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New Rail Tank Car Usage Promises Safer Crude Oil Transport

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Added capacity of pipelines used to transport crude oil and declining prices are contributing to decreasing transport of crude oil—and an almost 97% drop in the use of older, less safe transport cars between 2014 and the end of March, Gannett reported this week.

Rail tank car shipments of crude oil from the Bakken oil fields in North Dakota have declined from a peak of 498,271 in 2014 to 424,996 in 2015, according to the Association of American Railroads. An AAR official made the announcement at a rail tanker car safety forum sponsored by the National Transportation Safety Board, according to Gannett.

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In the December 2013 report “Moving Crude Oil by Rail,” the AAR noted that the rail industry has been urging federal regulators “to toughen existing standards for new tank cars” and recommended that the estimated 92,000 existing tank cars used to transport flammable liquids, including crude oil, be retrofitted with advanced safety-enhancing technologies, or phased out if they cannot be upgraded.

While there are obvious issues with the transportation of oil by rail, the AAR has pointed out that railroads have an excellent safety record with crude, even surpassing pipelines in recent years. But the industry and federal regulators acknowledge there is much room for improvement.

The new, safer tank cars have thicker steel shells, insulating materials, full-size metal shields at each end and improved outlet valves underneath the car. Increased use of the new cars is good news for densely populated areas on the east and west coasts that have numerous trains—often of at least 100 tank cars—moving through daily.

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DOT 117 train car
A transportation law, the FAST Act, signed by President Obama in December 2015, includes new mandates for freight trains transporting crude oil through the U.S. The law requires that older tank cars be replaced by the newer, safer car for shipping flammable liquids by March 1, 2018, phasing out the older model used, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

A rail disaster in Lac-Mégantic, Canada, on July 26, 2013, that killed 42 people brought a heightened focus on the dangers of transporting highly flammable Bakken crude oil by train.

According to the DOT, the rule also:

  • Requires an enhanced tank car standard and an aggressive, risk-based retrofitting schedule for older tank cars carrying crude oil and ethanol.
  • Requires a new braking standard for certain trains that will offer a higher level of safety by potentially reducing the severity of an accident.
  • Designates new operational protocols for trains transporting large volumes of flammable liquids, such as routing requirements, speed restrictions, and information for local government agencies.
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  • Provides new sampling and testing requirements to improve classification of energy products placed into transport.

Oil and Politics: Brazil’s Petrobras Scandal

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PetrobasLast month, we focused on Mexico and specifically the state-owned oil company Pemex as a risk for companies selling or investing into Latin America. We saw that Pemex represents a drag on Mexican fiscal accounts and is imposing losses on suppliers and investors. This month, we turn our gaze to Brazil: it is similar to Mexico in that it has a dominant, politically charged state-owned oil company, but different because the scale of the crisis is much more severe, as are the risks to suppliers and investors.

Brazil is undergoing a major economic and political crisis, and its state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), is right at the center of the trouble. Petrobras shares some of the same challenges as Pemex: It started as an entirely state-owned firm, was used as an instrument of government policy from inception and took on enormous quantities of debt in recent times, exemplified by its $11 billion debt issue in 2013—the largest on record for emerging markets.

Brazil, however, recognizing earlier than Mexico the necessity of foreign investment for a viable oil industry, opened up the sector in 1997 and eventually reduced the government shareholding to 64% (direct plus indirect). Petrobras expanded into deepwater areas in Angola and the Gulf of Mexico and became one of the few national oil companies able to equally compete with companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and Total.

In 2014, information about the extent of corruption between Petrobras board members, various politicians and business executives not only came to light, but also sparked official investigations and arrests. President Dilma Rouseff has been temporarily removed from office pending a trial by the Senate. The official charge against her is manipulating the federal budget by directing state banks to support spending programs. She was the chair of Petrobras when the corruption allegedly occurred, however, and she and her party (Partido dos Trabalhadores or PT) are perceived by many as at least partly responsible for the scandal.

