier or to sell its products to a customer, due to property damage sustained by that supplier or customer at its facilities.

A third category of loss that may be covered consists of expenses that businesses may incur in order to address the impact to their business of the flooding or tornado. For example, a business may incur expenses to shift production away from a damaged plant to other facilities.

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A business also may incur “extra expense” if, during the period that its normal suppliers cannot operate, the business has to use more expensive suppliers. These types of losses often fall under the extra expense coverage of a typical property policy, which also may cover costs and fees for professional services (e.g., from accounting firms and consultants) that are necessary for the company to deal with the disaster.

Potential Coverage Disputes
One dispute that often arises under property policies is whether there actually has been physical damage to insured property, which, as noted, typically is required for business interruption and contingent business interruption claims. For example, an insured company or its supplier may not have sustained physical damage to its factory, but because of a lack of power or an inability to get people/items in and out of the property, the company cannot use the facility.

Businesses have several tools at their disposal to address such disputes. For example, even if neither an insured company nor its direct suppliers have sustained physical property damage, some courts have interpreted the term “supplier,” for contingent business interruption purposes, to include more than direct suppliers (e.g., suppliers of direct suppliers).

Many property policies also provide types of coverage that may not require physical damage to the insured company’s own premises, such as “civil authority” coverage, “ingress/egress” coverage, and “service interruption” coverage.  Civil authority provisions, for example, typically cover business interruption losses caused by an order, such as a curfew or road closure, that prevents use of insured facilities. For example, due to flooding, the Mississippi Gaming Commission shut down nine casinos in the city of Tunica, leaving the companies with no way to continue generating revenue.

Although such provisions often provide coverage only when the civil authority order results from property damage, civil authority provisions tend to vary materially between policies, and not always in obvious ways, so a careful examination of the precise language is critical.

For example, after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, U.S. Airways and United Airlines each litigated with their insurers over whether their civil authority coverage provisions applied to losses caused by the closure of Reagan National Airport.

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U.S. Airways won, and United lost, the merits of that coverage dispute, based on nuanced differences in the language of their civil authority provisions. (U.S. Airway’s victory was later vacated on appeal, on grounds independent of the merits of the policy interpretation dispute between U.S. Airways and its insurer.)

The same careful review of policy language is necessary for “ingress/egress” provisions and “service interruption” provisions.

Another potential dispute arises from the fact that some property policies contain flood exclusions, and insurers almost certainly will raise any such exclusions as a complete defense to claims based on the recent flooding. But in instances where the floodwaters themselves did not directly cause damage, but instead precipitated events (such as fires) that caused damage, businesses may have rights to coverage under insurance law concepts like the “efficient proximate cause” and “concurrent causation” doctrines.

Although the insurance industry has attempted to contract around these causation doctrines through the use of so-called “anti-concurrent causation clauses,” courts have taken differing approaches to the scope and enforceability of these clauses. Thus, as in many insurance disputes, the issue of which jurisdiction’s law applies to these issues will be important.

Insurers also may challenge the efficacy of loss mitigation measures that businesses adopt to address the effects of the recent tornado or flooding. Typical property policies require business owners to take reasonable steps to minimize losses, and insurers often question, after the fact, the measures that businesses take to do that. Businesses should be prepared to rebut any such hindsight-based arguments, and to defend their business decisions. Furthermore, under many property policies businesses may be able to recover expenses incurred in order to mitigate loss.

Practical Pointers for Preserving Insurance Rights
There are steps that businesses can and should take now to put themselves in the best possible position to secure coverage if and when the need arises.

  • First, businesses should collect, organize, and review their insurance policies. This process should include an effort to identify and obtain policies issued to other businesses, such as current and former affiliates, that may also provide coverage.
  • Second, most property policies require policyholders to provide notice of potential claims and to submit “proofs of loss” quickly, and these policies also often have express deadlines for when any lawsuit against the insurer must be brought if there is a dispute.
    For example, many property policies require that businesses “immediately” give notice of a loss that may give rise to a claim, and policies often further require that a policyholder submit a “proof of loss,” documenting the insured damage, business losses, and expenses, within 60-90 days. These policies often also require that any lawsuit against the insurer be brought within one or two years. It is critical that businesses promptly give at least precautionary notice, absent business reasons to refrain from doing so. Business owners should also keep their insurers informed of their efforts to mitigate their damages and to reopen their businesses, in order to limit future disputes.
    Moreover, businesses should consider approaching their insurers about postponing, or “tolling,” the referenced proof of loss and lawsuit deadlines, by agreement. Insurance companies often are willing to do so in situations that involve widespread losses, like those that can be anticipated with the recent tornado and flooding. Note, however, that some jurisdictions differ in their rules regarding the extent to which parties can enter into such “tolling” agreements, and thus an examination of the applicable law is necessary.
  • Third, businesses should carefully document their property damage, lost revenues, and additional expenses, and they also should set up protocols for communicating both internally and externally about any losses and insurance issues. Because of the nuances in the coverage issues raised, such protocols are important to help protect against inadvertent characterizations regarding the nature or cause of losses, for example, that insurers might use later if a coverage dispute arises.  Thus, businesses should consider involving their legal departments and insurance lawyers in such communications.
  • Finally, because of the complicated coverage questions and potential procedural traps previewed here, businesses should consider consulting with experienced professionals, such as insurance brokers, accounting consultants, and coverage counsel, who can help prepare for a potential coverage claim.

The coverage provided by a business’s insurance policies can be an extremely valuable business asset.  Business owners can maximize the benefits of insurance, and minimize the chances of protracted disputes later, by acting proactively now to assess and preserve their rights.