Tag Archives: political risk

Protecting Key Executives in Global Hot Spots

Posted on by

The recent suicide bombing in Istanbul and the Paris bombing last November killed and injured innocent bystanders and sent shockwaves around the globe. Such attacks also cause organizations to question international travel out of fear of putting their key executives and employees in harm’s way.global travel

As the risk profile changes in some locations that were once considered safe, it is critical to reassess and more deeply examine company programs to protect business travelers abroad.

First of all, for companies and their insurance advisors, there is no substitute for great advance planning. If a company is contemplating overseas travel and can establish well in advance that there exists a need for key person insurance, the coverage is easier to obtain and more cost effective. The reality is that the heightened awareness around a dangerous trip often results in an insurance need being developed or uncovered with little notice. When this need arises, the underwriting process migrates from the traditional life and disability insurance market to the playing field of high limit or specialized risk underwriters.

In one notable example, a large U.S. company recently made a significant investment in a defense contractor. Shortly after the investment closed, the company named a new chief executive officer and sought to acquire $50,000,000 of key person life and disability insurance.

As of the day of the request, their insurance advisor had eight business days to secure the insurance before the CEO departed for the Middle East, with stops in such international hot spots as Iraq and Afghanistan. Because of the abbreviated time frame, traditional life and disability insurance was not an option. The advisor needed to turn to a specialty underwriter that deals with exceptionally large and complex human capital risks.

Armed with the CEO’s itinerary (see below) and details of the executive’s compensation and equity incentive agreement, the advisor had enough information to present the submission to the underwriters.

online pharmacy amaryl with best prices today in the USA

Within 72 hours, a policy was issued that covered the private equity firm’s loss of the CEO directly due to an accidental death or disability, as well as a result of acts of war or terrorism.

Few domestic life and disability carriers possess the ability to underwrite large risks when there is high-risk exposure in the world’s hot zones. Instead, companies and their brokers must work with large international insurers that are willing to deploy meaningful capacity.

online pharmacy aricept with best prices today in the USA

The easiest way for advisors to access these markets is through an experienced U.S.-based correspondent who is skilled at designing and underwriting coverage in these volatile locations. Local correspondents or managing general underwriters also serve to guide brokers through the regulatory complexities that go along with underwriting risks through surplus lines carriers—something most life and health producers have little experience with.

The best brokers are masters at uncovering details from their clients, documenting them and communicating them effectively to underwriters. A well-written cover memo will often be the basis for offering coverage and can be the primary source for pricing consideration. A complete itinerary coupled with security details are the underwriter’s key points of interest, so make sure the information is gathered and communicated as early as possible.

Frequently, specific plans will be classified when working with international defense contractors, but one way or the other, the basic information must be made available. When underwriting coverage in highly hostile areas, rates can vary based on multiple factors, such as security arrangements, travel vendors, length of stay and, in highly hostile areas, rates even vary down to specific latitude and longitude coordinates, often within a single city or locale.

No detail is too small for spelling out the need for the insurance and financial justification, including the purpose of the trip and the client’s specific duties and objectives. This is the information that sets apart a submission and makes it more likely for an underwriter to go out on a limb with preferential pricing and terms.

Keep in mind, when underwriting risks in highly volatile areas—with the propensity for rapid deterioration—it may not be possible to negotiate coverage or a rate guarantee for the entire duration of the client’s journey. It is essential to keep in mind that the best underwriting offers go to advisors who deliver the most detailed and accurate information.

Example of a CEO’s itinerary:

Day 1 – Depart Commercial Air for Dubai

Day 3 – Arrive in Baghdad, Iraq – Transport to Camp Butler

Day 4 – Depart Baghdad and arrive in Dubai

Day 5 – Depart Dubai arrive Kabul, Afghanistan – Transport to Camp Gibson

Day 6 – Fly to Kandahar, Afghanistan

Day 7 – Depart Kandahar, Afghanistan – fly to Abu Dhabi

Day 12 – Depart Abu Dhabi for U.S.