It is likely that Rouseff will be permanently removed from office within six months, but the uncertainty does not end there: As of this writing, two cabinet ministers have been removed from office, and six more are under investigation. Dozens of politicians and executives have been convicted in connection with the scandal, and prosecutors have recovered $795 million in stolen money. The economy of Brazil shrank 3.8% in 2015 and is projected to shrink another 3.5% in 2016. Moody’s downgraded Petrobras to Ba2 in December 2015, and S&P cut the sovereign rating to BB with a negative outlook in February. With the Zika virus now causing a global health emergency and the Olympics beginning in August, one wonders how many more stresses Brazil can take before serious political unrest breaks out.

Like with Pemex, the Petrobras crisis is increasing risks to suppliers already: There are trade credit insurance claims stemming from suppliers to Petrobras, and the wider Brazilian economic downturn (combined with the commodity price trough) is giving rise to other credit losses. But the Brazilian crisis goes well beyond trade credit risk. Brazil is a $2.2 trillion economy and one of the largest bond issuers in the emerging markets. As a result, this crisis has global implications: Eurasia Group has Brazil as one of its top 10 global risks for 2016.

Mexico and Brazil are not the only countries dependent on state-owned oil (or other natural resource) companies that are facing major challenges: Venezuela, Ecuador, Nigeria, Angola, Russia—the list goes on and on. In Brazil, however, there are some mitigating circumstances that reveal a silver lining. First, 85% of Brazil’s sovereign debt is held domestically, meaning it is less affected by currency depreciation and is easier to reschedule. Provided Brazil takes on some painful fiscal reforms, the country can dig itself out of the economic crisis. Secondly, so far, officials have been able to investigate and prosecute some of the parties responsible, despite the defendants being some of the more powerful people in Brazil.

There is hope that Brazil’s institutions will emerge all the stronger for being able to correct wrongdoing, which may set the stage for a more just Brazil and a better investment and credit risk environment in the long run. In the meantime, we are likely to see severe market and political volatility. It is a good idea to closely monitor your exposure in Brazil and in other countries dependent on highly indebted state-owned natural resource companies.

Mexico’s Pemex Illustrates Trade Credit Risks in Latin America

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With all the focus on the Middle East and Europe, it is easy to lose track of Latin America as a region with major risk issues. Companies investing and selling to Latin America have become accustomed to viewing its largest economies—Mexico and Brazil—as relatively low-risk countries with promising growth prospects. That perception has recently changed, however, largely because of a common ingredient: large state-owned oil companies on which the government depends.

With a $1.26 trillion economy and population of 122 million, Mexico is a key market for the United States and Canada, particularly since the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Some $535 billion in trade occurred between the U.S. and Mexico in 2014. From 2000 through 2012, U.S. foreign direct investment into Mexico totaled $291.7 billion.

With a monopoly (until recently) on oil production and fuel distribution, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is a colossus—the largest company in the country, representing about one-third of all government tax revenues and approximately 5% of Mexican exports. From its origin in 1938, Pemex has also been a political entity, as it was nationalized at a time when foreign companies dominated the oil sector. Since then, it has become enmeshed in Mexican politics and patronage, suffering from frequent allegations of corruption.

However, in the early 2000s, Mexico’s political leadership recognized a problem: oil production was falling and Pemex lacked the resources to invest in new fields to reverse the trend. Clearly, foreign investment was going to be needed to keep Mexico competitive in world oil markets. So, in August 2014, Mexico passed the laws necessary to open up the oil, gas, and power sectors to private companies, including foreign ones.

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Unfortunately, with oil prices taking a serious downturn, the timing of the opening was awful. Pemex was losing its monopoly at the same time its revenue was dropping and home currency was depreciating against the U.

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S. dollar, after it had accumulated enormous foreign currency debt.

Not surprisingly, in November 2015, Moody’s downgraded Pemex’s credit rating from A3 to Baa1, with a negative outlook. Without the sovereign support, the rating was put at a lowly Ba3. And Pemex’s problems have directly drained the central government: this month, the Mexican government announced over $4 billion in aid for the company.

Pemex has serious cash-flow problems and is not able to pay its suppliers on time. In late 2015, citing low oil prices, it announced that it would unilaterally extend payment terms on all contracts to 180 days from the previous 60-90. For suppliers dependent on short payment terms who were already under cash-flow stress from general industry conditions, these payment delays could cause serious financial problems, including bankruptcies. Accordingly, the trade credit insurance industry—which covers buyers’ failure to pay contractual trade obligations on the due date—is already seeing claims related to Pemex and its suppliers.

