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Leaders to Watch

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On the heels of their “Top Risks for 2010” report, the Eurasia Group released its “2010 Leaders to Watch” list, highlighting the world leaders that are expected to make the biggest impact on the world this year. Not surprisingly, considering that U.S./China relations claimed the top spot in the “Top Risks” report, number one and number two on the leaders list are Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and U.S. President Barack Obama. The top five leaders are discussed below:

  1. Wen Jiabao, China – “Having guided China through the worst of the economic crisis, Premier Wen Jiabao, the head of China’s sprawling state bureaucracies, now faces the equally difficult task of shifting Chinese policy from stimulating the economy to containing inflation and preventing asset bubbles.”
  2. Barack Obama, United States – “This year may define the presidency of Barack Obama. He enters 2010 with diminished approval ratings, high unemployment, a massive deficit and poor prospects for the Democratic Party in mid-term elections in November.
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    On issues of critical importance to his agenda, he has ceded considerable responsibility to Congress to determine timelines and details—which the legislature will be reluctant to give back.

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  3. Ichiro Ozawa, Japan – “If he survives the scandal that threatens to engulf him, Ichiro Ozawa has the opportunity to maneuver the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to victory in upper-house elections in July, giving it firm control over the government. Ozawa holds no cabinet position, but he is the most powerful politician in the DPJ, controlling its finances, electoral strategy, and the candidate-selection process as its secretary-general.”
  4. David Cameron, United Kingdom – “If, as expected, the Conservative (Tory) Party wins national parliamentary elections in May, its leader David Cameron will take over as prime minister of a troubled country. The UK is still struggling to overcome a recession, a real estate bubble, and a serious crisis in its all-important financial sector.”
  5. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil – “As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva begins his final year in office, he looks set to go out with a bang. Brazil is quickly recovering from the global economic downturn; Lula and his relatively market-friendly economic policies are closely associated with Brazil’s economic success. Internationally, he will utilize this appeal to pursue a larger role for Brazil in developing multilateral policies—in forums like the G20 and at climate change negotiations.
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Rounding out the rest of the top 10 are: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran; Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan; Vladimir Putin, Russia; Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates; and Olli Rehn, European Union.

Can Rio Hold a Safe Olympics?

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This weekend, a fierce gun battle between two drug gangs in Rio de Janeiro’s “Monkey Hill” slum left some ten suspected gang members dead and entire neighborhoods fearing for their lives as the sound of automatic fire could be heard all day long. At one point, a police helicopter, loitering over the area to direct anti-gang police measures, was hit by gunfire, caught fire and crashed, killing two police on board and injuring several others.

The drug violence of Rio’s favelas is nothing new. But the helicopter shoot-down was shocking, just as it was to hear of such incredible violence in a city that just a month before had been tapped over contenders such as Chicago and Tokyo to host the 2016 Summer Olympics.

In light of the recent gun battle, Brazilian officials have sent thousands of extra police into the slum to crack down on the violence and lawlessness there, but clearly, they face an uphill struggle. Even though the Olympics are several years away, the level of the security problem in the city will surely cast as much of a shadow over the coming games as terrorism fears did over the 2004 Olympics in Athens. At the moment, the U.S. State Department notes that Rio is a fairly dangerous city, crimewise, and that all of Brazil has a crime rate that is quadruple that of the United States. The Overseas Security Advisory Council echoes the State Department’s assessment of things, noting that the “Government of Brazil (GoB) is locked in an intense struggle against drug gangs for control of large areas of the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area.” After this weekend’s carnage, even that assessment seems to be putting things mildly.

Hopefully, Brazil can marshall the resources and the will needed to address the security problem in a permanent fashion, rather than temporarily suppressing it or displacing it elsewhere. The Olympics have a nasty habit of costing its host cities far more in the long run than they bring in, revenue-wise. After this weekend’s Monkey Hill bloodbath, it might be tempting to wonder if money spent on stadiums and athlete villages should be first spent on keeping the poor sections of town free of machinegun fire.