It is important that we don’t allow acts of terrorism to knock the wheels off our economy. Business travel and face-to-face meetings are key elements in making us what we are, so it’s imperative that we mitigate the associated risk whenever possible.

online pharmacy bactroban with best prices today in the USA

Oil and Politics: Brazil’s Petrobras Scandal

Posted on by

PetrobasLast month, we focused on Mexico and specifically the state-owned oil company Pemex as a risk for companies selling or investing into Latin America. We saw that Pemex represents a drag on Mexican fiscal accounts and is imposing losses on suppliers and investors. This month, we turn our gaze to Brazil: it is similar to Mexico in that it has a dominant, politically charged state-owned oil company, but different because the scale of the crisis is much more severe, as are the risks to suppliers and investors.

Brazil is undergoing a major economic and political crisis, and its state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), is right at the center of the trouble. Petrobras shares some of the same challenges as Pemex: It started as an entirely state-owned firm, was used as an instrument of government policy from inception and took on enormous quantities of debt in recent times, exemplified by its $11 billion debt issue in 2013—the largest on record for emerging markets.

Brazil, however, recognizing earlier than Mexico the necessity of foreign investment for a viable oil industry, opened up the sector in 1997 and eventually reduced the government shareholding to 64% (direct plus indirect). Petrobras expanded into deepwater areas in Angola and the Gulf of Mexico and became one of the few national oil companies able to equally compete with companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and Total.

In 2014, information about the extent of corruption between Petrobras board members, various politicians and business executives not only came to light, but also sparked official investigations and arrests. President Dilma Rouseff has been temporarily removed from office pending a trial by the Senate. The official charge against her is manipulating the federal budget by directing state banks to support spending programs. She was the chair of Petrobras when the corruption allegedly occurred, however, and she and her party (Partido dos Trabalhadores or PT) are perceived by many as at least partly responsible for the scandal.

It is likely that Rouseff will be permanently removed from office within six months, but the uncertainty does not end there: As of this writing, two cabinet ministers have been removed from office, and six more are under investigation. Dozens of politicians and executives have been convicted in connection with the scandal, and prosecutors have recovered $795 million in stolen money. The economy of Brazil shrank 3.8% in 2015 and is projected to shrink another 3.5% in 2016. Moody’s downgraded Petrobras to Ba2 in December 2015, and S&P cut the sovereign rating to BB with a negative outlook in February. With the Zika virus now causing a global health emergency and the Olympics beginning in August, one wonders how many more stresses Brazil can take before serious political unrest breaks out.

Like with Pemex, the Petrobras crisis is increasing risks to suppliers already: There are trade credit insurance claims stemming from suppliers to Petrobras, and the wider Brazilian economic downturn (combined with the commodity price trough) is giving rise to other credit losses. But the Brazilian crisis goes well beyond trade credit risk. Brazil is a $2.2 trillion economy and one of the largest bond issuers in the emerging markets. As a result, this crisis has global implications: Eurasia Group has Brazil as one of its top 10 global risks for 2016.

Mexico and Brazil are not the only countries dependent on state-owned oil (or other natural resource) companies that are facing major challenges: Venezuela, Ecuador, Nigeria, Angola, Russia—the list goes on and on. In Brazil, however, there are some mitigating circumstances that reveal a silver lining. First, 85% of Brazil’s sovereign debt is held domestically, meaning it is less affected by currency depreciation and is easier to reschedule. Provided Brazil takes on some painful fiscal reforms, the country can dig itself out of the economic crisis. Secondly, so far, officials have been able to investigate and prosecute some of the parties responsible, despite the defendants being some of the more powerful people in Brazil.

There is hope that Brazil’s institutions will emerge all the stronger for being able to correct wrongdoing, which may set the stage for a more just Brazil and a better investment and credit risk environment in the long run. In the meantime, we are likely to see severe market and political volatility. It is a good idea to closely monitor your exposure in Brazil and in other countries dependent on highly indebted state-owned natural resource companies.