Except for people who remember the early 1980s, when Mexico defaulted following the high oil prices and debt run-up of the 1970s, Pemex’s problems were unthinkable just a few years ago. This is an example of the difficulty of predicting how commodity markets, politics and financial management can mix for any given country. However, while Pemex’s problems are serious for its suppliers and represent a drag on the economy, Mexico is still forecasted to grow 2.

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6% in 2016 and no wide political crisis is currently underway. Many other countries dependent on oil are not so lucky. Next month we will look at one with much more serious problems and risks to investors and suppliers: Brazil.

Haulers of Crude Finding Coverage Scarce

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HOUSTON—The recent spike in oil and natural gas production has led trucking companies to grow so quickly that they sometimes scramble to find qualified drivers. This has meant tightening coverage with a limited number of carriers and a market in “disarray,” Anthony Dorn, a broker with Sloan Mason Insurance Services, said today at the IRMI Energy Risk and Insurance Conference.

“Carriers have taken a bath on construction risks,” he said. “Only nine carriers will write crude hauling.”

There is a huge need for risk management in trucking right now, he added. “A lot of these are fly-by-night companies. They are running with drivers that have no experience, they are getting violations from the DOT left and right for not having licenses and adequate brakes on their trucks and they are running on dirt roads that aren’t made for 100,000 pound units,” Dorn said. “It’s a very risky place for underwriters. If we don’t do something as agents and as risk managers there will be fewer carriers.”

The recent downturn in the oil and gas market has also been a game-changer for some companies. Dorn predicts a “cleaning of the crop” of truckers. Inexperienced companies with new drivers will “fall by the wayside. What we are going to be left with are companies that are well-run with proper safety procedures in their fleet.”

Once that happens, he believes more carriers will enter the market. “But as of now, in general the whole market is in disarray,” he said.

He noted that agencies such as the Department of Transportation have vehicle reports available online, which insurers now frequently access when considering whether to take on a trucking company as a risk. He suggested that companies looking for coverage also check these reports and work closely with their risk managers and safety directors to correct any problems, such as drivers without adequate experience.

“There is a huge opportunity out there right now for risk managers to approach these companies and tell them, ‘If you don’t have a risk manager to help with your losses, you are not going to be able to find insurance.’ Right off the bat, I’d say 50% [of trucking companies] are declined as soon as they walk in the door,” Dorn said. As a result, he has seen companies declined by every insurer and forced to form a new LLC or even shut down.

Loren Henry, also a broker with Sloan Mason, said that another thing they are seeing as oil prices drop is companies formed to haul salt water for hydraulic fracturing looking to other opportunities. “They start hauling agricultural products and paper products, whatever there is that is not oil and gas related,” he said. “That is typically not going to be covered under their auto policy.” He advised fleet owners to be aware of this and communicate any changes to their broker to find out specifically what is covered.

“We have had some losses recently, where a company made a shift from what they were hauling because they had lost some saltwater accounts. They were hauling cattle and they had a loss and it wasn’t covered because it is not in the policy language,” Henry explained.

“I don’t know where all these water-haulers are going to go,” Dorn added. “You’re going to see massive fleets go on sale and you’ll get huge discounts on trucks. You are going to see some transitions.”

Dorn added that one of his clients is now hauling salt water with half of his trucks and cattle with the rest. He advised his client to form another LLC for the cattle-hauling if he expects to get insurance coverage, as insurers would cover one or the other, but not both.

Asked whether companies are hiring risk managers and if they are also listening to their advice, he said, “Yes, especially after they get their premium. When they go from $5,000 a unit to $12,000 a unit their ears perk up pretty quick. They are willing to do almost anything to get that pricing down. It’s sad because companies are actually being put out of business because their premiums are too high.”

He expects the next year to see a lot of changes. “A lot of companies will go by the wayside,” he said. “A lot of smaller companies will be gone—they will sell their trucks or be bought out by bigger fleets.”