Mexico’s Pemex Illustrates Trade Credit Risks in Latin America

Posted on by

With all the focus on the Middle East and Europe, it is easy to lose track of Latin America as a region with major risk issues. Companies investing and selling to Latin America have become accustomed to viewing its largest economies—Mexico and Brazil—as relatively low-risk countries with promising growth prospects. That perception has recently changed, however, largely because of a common ingredient: large state-owned oil companies on which the government depends.

With a $1.26 trillion economy and population of 122 million, Mexico is a key market for the United States and Canada, particularly since the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Some $535 billion in trade occurred between the U.S. and Mexico in 2014. From 2000 through 2012, U.S. foreign direct investment into Mexico totaled $291.7 billion.

With a monopoly (until recently) on oil production and fuel distribution, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is a colossus—the largest company in the country, representing about one-third of all government tax revenues and approximately 5% of Mexican exports. From its origin in 1938, Pemex has also been a political entity, as it was nationalized at a time when foreign companies dominated the oil sector. Since then, it has become enmeshed in Mexican politics and patronage, suffering from frequent allegations of corruption.

However, in the early 2000s, Mexico’s political leadership recognized a problem: oil production was falling and Pemex lacked the resources to invest in new fields to reverse the trend. Clearly, foreign investment was going to be needed to keep Mexico competitive in world oil markets. So, in August 2014, Mexico passed the laws necessary to open up the oil, gas, and power sectors to private companies, including foreign ones.

buy arava online blackmenheal.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/jpg/arava.html no prescription pharmacy

Unfortunately, with oil prices taking a serious downturn, the timing of the opening was awful. Pemex was losing its monopoly at the same time its revenue was dropping and home currency was depreciating against the U.

buy minocin online blackmenheal.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/jpg/minocin.html no prescription pharmacy

S. dollar, after it had accumulated enormous foreign currency debt.

Not surprisingly, in November 2015, Moody’s downgraded Pemex’s credit rating from A3 to Baa1, with a negative outlook. Without the sovereign support, the rating was put at a lowly Ba3. And Pemex’s problems have directly drained the central government: this month, the Mexican government announced over $4 billion in aid for the company.

Pemex has serious cash-flow problems and is not able to pay its suppliers on time. In late 2015, citing low oil prices, it announced that it would unilaterally extend payment terms on all contracts to 180 days from the previous 60-90. For suppliers dependent on short payment terms who were already under cash-flow stress from general industry conditions, these payment delays could cause serious financial problems, including bankruptcies. Accordingly, the trade credit insurance industry—which covers buyers’ failure to pay contractual trade obligations on the due date—is already seeing claims related to Pemex and its suppliers.

Except for people who remember the early 1980s, when Mexico defaulted following the high oil prices and debt run-up of the 1970s, Pemex’s problems were unthinkable just a few years ago. This is an example of the difficulty of predicting how commodity markets, politics and financial management can mix for any given country. However, while Pemex’s problems are serious for its suppliers and represent a drag on the economy, Mexico is still forecasted to grow 2.

buy stendra online blackmenheal.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/jpg/stendra.html no prescription pharmacy

6% in 2016 and no wide political crisis is currently underway. Many other countries dependent on oil are not so lucky. Next month we will look at one with much more serious problems and risks to investors and suppliers: Brazil.

A Trump Presidency Poses Top Risk to Global Economy

Posted on by

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Donald Trump presidency poses one of the greatest current global risks. Indeed, Trump ranks as the sixth overall potential risk to the global economy, and based on a 25-point scale, the research firm rated the risk approximately equal to the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

The EIU, research and analysis sister company to the Economist, ranks risks based on both impact and probability, with a Trump presidency presenting considerable potential impact, but moderate probability. The EIU’s assessment focused in particular on Trump’s hostility toward free trade (most notably NAFTA), aggressive rhetoric on China, and “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism.

online pharmacy neurontin with best prices today in the USA

“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war—and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” EIU analysts wrote. “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”

The firm concluded with a prediction that, while it believes Trump will most likely lose to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, that probability could change in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.

In such a scenario, the trickle-down effect within the American political machine poses noteworthy risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” the report says.

online pharmacy antabuse with best prices today in the USA

But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The firm’s overall top 10 risks by point ranking are:

economist intelligence unit top global economy risks